As of this morning, the Tories were very clear favourites to win the Old Bexley and Sidcup byelection today. They are also favourites to win N Staffs on the 16th, but their odds are lengthening while Lib Dem odds are shortening. According to the bookies, there is a good chance chance of the Tories losing that contest.

Given that I have an 100% track record of winning bets on by-elections (I've currently bet on one by-election), I'm considering extending my luck and sticking £10 on the Lib Dems winning the North Staffordshire by-election. They're currently on 2/1 to win, although they were 10/3 to win yesterday, so their odds have been shortening.

Old Bexley & Sidcup result:

 

CON 11,189

LAB 6,711

REF 1,432

GRE 830

LIB 647

 

others negligible

 

Pretty standard and expected result, turnout is way down* which could be used to make a point about voters being apathetic at current Tory mess rather than voting for anyone to oust them, and the Conservative win is 13 points down from 2019, but otherwise pretty tumbleweed. North Shropshire might, might be a bit more interesting.

 

*34% which is low compared to Hartlepool, Batley and Chesham which were between 42-52.

Old Bexley & Sidcup result:

 

CON 11,189

LAB 6,711

REF 1,432

GRE 830

LIB 647

 

others negligible

 

Pretty standard and expected result, turnout is way down* which could be used to make a point about voters being apathetic at current Tory mess rather than voting for anyone to oust them, and the Conservative win is 13 points down from 2019, but otherwise pretty tumbleweed. North Shropshire might, might be a bit more interesting.

 

*34% which is low compared to Hartlepool, Batley and Chesham which were between 42-52.

 

I guess an obvious result given the ultra safe seat, but the lead has been severely slashed and if that swing to Labour is replicated in other seats at the next election, then should severely dent the Tory majority in parliament.

Personally I'm thinking its disappointing for Labour as its mid term and people tend to vote as a protest. Plus this Government are immoral and shit. Should have been a lot closer especially as the LibDem and Green look like they've voted tactically.

 

Starmer fails to deliver. Again.

 

 

Personally I'm thinking its disappointing for Labour as its mid term and people tend to vote as a protest. Plus this Government are immoral and shit. Should have been a lot closer especially as the LibDem and Green look like they've voted tactically.

 

Starmer fails to deliver. Again.

 

I don't really think that's fair on Starmer or Labour currently. Nothing can really be read too much in to this result with the reduced turnout. It's a massive Tory safe seat, there was little chance anyone was going to come and make it a close call. Plus, I suppose the circumstances around this seat are a little different too. I think it is more telling that loads of people didn't turn up - not sure the Tories will lose any sleep over this, but if the next by-election is tight or they lose it then I'm sure the tongues will start waggling.

The Lib Dems managed to get a massive swing against a Tory who died in tragic circumstances just a few months ago in Chesham and Amersham. I wasn't expecting a win but a bit more of a fight. I agree with the turnout being supressed by covid/ultra cold weather and it's difficult to get out the vote.

The Lib Dems managed to get a massive swing against a Tory who died in tragic circumstances just a few months ago in Chesham and Amersham. I wasn't expecting a win but a bit more of a fight. I agree with the turnout being supressed by covid/ultra cold weather and it's difficult to get out the vote.

 

I think you can spin it both ways. Labour will see this as an increase in votes in an area they were not expected to win or even get close to in any circumstances. I just don't think much can be read of this at all. If I'm not wrong, I think the result just about mirrors the current polling too across the country. The bigger news is the voters stayed away and that may be because of covid/weather, but I suspect a bit of it too is general apathy towards the Government too.

Sadly I agree it's not atrocious enough to make me think that they would dump Starmer and potentially get a more charismatic, electable leader but neither do I feel that the Tories should be at all worried and they will comfortably win the next General Election especially when the media bring out the attack dogs. This middling result just means eternal Tory governments and that in itself is disappointing.

Sadly I agree it's not atrocious enough to make me think that they would dump Starmer and potentially get a more charismatic, electable leader but neither do I feel that the Tories should be at all worried and they will comfortably win the next General Election especially when the media bring out the attack dogs. This middling result just means eternal Tory governments and that in itself is disappointing.

 

They are not going to dump Starmer, after a patchy start I think he is beginning to break through to the electorate. I think him bringing back Cooper in to the fold is a great move too. There is no-one charismatic waiting in the winds and Burnham isn't going to give it a shot to be an MP again unless he knows he's guaranteed. I know there is a lot of love on here for Rayner, and I too quite like her, but she would get eaten alive by the press because she would make it too easy for them at this current moment in time.

 

The key as always will be when the Tories pull the trigger for an election, the longer it goes on the better imo as I really do think those Northern heartlands will see things get worse for them rather than better if it is 2024.

A 10% swing from Tory to Labour is the biggest swing towards Labour in a by election since they were in government (the other bigger swings in he last ten years have been Tory to Lib Dem or in a couple of cases Tory to UKIP) and this is a safe Tory seat and it shows the polls are correct for now and they are recovering from 2019 so what exactly do you want? :huh: Deny all the problems Labour are actually trying to fix now and just let the racists back in? Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some)

 

This is a long game and Labour are slowly fixing the problems they have and only then can really add any meat to the bones of what they've presented so far in terms of what they'd do and then announce more in terms of policy closer to an actual election. People are only starting to listen to them again now after they've shown they will actually respect voters (and news isn't dominated by covid) so what is your big quick fix? Who is the so called charismatic person who will magically turn things around in an instant you have in mind?

