Harve has alerted me that Reading West has slipped back from 'likely' to merely 'lean' Conservative with this MRP update. The hope, it burns.

 

It's a shame that we're only getting the initial release and one last minute update to the MRP this year, I'm sure it updated quite a few more times than that last time.

 

Interesting to note that the SNP candidate in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is still projected to win 29% of the vote despite his candidacy being suspended.

Everyone get to the polls and get the evil landed gentrý party out. Consign them to history, to dusty tomes where they're trampling over rights and thr working classes and conquering nations and bragging about it at their posh boy clubs, where they belong!! They are not fit to rule.

Labour 9% ahead in Portsmouth South is BANGING but Conservatives being 9% ahead in Southampton Itchen is MINGING.

 

Also working basically the whole day in Winchester which is a dead heat in this model is going to be super fun!

The You Gov poll looks pretty accurate to what will happen imo.

I was hoping St Ives would be closer. Might have suffered from the Lib Dem collapse. Truro & Falmouth & Camborne & Redruth are both just close enough for Labour for me to not give up hope completely, but still a 'likely Conservative' is sad, Cornish people voting for Conservatives is always weird, they should feel the effects of poor economic choices and Brexit more keenly than most.

The You Gov poll looks pretty accurate to what will happen imo.

 

Yougov election centre https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

It's depressing viewing!

My only vague realistic hope is that Boris Johnson gets deprived of having a majority, because otherwise we are so far beyond FUCKED.

That MRP poll has the Brexit party coming second in Barnsley Central with 30%. :o I know Barnsley voted leave but can't see it being that high.

Edited December 11, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

That MRP poll has the Brexit party coming second in Barnsley Central with 30%. :o I know Barnsley voted leave but can't see it being that high.

 

2nd behind labour?

That MRP poll has the Brexit party coming second in Barnsley Central with 30%. :o I know Barnsley voted leave but can't see it being that high.

 

 

2nd behind labour?

 

I have had some suspicions that in some of the Brexit-supporting Labour heartlands that long-held generational anti-Tory feelings will mean that Leavers in those constituencies still won't vote Conservative, and go with the Brexit Party instead. Although I have a feeling that constituency might be inaccurate - I also note that the YouGov MRP give "Others" in Ashfield around 10% of the vote, even though bookies seem to treat it as neck and neck between Ashfield Independents (who have nearly all the seats on the local council) and the Tories, with Labour not too far behind.

I have had some suspicions that in some of the Brexit-supporting Labour heartlands that long-held generational anti-Tory feelings will mean that Leavers in those constituencies still won't vote Conservative, and go with the Brexit Party instead. Although I have a feeling that constituency might be inaccurate - I also note that the YouGov MRP give "Others" in Ashfield around 10% of the vote, even though bookies seem to treat it as neck and neck between Ashfield Independents (who have nearly all the seats on the local council) and the Tories, with Labour not too far behind.

 

 

This happened in 2017 and until the election campaign started I believed the same would happen but im not too sure now as a lot of people seem to have decided to just support Johnston on Brexit. If it doesn't happen Labour will keep their northern wall seats and we could be in hung parliament territory or even better!

@1204868699808784387

 

I'm absolutely not prepared for tomorrow

 

 

Maybe Boris' phone-gate scandal has been the news story to finally stick and damage the Tories' standing at the last second? FFS I don't want to still be disappointed when it turns out they still get a majority.

2nd behind labour?

 

 

Yes of course. No chance of Labour losing that seat. Rock solid red. :) The neighbouring seat, Penistone and Stocksbridge is set to go Tory though. One they need for a majority really. Well Electoral Calculus thinks so anyway. Will be listening out for that in the early hours as I have cousins there.

Edited December 11, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

This happened in 2017 and until the election campaign started I believed the same would happen but im not too sure now as a lot of people seem to have decided to just support Johnston on Brexit. If it doesn't happen Labour will keep their northern wall seats and we could be in hung parliament territory or even better!

 

Many Barnsley people would rather die than vote Tory though Steve. Mining town and they remember Thatcher and the miners strike of '84-'85. You'd be lynched if you went in a pub and mentioned her name there. :o Hatred of the Tories has passed down through the generations. Bit like The Sun in Liverpool.

Edited December 11, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

In the interests of balanceTM *, all of the other polls today and yesterday show no movement, some with much bigger Tory leads. And even that one could still deliver a Tory majority. So we're essentially hoping that all the polls are wrong.

 

* And also because I have no faith in Britain to vote properly and don't feel like hope is helpful for my mental state right now.

It doesn't look like there are any polls today showing the Tories pulling further ahead at least? Opinium has Labour gaining 3 on the Tories as well and the rest are no change. But absolutely, the hope is for Labour to beat all of the polls, it's just a very small encouraging sign that the best poll Labour have had all campaign was as late as today, so it's possible they're making a very last second surge.

My prediction is:

 

355 CON

215 LAB

42 SNP

13 LD

9 DUP

6 SF

4 PC

2 SDLP

1 ALL

1 GRN

1 Claire Wright

1 Lindsay Hoyle

 

That adds up to 650 right.

* And also because I have no faith in Britain to vote properly and don't feel like hope is helpful for my mental state right now.

 

 

There's no such thing as voting "properly" though. Who can say whether a Tory or Labour administration's right for the country at this time.

Edited December 11, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas