I'm starting to believe my wife when she says we'll never leave the EU. :angry: :( We've been told that we were leaving on Friday and that's been postponed. If we don't leave I'll never vote in a referendum again, if there's one in my lifetime.

 

Ive been consoling my friends who also feel the same (we live in strange times when Remainers are consoling Brexiters and telling them to be more optimistic!) but this doesnt mean we never leave, it's the result of an appalling corrupt fantasy campaign that promised the earth with no way of delivering it - we said this 3 years ago and no-one believed us, preferring the fantasy version. It was never going to be easy, and it still isn't - even if we get agreement to leave, or even if we leave with no deal at all, we have still got YEARS of trade deals to sort out with the EU and with the rest of the world- nobody trades excuslively on WTO terms because it's rubbish, it's the bare minimum (it has to be or else everyone would be on them!) The best they've come up with in 3 years are a handful of small countries who've agreed to stay on the same terms that we are on right now, and Liam Fox is bigging up deals which economically are of little consequence.

 

 

If there is to be a second referendum, the mechanics of it would need to be considered a hell of a lot more than putting Leave/Remain in front of the public. The difficulty would be determing what that would be.

 

It could be May’s Deal or Remain, a two stage test of i) Leave/Remain, ii) if we leave May’s Deal/Free Trade Deal

 

I don't think Leave/remain will solve anything as that what's got us into the mess in the first place, it's too vague. The only option is to put a deal in front of people, the best that Parliament can agree on (or May's Deal if they can't agree) with a yes or no option. Yes we accept the deal or no we don't and we stay as we are. People will know exactly what they are voting for, no flip-flopping - and if what Parliament comes up with isn't May's deal then it needs to get a Green Light from the EU in principle to avoid another 2 years of wasted time. At the end of the day, it's their club, we are leaving it, and they can have any kind of deal they want - but it will mean all 27 agreeing to it, so any ridiculous promises will never get delivered, so it needs pre-ratification. Personally I think if the UK goes Norway option a lot of Brexiteers will say "No" because there's no say, and some Remainers may say "yes" just to get it over with, so anything could happen.

What a great speech by Ian Blackford in the commons there in opposition to Mays view of proceedings this week!

LBC saying May planned to bring her MV3 back to the Commons tomorrow but needed to get the DUP and ERG to promise to all support it in order for Bercow to allow it. After a phone call to Arlene Foster at 1pm, the DUP still won't agree to vote for her deal.

 

Sky News "A DUP spokesman says the party's position on Theresa May's Brexit deal "remains unchanged".

Edited March 25, 20196 yr by Common Sense

In the commons there she basically seemed to stand up to the ERG & DUP for the first time saying without voting for her deal there will be no Brexit and she says there will be no vote on her deal this week after all so as you said above she hasn't got their support.

 

Steve Baker and Nigel Dodds angry looking!!

What a great speech by Ian Blackford in the commons there in opposition to Mays view of proceedings this week!

The only party of reason, sanity and opposition to this farce has been the SNP

They should revoke their Westminster seats if Brexit goes through - now that would be radical nationalism ;)

LBC saying May planned to bring her MV3 back to the Commons tomorrow but needed to get the DUP and ERG to promise to all support it in order for Bercow to allow it. After a phone call to Arlene Foster at 1pm, the DUP still won't agree to vote for her deal.

 

Sky News "A DUP spokesman says the party's position on Theresa May's Brexit deal "remains unchanged".

 

I don't get why she is trying so hard to convince the extreme Brexiteers - surely they are pinning their hopes on us getting No Deal by default? All May's deal does is create a shitload of admin and carry on this mess for another 2 years.

 

What the DUP want is not possible I don't think, I'd be doubtful if she ever got them onside.

The only party of reason, sanity and opposition to this farce has been the SNP

Erm, the Lib Dems have never wavered from their opposition to leaving. They were also first to call for a referendum on the deal.

 

A great yet sad outlook of how the hell this all happened in the first place, Been waiting for this and he didn't disappoint <3

Erm, the Lib Dems have never wavered from their opposition to leaving. They were also first to call for a referendum on the deal.

Who?

 

They’re so irrelevant that nobody even knows Vince Cable stood down. They also lose points for loudly calling for a second go of the EU Ref and in the same breath telling Scotland to get back in its box. Their attitude towards Scotland makes me sick

Haha I was gonna mention the Lib Dems too but didn't think that would go down well with you!!

If there was another referendum or people's vote, I feel like the options would be something like:

 

1. May's deal

2. A deal which includes single market access (EFTA/Customs Union)

3. Remain/revoke article 50

 

Then there would have to be some sort of minimum vote % put in place to uphold whichever option wins. Say 35% (just over 1/3rd)? The issue with the above though is that you will get a split between May's deal for those who want to leave completely/without freedom of movement and those who would prefer to stay in the single market. That would make it quite easy for the remain/revoke article 50 option to win.

 

Therefore, you may have to have two votes. One vote confirming to leave and another on how we leave. A remain/leave question along the lines of:

 

Now the options for leaving have been made clear, do you want to proceed leaving the eu or revoke article 50 and remain?

 

1. Leave

2. Remain

 

If leave wins then something like:

 

How would you like the leave the EU:

 

1. May's deal

2. A deal with single market access (customs union)

3. Become a member of the EFTA

4. No deal*

 

*Highly doubt no deal will be included in a vote. If it was, I fear it may win.

