Definitely looks like the cut through to the public is holding and this is a seismic shift in voting intention.

 

@1472975104007155714

Excellent lead and good to see

Some more tasty morsels for this Wednesday before Christmas.

 

@1473584396036984833

 

@1473584416194809864

 

This poll suggests that Johnson is in big trouble. Labour is maintaining its lead, and Starmer is now seen as the best PM. This is critical. If he can build/maintain his lead on this metric, Johnson will find himself coming under extreme pressure.

 

 

Merry Christmas !! :D

 

Quite the nosedive!

GE NOW!!!!

The signs are really good and noticeably the Tories are starting to get worried now, but as I have said before, I think the damage is already done. There is all the sleeze stuff, but we have to factor in the cost of living increases too. The Tories can't polish the turd forever and people will lay blame to the Government as is what usually happens.

 

Undoubtedly the Tories will bounce back a little bit and Labour will lose some signs. But I think it shows Labour just need to show they are stable rather than wanting to rip up the rule book and make massive changes all at once. Long way to go yet before 2024, but no way the Tories will try and pull an early election at this rate.

I can't see things improving for the Tories either - I think everyone is just tired of Boris now - the shine is completely off him and people can see the bollocks for what it is... I mean it was there anyway, but I think all the illusion is gone now (although probably not for the die hards).

 

I saw a seat forecast on another site and had the Tories loosing something like 115 seats based on data - even if it comes close to that it will be great. The Tories will definitely be losing the red wall seats they gained at the last election.

 

The local elections in May should be interesting :D

@1474808797138931715

The Times poll is much larger than normal and is focussed on a selection of key seats. The Electoral Calculus on those national figures show labour just short of a majority. That suggests that Labour are doing better in the seats that matter.

There’s no way Scotland plays out like that. Labour won’t take that many SNP seats in the central belt or any in fife. I can’t see a LibDem wipe out either or a Tory wipe out. Too many tactical voting unionists

There’s no way Scotland plays out like that. Labour won’t take that many SNP seats in the central belt or any in fife. I can’t see a LibDem wipe out either or a Tory wipe out. Too many tactical voting unionists

I hope you are not suggesting that tactical voting unionists are any different from tactical voting anti-Tories. No doubt some anti-Tory unionists will have a difficult choice to make.

Based on the last 5 years, yes. Yes I am saying exactly that. Many Tories have been elected ONLY because of labour and LibDem voters putting aside literally every single last principal and shred of integrity they have and gleefully voting Tory.

 

The Tories do return the favour in places such as where my parents live.

 

 

Welcome to Scotland. The usual rules don’t apply

 

 

Tactical voting anti-Tories at least stay on their side of the human/c**t divide. Tactical unionists don’t, they’ll vote for any bit of scum as long as it’s draped in a butchers apron

Scottish extrapolation always seems very unreliable, I agree. I can't see Labour winning back most (if any) of those seats even under current arrangements, and I can see the Tories keeping a couple of their Scottish seats.

 

Similarly tales of Labour's return in Cornwall are probably overstated due to local factors, T&F literally only ever voted strongly for Labour during the Corbyn years (because of Falmouth), it may be marginal because of previous results but Labour reclining there is just as likely under current conditions.

 

National extrapolation to local seats just doesn't play out in reality, there would surely be some Lib Dem seats in the middle of all of that, I reckon they could get up to 40 nationwide under current conditions.

 

On numbers though, ignoring specific seat variations, it's probably in the ballpark.

Don't all get your hopes up folks. It's nearly three years to the next GE. The Tories will be back in the lead before then.

 

Don't all get your hopes up folks. It's nearly three years to the next GE. The Tories will be back in the lead before then.

If the next election is as far away as that, that is a clear indication that the Tories are in trouble.

@1481392074784133123

That lead omg :cheeseblock:

 

Although still not a direct transfer from Con to Lab yet...

That poll won’t have taken into account the effects of today but worrying to see Labour still not hitting the 40% barrier.

Well the Lib Dem’s and Greens are doing really well plus Starmer is still not the most inspiring leader although good performance today.

That poll won’t have taken into account the effects of today but worrying to see Labour still not hitting the 40% barrier.

 

Getting people to stop voting Tory is half the battle, getting them to come back to Labour is the second half. Pretty sure yesterday's PMQs might have done some good work on that score.

 

As much as Kier is calling for BJ to go, the longer he tries to cling on the better for Labour at the moment.