I was hoping there was going to be at least a temporary ceasefire because of the talks going on but nothing yet :(

But what’s the point in panicking? It’s not going to achieve very much. There’s not really much the public can do about the whole situation and if somehow we do get into a big war with Russia I don’t know where you are going to escape to.

 

I can totally understand people panicking though, as all it takes if Putin to gamble and it's over if he dares attack NATO. I'd feel at this point though before we tried to push any nuclear option, one of his advisors would pull the plug on him internally, as much as Putin is capable, I don't think the entire Kremlin would be willing to die for Putin. If we get in to a land/urban war with Russia then, the West would win quite comfortably. While I think Putin would clearly go nuclear, I also don't think anyone knows his end goal here and that's what's most worrying.

 

Also to TheSnake - the peace talks will come to nothing, it's just putting on a show. Putin has no intention of peace until he gets what he's after, and for all the good intelligence we have, no-one has been able to guess what he's after yet.

He's after the conquest of Ukraine, a buffer state, ans perhaps the de-facto re-absorption of Ukraine into Eussia in all but name, much like he has done with Belarus. Kazakhstan and Georgia would suffer similar fates if he achieves that.

 

Remember, in both thr US and Russia, a president alone camnot just order a nuclesr strike. He or she must be presented with the option by the MILITARY as a mikitary option for the situation. The nuclear suitcases are just telephones by which the president communicates with the generals that thry have decided on the option, which will have already been presented to them previously by the military. If thr mikitary does not present the option, then it doesn't happen.

But what’s the point in panicking? It’s not going to achieve very much. There’s not really much the public can do about the whole situation and if somehow we do get into a big war with Russia I don’t know where you are going to escape to.

I'm not trying to say everyone should be anxious or panicking - I agree, that's not healthy (I wish I wasn't but unfortunately I'm just a very anxious person by nature). I was just more concerned that I don't see many people panicking or worrying and it actually being more severe than we think.

Panicking or stressing still wouldn't achieve anything even if more people did it. Perhaps it is more serious thsn we think, and Putin has absolutely lost it, and his generals are under his thrall. Perhaps not, ans he's shouting out in weakness. An asteroid - not the moon, ifnore that sillt movie lol - coukd crash into us tomorrow. The 1950s - 1991 were all about possible nuclear annihilation of the entire planet at any moment. That's just life - suspension of disbelief, that it could all end in a moment.

Just as a word of reassurance, remember that Johnson blamed the EU for the Russian invasion of Crimea. Oh :cry:

Lol what?? 🤣🤣 God that sack of shit has no business in any position of power.

I hate that I actually agree with Boris Johnson on something. Some of the takes I have seen today could quite literally result in nuclear destruction.

Edited March 1, 20223 yr by blacksquare

Im broadly in favour of a no-fly zone but it would be the start of WW3 and anyone in favour of an NFZ who is in denial about that fact or says it won’t happen is not living in reality and should be sent to sit in a corner with a cone hat on. It involves provocations with, and the shooting down of, Russian aircraft, Drones and missiles. That would be received as a declaration of war by Russia.

 

 

Now. Russia bombed the Slovenian embassy today. An attack on an embassy is usually seen as an attack on that country. An embassy is considered the sovereign territory of a country. Slovenia is a nato state. NATO swore to protect ever inch of territory. So the question is, have we already crossed that line where article 5 is triggered.

 

 

Also today the EU Parliament voted by a meteoric landslide to designate the Ukraine as an official candidate for EU Membership.

He's after the conquest of Ukraine, a buffer state, ans perhaps the de-facto re-absorption of Ukraine into Eussia in all but name, much like he has done with Belarus. Kazakhstan and Georgia would suffer similar fates if he achieves that.

 

Remember, in both thr US and Russia, a president alone camnot just order a nuclesr strike. He or she must be presented with the option by the MILITARY as a mikitary option for the situation. The nuclear suitcases are just telephones by which the president communicates with the generals that thry have decided on the option, which will have already been presented to them previously by the military. If thr mikitary does not present the option, then it doesn't happen.

