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Based on that poll, Johnson, Duncan Smith and Mogg would all lose their seats to Labour with Raab's seat going to the Lib Dems. Esther McVey would lose Tatton (once one of the safest Tory seats in the country) with Labour also gaining a string of seats along the south coast in Hastings, Worthing and Bournemouth.
Imagine the polls ig we had a leftist with vision in charge!!! Corbyn was at 45% ven vs a disgustingly hostile press and British establishment!
Be interesting to see how the Tories react seeing as the likelihood is the party report will acquit Boris of major wrongdoing - not sure that will be good enough for the public, can see the turn being even bigger if the book isn't thrown at him. You've got such a mix of MPs at the moment in the Conservatives, a lot of them will have never seen the polls go this low so will be worried and you've got other MPs who will have seen this in 2010-2015 and probably be not panicked at all. Genuinely not even sure a change of leader gives the Tories the pass they're expecting.

I said at the time of the last election that Johnson wouldn't lead the Tories into the next one. The opposition parties should have been preparing for that possibility all along. The Tories have made a habit of dumping their leader and convincing the electorate that we have a completely new government that has nothing to do with its immediate predecessor. If they try that trick again, there are two major lines of attack for the opposition.

 

1) When you (i.e. MPs) voted for Johnson as leader, you knew exactly what he was like, yet you still voted for him. You are, therefore, partly responsible for his disastrous term in office.

 

2) You have won the last three elections, only to dump the leader within a couple years or so. Why should we believe that your current leader will fare any better? If we vote for you, who will we get as PM for the second half of the term?

As awesome as these polls are to look let's be honest as soon as Boris is replaced they'll be the other way round again
As awesome as these polls are to look let's be honest as soon as Boris is replaced they'll be the other way round again

 

Unlikely, none of the candidates have the Boris factor. Inevitably they will rise again in the polls as you would expect, but think we have to remember this year the big squeeze is going to be on rising inflation & energy price increases. So while it will hit the poorest the hardest, I think you a lot people will feel the extra cost, and then add that to a tax increase already then people will look for a change.

As awesome as these polls are to look let's be honest as soon as Boris is replaced they'll be the other way round again

The Tories, and their friends in the press, will try and pull off their familiar trick and pretend there is a completely new government. They will, of course, hope people forget that they thought that it was an outrageous crime against democracy when Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair without an election.

 

The opposition parties should avoid talking about an "unelected PM". After all, that is how our democracy works. Post-war, there have been more changes of PM as a result of the ruling party changing leader than by a change of ruling party at an election. They should concentrate on the fact that Tory MPs knew exactly what Johnson was like, but voted for him to be leader anyway. It is their fault that we ended up with such a hopelessly incompetent blob of flesh as PM.

Westminster voting intention:

 

LAB: 43% (+4)

CON: 30% (-5)

LDEM: 9% (-3)

GRN: 7% (+2)

REFUK: 4% (-)

 

via

@RedfieldWilton

, 17 Jan

Chgs. w/ 10 Jan

Corbyn, with an actual vision, would be on 48-50%

 

There's about a 3rd of people who are probably true blue Tories, so knocking the Tories 3% below that is quite impressive.

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Not that bothered about the reasons behind it tbh, the Tories are setting themselves on fire - I'm just gonna enjoy it for what it is!

It's encouraging to now see Labour consistently polling above 40% rather than it simply being a collapse of the Tories into 'don't knows' or apathy.

 

If the Tory bleed continues, we may actually end up with a Labour leader being 20 points ahead. Who would've thought that Twitter meme could actually come true :o

The Tories knocked down the Tories, not neoliberal Starmer.

 

Most Governments cause the failure themselves rather than the opposition making massive strides. Just look at 2017 and the dementia tax. The Tories are causing their own downfall and it looks like the damage is going to be long lasting.

It was the same in the 90s too with New Labour the tories were tired and in power for 18 years, fighting amongst themselves and corrupt!
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