With whom? DUP? Nope. Brexshit? 200+ added with 0 = the same number. Split parliament with a weak government whoever gets elected.

I just don’t see anything other than a small Conservative majority at this point.

I think it is about 70% probability of a CON majority and about 30% for a hung parliament with CON as the largest party.

 

Note that without a majority Boris Johnson is effectively finished. Think the best that those who don't want a Tory majority can hope for is a very large turnout of young voters and large amounts of tactical voting - that would seal a hung parliament and also a complete cluster**k as to what happens next !

The polls are identical to last time vs Mad May. They are tools for influencing public opinion, that's all. I do think there's a possibility for shocks, such as a few north east seats going Tory due to the level of brainwashing and how popular the Tory press is there, just like with Kensington, or large swings to Tory that won't reflect the rest of the night, like last time.

At any rate it'll be a fascinating night and without any annual leave left (who'd have predicted a December election) I will be phoning in sick to work on the 13th December after a long night watching the results.

December 13th = Work From Home

I'm hoping that we'll get some sort of minority government forming with Labour/Lib Dem/SNP leigslating and backing a second referendum, or perhaps they'll even get a majority between them.

 

A second referendum is the only way I can see Brexit being sorted quickly.

Edited November 26, 20195 yr by Envoirment

By which you mean us remaining lol.

By which you mean us remaining lol.

 

That's the quickest way to sort out brexit. Although if leave still wins and the deal is chosen, then parliament will have to start coming together to get it delivered. Which would likely hasten the progress of brexit a little.

 

People are in for a rude awakening if brexit does continue to push ahead though come late next year. It'll likely come down to no deal vs transition extension once again given the transition period can be extended by up to 4 years IIRC. Boris doing a trade deal with the EU by December 2020 (assuming the WAB passes through parliament relatively quickly) is a fallacy. It then becomes a no deal vs extension battle yet again.

Edited November 26, 20195 yr by Envoirment

At any rate it'll be a fascinating night and without any annual leave left (who'd have predicted a December election) I will be phoning in sick to work on the 13th December after a long night watching the results.

 

 

Disgraceful. :angry: However allowed under the circumstances. :D

 

 

Wonder how many Labour voters will get depressed on 13th and phone in sick. :o

Edited November 27, 20195 yr by common sense

I'm hoping that we'll get some sort of minority government forming with Labour/Lib Dem/SNP leigslating and backing a second referendum, or perhaps they'll even get a majority between them.

 

A second referendum is the only way I can see Brexit being sorted quickly.

 

The only way Brexit will be sorted quickly is a Tory majority and we leave Jan. 31st.

 

GET BREXIT DONE.

 

As The Rt. Hon. Boris Johnson says : It's oven ready. :D

Edited November 27, 20195 yr by common sense

It'll likely come down to no deal vs transition extension once again given the transition period can be extended by up to 4 years IIRC. Boris doing a trade deal with the EU by December 2020 (assuming the WAB passes through parliament relatively quickly) is a fallacy. It then becomes a no deal vs extension battle yet again.

 

 

Boris and other ministers have said there'll be no extension for trade deals.

660,000 registrations on the last day, 459,000 under 35. Sadly couldn't break that half a million mark, but still impressive.

660,000 registrations on the last day, 459,000 under 35. Sadly couldn't break that half a million mark, but still impressive.

Wonder how many of those will decide to vote?

Last day registration age breakdown just released.

 

Under 25 ..... 252,444

25 to 34 ..... 207,224

35 to 44 ..... 98,823

45 to 54 .... 57,146

55 to 64 ..... 29,420

65 to 74 .... 9,959

Over 75 .... 4,645

The only way Brexit will be sorted quickly is a Tory majority and we leave Jan. 31st.

 

GET BREXIT DONE.

 

As The Rt. Hon. Boris Johnson says : It's oven ready. :D

How many more times do you need to be told that it will not be done and dusted by the end of January even if we do leave? Leaving is only the first part of a very long process.

 

Getting it done is just another of Johnson's endless list of lies.

Lewis Goodall has been out and about in the Home Counties and is reporting this on Twitter

 

-Think Tories really do have a LibDem problem in south east which national polls not revealing.

-Lots of lifelong Tories not voting Con for first time.

-But problem isn’t confined to Brexit. We hear a lot about Labour voters who aren’t voting Lab because of Corbyn. But not much about Tories not voting Tory because of Boris Johnson. But there are a lot here.

-Especially older women

-“buffoon” is the word you hear repeatedly

-what is notable is how many Conservatives felt they could vote Tory in 2017, even after Brexit was assumed to be a fact, who don’t feel they can now.

-connected with change of leadership/change of direction/abandonment of much attempt at party balance, as Cameron and May tried.

Edited November 27, 20195 yr by common sense

Wonder how many of those will decide to vote?

Logically, you'd expect most of them to vote. Why register at the last minute and then decide not to bother voting after all? OTOH, people can be very unpredictable :lol:

An interesting article by (Labour-supporting) Peter Kellner on an alternative Lib Dem strategy.

 

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics...ction-coalition

The talk this morning seems to be that Corbyn refused last night to apologise for anti-semitism when asked to three times by Andrew Neil.

 

A big YouGov poll expected this afternoon.

Edited November 27, 20195 yr by common sense