I’ve also said No Brexit was a more likely outcome than No Deal. Anyone who suggests No Deal is fine seriously needs their head examining. Revoke the whole bloody lot - it’s a sham, a false utopia created by nasty right wingers that partly succeeded in pinning the working mans problems on globalisation and migrants. They are not the problems - it’s past UK governments failing to put in the necessary infrastructure in place and not handling immigration in a pragmatic way. Our media is poorly managed, allowing Murdoch to put his agenda in many media channels.

Edited March 25, 20196 yr by ScottyEm

I still think a softer Brexit option like EFTA is the most likely. MPs may to have sign up to a compromise where it is put back to the people but I still have that as a less likely option at the moment (no majority in Parliament for a 2nd referendum).

 

Those who think No Deal or May's Deal are viable still, are quite frankly, deluded.

 

Also: as I said in January - the ERG are a busted flush. They overplayed their hand, and the move to vote no confidence in Theresa May back in December kind of killed them off. Thankfully.

The erg are mental, do they think May will be replaced by one of them?? Is that what all this was about?

I still think a softer Brexit option like EFTA is the most likely. MPs may to have sign up to a compromise where it is put back to the people but I still have that as a less likely option at the moment (no majority in Parliament for a 2nd referendum).

 

Those who think No Deal or May's Deal are viable still, are quite frankly, deluded.

 

Also: as I said in January - the ERG are a busted flush. They overplayed their hand, and the move to vote no confidence in Theresa May back in December kind of killed them off. Thankfully.

 

I agree - think right now we're headed to a longer extension and possibly end up with a soft Brexit option.

 

The ERG are crazy. I mean they're a bunch of loons as it is, if they don't get their fantasy ideology through now (which I agree they choked with the failed leadership bid) then I can't see how they think getting Mogg in would help. The hardliners have backed themselves in to a terrible corner.

If there was another referendum or people's vote, I feel like the options would be something like:

 

1. May's deal

2. A deal which includes single market access (EFTA/Customs Union)

3. Remain/revoke article 50

 

Then there would have to be some sort of minimum vote % put in place to uphold whichever option wins. Say 35% (just over 1/3rd)? The issue with the above though is that you will get a split between May's deal for those who want to leave completely/without freedom of movement and those who would prefer to stay in the single market. That would make it quite easy for the remain/revoke article 50 option to win.

 

Therefore, you may have to have two votes. One vote confirming to leave and another on how we leave. A remain/leave question along the lines of:

 

Now the options for leaving have been made clear, do you want to proceed leaving the eu or revoke article 50 and remain?

 

1. Leave

2. Remain

 

If leave wins then something like:

 

How would you like the leave the EU:

 

1. May's deal

2. A deal with single market access (customs union)

3. Become a member of the EFTA

4. No deal*

 

*Highly doubt no deal will be included in a vote. If it was, I fear it may win.

 

But a lot of Leavers would consider the referendum invalid if you didn't at least include that option...

No, I also highly doubt 'no deal' would be included in a vote. It's an easy concept for the voters to misunderstand (some think 'no deal' means 'no brexit'), and the reality of that outcome is the worst possible outcome for everyone bar disaster capitalists. Something along the lines of 'Reject all deals and unilaterally leave the EU, trading under WTO rules' might pass muster for a referendum commission, but I still think that it's unlikely. When governments put an issue to the people on a referendum, they need to be prepared to deal with any of the possible results. I think we can all agree that the biggest mistake in 2016 was that the government were fundamentally unprepared for the Leave result. I do not think they would be prepared to enact no deal. 'A lot of Leavers' (read: a small vocal minority) considering it invalid won't stop them from discarding that as a possibility.

 

I can only see a referendum happening under the questions of EITHER May's Deal/Revoke A50 or Keep negotiating (with the expectation of an EFTA-like deal)/Revoke A50. Runoffs and multiple options will muddy the issues and debates. The premise of the former would be, 'this is what we have come up with, do you think we should disregard Parliament and take it, or should we now, knowing what the process of leaving the EU looks like, remain'. The premise of the latter would be 'Parliament have decisively rejected the results of the government's negotiations to leave the EU, should we renegotiate with the premise of discarding our red lines to end in a close relationship with Europe, or should we remain in the EU'.

 

 

No, I also highly doubt 'no deal' would be included in a vote. It's an easy concept for the voters to misunderstand (some think 'no deal' means 'no brexit'), and the reality of that outcome is the worst possible outcome for everyone bar disaster capitalists. Something along the lines of 'Reject all deals and unilaterally leave the EU, trading under WTO rules' might pass muster for a referendum commission, but I still think that it's unlikely. When governments put an issue to the people on a referendum, they need to be prepared to deal with any of the possible results. I think we can all agree that the biggest mistake in 2016 was that the government were fundamentally unprepared for the Leave result. I do not think they would be prepared to enact no deal. 'A lot of Leavers' (read: a small vocal minority) considering it invalid won't stop them from discarding that as a possibility.

 

OK, lets say for the sake of argument, that only half of 2016's Leavers wanted No Deal (I suspect the real figure was higher than that, but that's another issue). If they then boycotted a referendum in which No Deal was not an option, it would severely undermine the mandate for whatever the result turned out to be.

 

For example : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Northern...and_border_poll

Edited March 26, 20196 yr by vidcapper