 

That's what we think he wants, but it might not. He could stop when he has control of Kiyv or he could go for the whole of Ukraine. Everyone seemed surprised at his launch of attack to Ukraine for example.

 

Im broadly in favour of a no-fly zone but it would be the start of WW3 and anyone in favour of an NFZ who is in denial about that fact or says it won’t happen is not living in reality and should be sent to sit in a corner with a cone hat on. It involves provocations with, and the shooting down of, Russian aircraft, Drones and missiles. That would be received as a declaration of war by Russia.

Now. Russia bombed the Slovenian embassy today. An attack on an embassy is usually seen as an attack on that country. An embassy is considered the sovereign territory of a country. Slovenia is a nato state. NATO swore to protect ever inch of territory. So the question is, have we already crossed that line where article 5 is triggered.

Also today the EU Parliament voted by a meteoric landslide to designate the Ukraine as an official candidate for EU Membership.

 

Do we know is Russia purposely bombed the embassay though? I can't imagine Putin wants a war with NATO purposely. Either way, I could not see us declaring war over the bombing of an embassy in Ukraine if they had been evacuated, not matter how bad that action is. Looks like China are truly beginning to distance themselves from the attack too, probably fear the economic repecussions.

 

It’s claimed to be collateral damage but that was a strike on civilian infrastructure and a war crime before you consider the location of the Slovenian embassy. The Ukrainians are saying they have evidence that Russians have been in country Intel gathering and preparing for over a year. They will have known exactly what was on this square and attacked knowing it would damage a nato embassy. It was a wilful act

Lol what?? 🤣🤣 God that sack of shit has no business in any position of power.

Yes, he said it in the referendum campaign.

Im broadly in favour of a no-fly zone but it would be the start of WW3 and anyone in favour of an NFZ who is in denial about that fact or says it won’t happen is not living in reality and should be sent to sit in a corner with a cone hat on. It involves provocations with, and the shooting down of, Russian aircraft, Drones and missiles. That would be received as a declaration of war by Russia.

Now. Russia bombed the Slovenian embassy today. An attack on an embassy is usually seen as an attack on that country. An embassy is considered the sovereign territory of a country. Slovenia is a nato state. NATO swore to protect ever inch of territory. So the question is, have we already crossed that line where article 5 is triggered.

Also today the EU Parliament voted by a meteoric landslide to designate the Ukraine as an official candidate for EU Membership.

 

It also makes you wonder about the specific rules of war and generalisations we all have about the situation. I mean will Russia start a war with NATO if a NFZ is introduced - yes most likely. But will Putin also look at NATO and EU nations as being aggressive because they are supplying weapons to Ukraine? Surely it’s similar. Or as you say embassy’s being destroyed.

 

One other thing I was worried about is if Russian misiles hit one of the four nuclear plants in Ukraine (seperate from the famous Chernobyl plant) that would be awful.

 

Also, on a seperate note, I asked this earlier in the thread but didn’t get an answer. But what exactly is the difference between Russia and Ukraine, why was Ukraine/Belarus etc formed post 1991, I’m pretty sure it wasnt a seperate nation state before 1917!?

 

I think the risk of nuclear war does have to take into account that Russia undoubtedly has a few people who would have to sign off on a nuclear launch - it won't just be Putin the madman, and every one of those people is very aware that firing a nuke means Russia ceases to exist.

 

Doesn't mean it won't happen. Just that more than one powerful person has to sign themselves off to destroying their own country.

 

Missiles hitting Ukraine's nuclear plants is perhaps more of a worry, I'm not sure of their locations.

 

Also, on a seperate note, I asked this earlier in the thread but didn’t get an answer. But what exactly is the difference between Russia and Ukraine, why was Ukraine/Belarus etc formed post 1991, I’m pretty sure it wasnt a seperate nation state before 1917!?

