What made you change your mind by the way?

 

 

It's just that Trump seems so confident so maybe they have internal party polling that doesn't match the official pollsters. Have seen several TV documentaries too and they all talked to shy Trump voters who said they'd never tell a polling company who they'd vote for.

 

Also have you seen his huge rallies compares to the Dem. ones? Pence spoke to a huge rally the other day.

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

What made you change your mind by the way?

 

So far I had only one real encounter with Trump supporter (and gay one after all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) and he always believed that Trump is going to landslide, but he didn't think he was going to win in 2016 in first place!!!

 

 

Does it matter if a Trump supporter is gay or straight like me? You seem shocked that he has any gay supporters. He has thousands. It's not true that he's homophobic either.

I have changed my mind. I do not believe the fake polls. There are too many shy Trump voters who don't talk to pollsters or lie. Trump will win and comfortably.

 

:o The Trafalgar Group polls are the only ones that really predict him to win, but few seem to believe them.

 

I do believe there are more shy Trump supporters than Biden ones because of Trumpism being perceived by many as being racist, but I actually believe there could be less this time than there were in 2016 as Trump's anti-illegal immigration rhetoric seemed to be more back then than now.

 

So yes I think he will just about hang on to Georgia, Texas and Ohio. Arizona, Florida and North Carolina I am not sure about, its not looking good for Trump in Arizona particularly in the polls so he is more likely to lose that of the three. I am inclined to predict Trump might just hold on to Florida as he seems to still have held up decently in the polls there compared to many of the swing states.

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

Trump is so confident because the narrative is his to take control of - he is probably going to look like he has won on election night, whilst the hundreds of thousands of postal votes are waiting. He then knows he can cry "election fraud" if he doesn't get the votes he needs. It's win-win for him, he either wines or he loses but still claims he wins as there is postal fraud. The exchange betting is not favouring Trump at all, he's been drifting all day, so the punters (apart from someone who splonked 5m on Trump) all seem to think their money is safe.

Does it matter if a Trump supporter is gay or straight like me? You seem shocked that he has any gay supporters. He has thousands. It's not true that he's homophobic either.

 

There is a compilation of him saying he doesnt support gay marriage so, urrrm, yes just a tad homophobic.

The “shy Trump supporter” is broadly considers to be a myth. The polls conducted in 2016 conclude that and will most likely be in 2020.

 

If you believe Trump will win because he’s confident, have a word. He’s a narcissi, a megalomaniac, he will not let his guard down. The fact he’s already initiating the narrative that the election is rigged shows you how confident he REALLY is.

Trump is so confident because the narrative is his to take control of - he is probably going to look like he has won on election night, whilst the hundreds of thousands of postal votes are waiting. He then knows he can cry "election fraud" if he doesn't get the votes he needs. It's win-win for him, he either wines or he loses but still claims he wins as there is postal fraud. The exchange betting is not favouring Trump at all, he's been drifting all day, so the punters (apart from someone who splonked 5m on Trump) all seem to think their money is safe.

I'm not a gambler but do odds get shortened because of how many people bet on a scenario to happen? like if for example Kanye West was in the running to become president and he had long odds to start off with in the UK because it was highly unlikely that he would win, would his odds suddenly get shortened in UK betting on election day if 2 million people in Britain all placed a bet on him to win on the day itself?

I'm not a gambler but do odds get shortened because of how many people bet on a scenario to happen? like if for example Kanye West was in the running to become president and he had long odds to start off with in the UK because it was highly unlikely that he would win, would his odds suddenly get shortened in UK betting on election day if 2 million people in Britain all placed a bet on him to win on the day itself?

 

Pretty much, the odds are weighted based on the market. So if someone's odds are shortening its because more money is being placed on them, either through multiple transactions or one large bet, although the multiples tend to cause the algorithims for working prices out to shortern/lenghten. I suspect there will be a lot of people laying on the exchange which basically means backing something NOT to happen. Probably lots of people who backed Trump earlier in the year might be getting fearful and will now be backing Trump not to win to cover losses.

The “shy Trump supporter” is broadly considers to be a myth. The polls conducted in 2016 conclude that and will most likely be in 2020.

 

If you believe Trump will win because he’s confident, have a word. He’s a narcissi, a megalomaniac, he will not let his guard down. The fact he’s already initiating the narrative that the election is rigged shows you how confident he REALLY is.

