I don't understand why the both of you do this song and dance over and over — so pointless.

I don't understand why the both of you do this song and dance over and over — so pointless.

 

Just can't help myself when a conspiracy theorist pipes up.

Ok, I'm locking this thread until you both cool down.

 

Do we have any evidence Rooney votes Labour lol?

 

So then, which Labour it’s are threatening to cross the floor?

 

I don't know, Keir obviously secretly defected a few months ago so.. my best guess would be Rosie Duffield and before he defected to ChangeUK/FlopIndependent Group I would have said "Mike Gapes". Yes, that's actually a person, and not a sentence.

@1448570209812484098

 

Boris enjoying a lovely holiday whilst polling ten points ahead x

We've sat at this uncomfortable status quo for over a year now as the government lurches through a continual period of 'Crisis? Which crisis?'. Historically, oppositions are regularly matching the government in polls even when it's not this unpopular and inept. Which is a terrible look for the current set of opposition.

 

Starmer and his allies are fast running out of excuses, his conference speech is done, he can go out and speak to people with the country opening up, what else is going to change? Any of their comments regarding 'electability' are starting to look more ridiculous by the day. Any other leader would be 20 points ahead.

Keir Starmer putting the government on notice going well - get rid of this dishonest, boring, unprincipled waste of space. Even if Rayner as caretaker - should be able to land a few blows on the Tories.

What do we think the likelihood is of an earlier election than May 2024?

I reckon May 2023 is the most likely. There's a big risk of a Covid inquiry if the Tories wait out the whole term and 4 years seems more in line with the natural electoral rhythm of the country than 5.

 

There was talk of a winter election at Tory conference because it'd depress turnout and they'd be favoured but I think they'd be warned off doing that before actually putting it into practice, I can't recall many people actually enjoying the fact of the 2019 one.

Everything the Tories does is cynical and to put new or people who don't normally vote off. Mind you, one could argue with Starmer at the helm of Labour they need not even bother - people miles prefer Johnson. If anything it will be more interesting (in a morbid way) to see how far the ultra right wing who are very anti green policies, woke or any public spending can pull Johnson's strings. There is a large unhappiness with him in the far right press especially about the perceived influence of Carrie Johnson.

@1448570209812484098

 

Boris enjoying a lovely holiday whilst polling ten points ahead x

Lord this is just depressing

I do wonder if things will change at all come the Autumn budget and this winter looking to be shit? If the UK/Europe have a cold winter this year, things will get quite bad I feel.

I feel that the crisis will flow over the tories because the narrative has now been established post brexit about who and what the parties stand for and it’ll be hard to remove that. Even a thousand deaths a day last year didnt so a bit of economic turbulence won’t.

 

It’s like Scotland post referendum the SNP rule all around them because the narrative is dominated by them.

Edited October 15, 20213 yr by steve201

Any other leader from tge left would be 20 points ahead!!!!

 

It is more difficult to compete in a de-facto ONE PARTY STATE, but come on! Even Corbyn was doing better than this even with the ENTIRE ONE PARTY STATE AND HIS OWN PARTY attacking him relentlessly and with thr BBC calling him a communist at evey turn lol x

Any other leader from tge left would be 20 points ahead!!!!

 

It is more difficult to compete in a de-facto ONE PARTY STATE, but come on! Even Corbyn was doing better than this even with the ENTIRE ONE PARTY STATE AND HIS OWN PARTY attacking him relentlessly and with thr BBC calling him a communist at evey turn lol x

 

based and true.

 

Yeah, because he was visible, he was offering an alternative, he was pointing out what he'd do if he'd get in power. The media establishment of the UK hated him for it and did everything they could to call him a monster to ensure the greatest number of people also hated him. They're not doing that with Starmer. He's not a threat, no one cares for his milquetoast vague posturing. So there's no need.