 

Starmer hasn't been perfect but at least he's serious about tackling the problems with Labour and making them a party of government again rather than a protest group full of people who only want to use the Labour brand for their own personal agendas. Going from 26 points behind to being neck and neck at this stage is certainly an achievement and the gloves are off now so unless you live in a twitter bubble I don't see why anyone say he's the problem right now especially as his ratings have recovered to the point that he's actually way ahead of both Miliband and Corbyn at this stage but there is still a lot of work to do and they've been all over the corruption scandals right now so I don't see what the magic solution is here.

Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some)

 

Considering the failures of the Johnson government (noticeably putting profit before people's health) caused the largest death toll in Europe and billions of wasted tax payers money on cronyism, yes maybe at the start of the pandemic they SHOULD have opposed more to save lives, not to point score as you put it.

 

As for letting racists back in, can you explain which ones you mean? I do know the current leader has failed consistently to stand up for MPs like Zarah Sultana and Aspana Begum for vile racism regularly thrown their way.

 

Re: the speed of recovery, we'll see. I don't think yesterday's by-election was proof of that happening considering the diabolical month Johnson had. I do think Burnham would be better than Starmer any day of the week.

Well done to my party for holding the seat. Must buoy Boris up for Christmas. They shouldn't care about the recent bad polls. It's mid-term. That's what you expect. When it matters the voters will know who's got Brexit done and got the nation vaccinated.

Well done to my party for holding the seat. Must buoy Boris up for Christmas. They shouldn't care about the recent bad polls. It's mid-term. That's what you expect. When it matters the voters will know who's got Brexit done and got the nation vaccinated.

No, scientists got the nation vaccinated. And over half the populatio9n now think leaving the EU was a stupid idea. Any comment on the various stories in recent weeks about the big fat liar's incompetence, lies and general unfitness for office? You seem to have been very quiet on the matter recently.

A 10% swing from Tory to Labour is the biggest swing towards Labour in a by election since they were in government (the other bigger swings in he last ten years have been Tory to Lib Dem or in a couple of cases Tory to UKIP) and this is a safe Tory seat and it shows the polls are correct for now and they are recovering from 2019 so what exactly do you want? :huh: Deny all the problems Labour are actually trying to fix now and just let the racists back in? Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some)

 

This is a long game and Labour are slowly fixing the problems they have and only then can really add any meat to the bones of what they've presented so far in terms of what they'd do and then announce more in terms of policy closer to an actual election. People are only starting to listen to them again now after they've shown they will actually respect voters (and news isn't dominated by covid) so what is your big quick fix? Who is the so called charismatic person who will magically turn things around in an instant you have in mind?

 

Starmer hasn't been perfect but at least he's serious about tackling the problems with Labour and making them a party of government again rather than a protest group full of people who only want to use the Labour brand for their own personal agendas. Going from 26 points behind to being neck and neck at this stage is certainly an achievement and the gloves are off now so unless you live in a twitter bubble I don't see why anyone say he's the problem right now especially as his ratings have recovered to the point that he's actually way ahead of both Miliband and Corbyn at this stage but there is still a lot of work to do and they've been all over the corruption scandals right now so I don't see what the magic solution is here.

 

That's pretty selective stat slicing though. It's good for Labour against the Tories, it's bad for an opposition against a sitting government. Winning oppositions need to do well in by-elections, they always have in the past and they tend to do BETTER in by-elections than in an election. A 10-point swing is fiiine but still not good enough. And it was even worse in summer's by-elections. I think the next good test for them to prove themselves will now be next May and it's a long way to there. The polls will still need to get better. This is more like, in line with the polls and will possibly get Labour a minority government if they're lucky.

 

The signs are that voters are ready to abandon the Tories, but only once they have an alternative. One with enthusiasm, one that doesn't seem to secretly despise its membership by lying to them with leadership pledges and ejecting any who stand with them from powerful positions, and its background as a party of fighting for labour. Which is a point because the party can have huge numbers of volunteers and activists talking them up, but it doesn't really seem to have those anymore, and it's also lost a lot of funding money since Starmer became leader. And it would be good if we had an opposition that was making noise about fixing the problems caused by the Tories so that it COULD be that alternative. There are open goals all over this government but Starmer isn't taking them -the corruption scandals have been good work but unfortunately I think the bigger opposition has been the press rather than Labour.

 

I don't however think it's wise or good to be thinking about shifting leaders. Starmer will get his turn in 2024 and god willing he does have a plan to oust the Tories. But I also do not trust him or any of his Cabinet, now that some of the last of those from the left of the party have been ejected, to fix the lives of working people.

. Any comment on the various stories in recent weeks about the big fat liar's incompetence, lies and general unfitness for office? You seem to have been very quiet on the matter recently.

 

 

Well yes, no man lived who never made a mistake.. I have and you must have. He has made mistakes as any PM does but overall I think he's been okay as a PM.

Well yes, no man lived who never made a mistake.. I have and you must have. He has made mistakes as any PM does but overall I think he's been okay as a PM.

 

Very few people who make mistake after mistake continue to keep their job.

Well yes, no man lived who never made a mistake.. I have and you must have. He has made mistakes as any PM does but overall I think he's been okay as a PM.

If I had made as many mistakes as he has, I would have lost my job long ago. if I broke rules I had set myself, I would have been sacked. If I had tried to change the rules retrospectively to protect a mate, I would have expected to be sacked.

The Lib Dems are now narrow favourites to win N Shropshire next week.

Given the absolute shitshow that the government are currently embroiled in I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it Simon, and am definitely here for it. Would make Boris' Christmas very awkward!

 

Local Conservative sources have spoken of concern at the impact national issues are having on the race. One said they now expected a close race, which could go either by as few as 500 votes.

 

You love to see it. :D