 

Ukrainian history is a long one and much like other peoples who have been ruled more often than they've been the ruler (c.f. Irish, Czechs, Serbs, Croats), quite complicated but a short summary with probable inaccuracies because chronicling an ethnic group's history is a touchy business at times:

 

Going back to medieval times there's always been a long swathe of peoples stretching from the Carpathian mountains on the border with Romania to the Volga River in the East and the Finnish woods to the north, variously called the Rus' or the Ruthenians - Slavic peoples who spoke a variety of Russian languages. Kyiv WAS the old Russian capital around 1000-1100 but Russia wasn't united, what we now know as 'Kievan Rus' was just the most powerful of the principalities at that time. The Rus and the Ruthenians diverged later on and those thought more of as Ruthenians came under the dominance of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Rus under the duchies of Novgorod, Muscovy and others; later, united by Ivan IV, into the first Russian Empire. Modern Belarus and Ukraine went back and forth between these two empires - and also the Austrians and the Ottoman empire for a little bit (c.f. the Zaporizhian hordes, a Cossack horde based in modern Ukraine who are famous for sending a rather rude letter to the Ottoman sultan). Ukrainian emerged as a descriptor to describe the Ruthenians who lived in these contested areas around Kyiv in the 18th century. Belarus are often thought of as 'White Ruthenians' or 'White Rus' (that's literally the name of the country) - it used to describe all of Russia but now just means Belarus.

 

For Ukraine, after Poland-Lithuania fell around 1800, this group of people who didn't share a common history of being united with Russia found themselves divided between empires yet again, and started a Ukrainian national revival with for those with cultural ties to the region around Kyiv. The Russian Empire did own most of this land by 1917, and the new USSR (was basically forced to divide its country into ethnic groups, at least those on its borders into separate SSRs) used the now century-old tradition of Ukrainian identity asserting itself beneath Russian national boundaries to declare Ukraine a separate SSR. And all of the SSRs that still existed when the USSR fell became their own nation states because they voluntarily left the USSR as their own nation states.

 

I mean, yes, it wasn't a separate nation state before 1917 but also so were most of Europe's ethnic groups who now have self-determination. Slovakia, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Belgium, these didn't exist in any form until at least the 18th century or later - and countries like Croatia, Serbia and Norway had to draw upon long-buried histories of being briefly independent before they were released.

Put it this way - if you think all nation states should be drawn around ethnolinguistic lines (I do not, that would be terrible), then there might be a teensy justification for Russia to be united with Belarus. But they're still distinct, if similar ethnic groups. Much less of one to be united with Ukraine - it's saying that Norway should invade Sweden and Croatia should invade Serbia on the same justification.

Thanks for the overview, it is very interesting. So it’s like the Tsar had built up the Russian empire west and that’s why Ukraine and Belarus didn’t exist in nation state form before 1991, I always thought it was strange and it was a way of the west of creating a buffer zone between Russia and Poland!

Both were under the control of larger and more powerful empires despite different languages, yeah. I mean, for those empires the Ukrainian plains were a buffer zone in border regions to be given to Cossack commanders and warlords rather than ruled as core parts. But Ukrainian national identity was strong enough by 1917 to force the revolutionaries in Moscow to recognise the Ukrainian leaders as governing a separate state within their union.

 

Not the west's idea, for sure.

I said before that the Russian economy would be taken back to the 1990's, I was way off. Try more the "stone age". Russia is going to be made more isolated than even the Soviet Union ever was. If I was Russian, I would get the hell out of Russia NOW!

Also this means that even if Russia does successfully invade Ukraine completely, Russia will never be able to hold it. They will have barely any money or supplies or weapons. And most importantly the Ukrainian people don't want the Russian occupants in their country, they want them OUT. Meanwhile Ukraine will be trained up by NATO, 22 thousand Ukrainian soldiers have already been trained by the British under NATO, Ukraine will win either the short game or the long game.

 

Russia has lost already, they just don't know it yet.

Edited March 2, 20223 yr by JamBlade

Big brands are closing business with Russia, some banks are being turned off SWIFT, any fake news about this war (they REALLY don't like to call it this, that is merely a 'military operation') online can get you a few years in jail, Wikipedia (!) is on the verge of getting blocked purely due to the Ukraine war article, some of the government officials coming out as shocked at how this has turned out (and APPARENTLY they can't say no to this otherwise they will be facing jail).

 

Putin is literally holding half of the country hostage and the other half is too brainwashed and/or ignorant to see the truth.

Edited March 2, 20223 yr by Bdelita