 

I thought the polls in 2016 were wrong by the percentage they were because there was a shy Trump vote to that percentage. :unsure: Although there were other things though like a higher number of undecided voters in 2016 that increased the margin for error.

 

Also have you seen his huge rallies compares to the Dem. ones? Pence spoke to a huge rally the other day.

 

Obama of course had some even bigger rallies in 2008 during his first presidential election campaign. The Trump rallies though are big rallies indeed especially allowing for the fact Covid concerns may have stopped some of his older fans from attending. Rally size is not that accurate an indicator really anyway, yes it shows his supporter base is energized but the number of people who attend Trump rallies is just a small percentage of the US electorate.

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

CNBC puts it as simply as this look:

 

North Carolina, Florida and Ohio are key bellwethers in determining the election outcome between President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, according to GOP pollster Frank Luntz.

“If Donald Trump wins all three of them, he’s going to be in this with a very good chance of remaining President” Luntz told CNBC on Election Day.

However, Luntz said Tuesday that “if Biden wins even one of those three, it’s Biden’s presidency.”

 

If Trump is able to win these three critical states, the race may then boil down to the results in Pennsylvania “because they’re going to take the longest to count [votes],” Luntz predicted. “We will not know a winner in Pennsylvania for at least the next 48 hours, perhaps 72 hours.”

 

However, Luntz said he believes Ohio, North Carolina and Florida are so critical because they may have results by early Wednesday morning, thereby offering a strong glimpse into Trump’s overall chances to win a second term.

 

Trump spent election eve at rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden on Monday was in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

 

In an election with a surge in mail-in voting due to the coronavirus pandemic, Luntz urged Americans to be patient as states tabulate results. With nearly 100 million votes already cast early, states have different rules on when election officials can process the votes and then actually count them.

 

“I think that this is not going to be resolved in 24 hours. I don’t think it’s going to take until Dec. 1,” he said. “But I do think it’s going to take two or three days and people may get the wrong impression based on which votes are counted early.”

 

Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, said Wall Street investors have in recent days focused on Pennsylvania as a “potential tipping state.” In an interview earlier on “Squawk Box,” Mills struck a similar tone as Luntz, noting the likelihood that results take a few days to come into focus.

 

While polls show a Biden lead, “whether or not that is right or not, we have to wait until tonight, maybe for a couple days, especially in Pennsylvania, where a number of counties will not start counting a single absentee ballot until the day after the election,” Mills said.

 

 

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

If, as I fear, it comes down to Pennsylvania to decide this election then it is not going to be pretty. :(

If, as I fear, it comes down to Pennsylvania to decide this election then it is not going to be pretty. :(

 

For it even to be as close as that, there must be quite a big polling error though. It could of course swing the other way in polling error by a few percent of course (maybe if for example Republican turnout turns out to be a bit disappointing compared to Democrat), with a Biden landslide, winning Texas by as much as 1% and running unexpectedly close to winning Montana. However I think because the existence of a shy Trump vote cannot be completely written off most people think polling error will swing Trump's way by a few percent.

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

@1323706008200376320

 

If only ONE good thing happens in this Godforsaken year, please let it be Joe and Kamala triumphing over evil.

Biden and Kamala are visiting polls in PA and MI apparently, while Trump sitting at WH!!!

Let the litigation begin.

 

This lawsuit alleges that Montgomery County has been reaching out to voters who submitted their ballots by mail and giving them the opportunity to fix mistakes they made on the ballots. That’s not what all counties are doing, so the Republicans are claiming that this procedure is a violation of the equal protection clause. And they’re asking both for the county to stop contacting voters to fix their ballots and for the ballots that were already fixed to be thrown out.

@1323657201685331973

We should have first results from Florida between 2 and 4am UK time. If Biden's won there it's virtually all over.

 

Biden is shortening with all the bookies this evening ; now 4/9 across the board.

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

We should have first results from Florida between 2 and 4am UK time. If Biden's won there it's virtually all over.

 

Biden is shortening with all the bookies this evening ; now 4/9 across the board.

 

I never understand bookies, is that good or bad for Trump?

 

I never understand bookies, is that good or bad for Trump?

I didn't know it either but it's good for Biden apparently.

 

Edited November 3, 20204 yr by devil tin coffin

I never understand bookies, is that good or bad for Trump?

 

Odds shortening means expected likelihood of this outcome is greater. So bad for Trump as the odds of Biden winning are shortening (expected outcome more likely).

 

Although it's worth pointing out that odds are really dependent on how people are betting, not on reality.