 

And because of that, because there is no alternative route out of this, nothing offering change, you get to see a percentage of the Tory bloc aligning with 'well they're the government and no one else is any good so we'll say them by default' and a percentage of the bloc who would vote Labour if they were more involved in presenting an alternative picture of how the country would look while governing are aligning with 'Greens/not voting'.

 

Labour not challenging 'there is no alternative', negatively campaigning, reactively campaigning, all of it is terrible politics from them and the entire opposition needs a complete reboot into how they're approaching the upcoming campaign (get freaking populist, it's obviously the successful game in town in the internet age!) - there could be one in 18 months.

Also, aside from general Starmer Labour shit/Corbyn Labour good discourse, here's an interesting article on how the Tories are STILL leading in the polls:

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polli...ng-in-the-polls

 

The success of the Conservatives is in part down to them being no longer, in essence, the Tory party, but the Boris Johnson party.

The Tories have been in office for over 11 years now, and one would be forgiven for thinking at least a portion of the public do feel the Conservatives have gone on for long enough, that those who still get angry about Gordon Brown “selling the gold” would now find something irritating about the successive Tory governments too.

 

But not so! Or rather, less so. When you consider the churn in leadership and key player positions that those 11 years have seen, and contrast it with the relative stability of New Labour, one shouldn’t be surprised by the findings of a recent Redfield and Wilton survey for the New Statesman. Voters were found to say Johnson’s Conservatives have little in common with David Cameron’s Tories – a feeling most intense in England’s northern regions, the part of the country that swung most heavily to Johnson in 2019.

 

We often have far more of a discussion about Labour than we do the other end of the equation is all. It's idiotic of voters that they see Cameron's Tories and Johnson's Tories as different things (there's very little difference aside from the latter doing a few more economic left things mostly as a result of the pandemic) but apparently they do.

I do wonder if things will change at all come the Autumn budget and this winter looking to be shit? If the UK/Europe have a cold winter this year, things will get quite bad I feel.

 

I really doubt it - the floor for the Tories appears to be around 40%, and that will change little while house prices remain high IMO.

 

I think the only way to defeat the Tories at the next election is to have a progressive pact that puts PR on the ballot, calls for a rainbow progressive coalition, and stands down all except one candidate in each constituency against to maximise the chance of preventing a Conservative majority.

 

For example, we can already see that the 18-24 LAbour support (that increased in 2019) is now being driven to the Greens...

 

@1448968025076649985

based and true.

 

Yeah, because he was visible, he was offering an alternative, he was pointing out what he'd do if he'd get in power. The media establishment of the UK hated him for it and did everything they could to call him a monster to ensure the greatest number of people also hated him. They're not doing that with Starmer. He's not a threat, no one cares for his milquetoast vague posturing. So there's no need.

 

And because of that, because there is no alternative route out of this, nothing offering change, you get to see a percentage of the Tory bloc aligning with 'well they're the government and no one else is any good so we'll say them by default' and a percentage of the bloc who would vote Labour if they were more involved in presenting an alternative picture of how the country would look while governing are aligning with 'Greens/not voting'.

 

Labour not challenging 'there is no alternative', negatively campaigning, reactively campaigning, all of it is terrible politics from them and the entire opposition needs a complete reboot into how they're approaching the upcoming campaign (get freaking populist, it's obviously the successful game in town in the internet age!) - there could be one in 18 months.

 

Exactly and the baton will only be passed to Labour when people get totally fed up of the tories like in 1997!

 

@1451493958526324738

 

That's the lowest they've had the conservatives since January and the first time they've had the greens in double digits!

That's YouGov following on from some of the other polls from the last few weeks, right? (albeit slightly behind).

 

I do think it's beginning to show the Tories aren't as popular as people think, but Labour also aren't the dominant popular alternative (at least not yet). Don't think that matters too much at this stage, but it will in 18 months time. Probably tells us that all those people who voted Tory in 2019 either voted for them to get Brexit done, not wanting Corbyn in power or both things rather than a massive long term upswing in Conservative popularity.

@1456215055398227969

 

@1457090825242939397

 

We can but hope.