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Doctor Blind
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Surely that’s not right? What an Earth is going on?
23k cases today :mellow:

How does Johnson think his hope of "back to normal by Christmas" is going?

 

Whatever happened to his prediction that the tide would turn within twelve weeks - a prediction made in March?

 

Does he think we have lived up to his prediction that we would "send Coronavirus packing"?

It includes more of the ‘technical issues’ back data again, apparently today’s total is just over 7,000.
It includes more of the ‘technical issues’ back data again, apparently today’s total is just over 7,000.

 

Allegedly 15k from the last two days were from beforehand with computer glitches bring the reason they weren’t counted.

 

So if today was really 7k then yesterday must have been 13k.

 

I can’t make sense of any of it and we clearly can’t trust government figures.

It includes more of the ‘technical issues’ back data again, apparently today’s total is just over 7,000.

Even so, an extra 16k throughout the week is concerning.

 

When are the kids off school? As I can imagine we’ll enter lockdown that week.

Even so, an extra 16k throughout the week is concerning.

 

When are the kids off school? As I can imagine we’ll enter lockdown that week.

 

We currently have 3 weeks left until half term.

It includes more of the ‘technical issues’ back data again, apparently today’s total is just over 7,000.

Ahh sorry, it is apparently around 10-11,000!

 

There are reports still though that it’s levelling out! Hopefully we can see it reflected in the figures over the next week.

There were studies showing that R has already fallen back to 1.1 so I expect that we'll be back under <10K / day next week.

I’m seeing that this is 1.6?

 

Gov.uk

Latest R number and growth rate

Last updated on Friday 2 October 2020.

 

 

Latest R number range for the UK

1.3-1.6

Latest growth rate range for the UK

+5% to +9%

per day

Edited by Brightest Blue

I’m seeing that this is 1.6?

 

Gov.uk

 

I don't know, the reporting is all over the place at the moment but lots of people seem to confident the community transmission isn't that bad.

 

Are these figures including the mass testing Universities are conducting on campus? Most universities have their own on-site testing centre now..

But with the week+ delays on test results flowing through the system, who can say with any confidence what the R0 actually is?

 

 

Germany added NI, Wales & Scotland to its red list along with NE, NW and Yorkshire & The Humber. Gibraltar has been on the list for ages. Not ideal. My folks are coming out for a visit in a few weeks time and its unlikely that Scotland is going to fall back enough to come off the list by then (realistically). Thankfully Germany are airport testing so they'll get a free corona test when they land at the shiny nine years old BRAND NEW Berlin Airport and then they'll quarantine at my place until they get the test result back. They don't take long so it won't be too bad and I've got a big enough flat that we will be comfortable for the day or two we need to quarantine for.

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I was referring to this study: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54366478

 

The latest analysis, of swab samples collected between 19 and 26 September, suggests the R number has fallen to about 1.1 - although the precise figure is uncertain.

 

Got to say though, the release of this data on daily positive tests has been utterly shambolic. Why no detail beyond "technical difficulties".... ?

News today that Tory voting regions are being spared local lockdown despite having higher case numbers than areas that are currently locked down.

 

Via https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-coron...ncies-rqtkhxm8s

 

Leaked emails reveal that wealthier seats and new blue strongholds are being spared the harshest restrictions

Wealthy areas, including the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary seat, are avoiding lockdown despite having higher Covid-19 rates than poorer areas that are subject to restrictions, according to leaked emails between health officials.

The government is under growing pressure to explain why it has placed large parts of the north and Midlands under local lockdowns while overlooking areas with similar infection rates. Asked why the northwest is “treated differently” from areas such as his own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Boris Johnson said on Friday: “I appreciate ... people want to see an iron consistency applied across the whole country.”

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, decides which areas to place in lockdown during weekly “gold” meetings with advisers. Yesterday, 50 councils were subject to measures such as bans on household mixing. However, there is no official Covid-19 infection rate that triggers a local lockdown.

On Thursday, Professor Dominic Harrison, the director of public health for Blackburn with Darwen, the largest borough in the wider Lancashire area, wrote to Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) officials, saying the measures were “avoidably increasing economic inequality”. He said: “There is now a different level of central control applied across local authorities, with some of the more economically challenged boroughs being placed into more restrictive control measures at an earlier point in their ... case rate trajectory.

“This has the effect of exacerbating the economic inequality impacts of the virus in those areas. We urgently need consistency in the national strategy if the control system itself is not to add to inequality, giving an economic ‘double whammy’ to more challenged areas.”

His comments come amid a row between ministers and mayors over lockdown policy. Andy Preston, the Middlesbrough mayor, last week said he did “not accept” the latest measures and said local leaders could effectively “preserve jobs and wellbeing”. He has since U-turned.

Blackburn with Darwen is one of Britain’s poorest boroughs. Its Covid rate peaked at 212 weekly cases per 100,000 people. When officials first imposed lockdowns in the area in August, they intervened in wards where the weekly rate exceeded 60 new cases per 100,000. A similar benchmark has been used elsewhere.

However, Harrison produced figures last week to suggest that wealthier areas with similar or higher rates were avoiding lockdown. Richmondshire in North Yorkshire, which includes Sunak’s constituency and is one of the least deprived areas in Britain, has 73 new cases for every 100,000 people. Newark and Sherwood, represented by Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, and Mark Spencer, the chief whip, stands at 84. Both areas have avoided lockdown.

In contrast, Wolverhampton, another poorer area, has 56 cases per 100,000 yet remains in lockdown. Chorley, at 72, Lancaster, at 66, and Oadby and Wigston, at 63, are also subject to lockdowns.

Several “red wall” seats that voted Tory at the last election have avoided lockdown, including Barrow-in-Furness (112) , Darlington (110) and Wakefield (73). Of all areas where infections exceed 70 but lockdown has been avoided, the majority are represented by Tory MPs.

Steve Reed, shadow housing secretary, said: “People living in the north and Midlands will be asking why they’re having to face restrictions when other parts of the country that have seen infections rise are not.” The DHSC said the incidence rate was only one criterion considered in deciding on lockdowns.

NO LOCKDOWN

Sheffield 110 cases per 100,000

Barrow-in-Furness 112

Darlington 110

Craven 109

Newark and Sherwood 84

IN LOCKDOWN

Chorley 73 cases per 100,000

Wyre 71

Lancaster 66

Oadby and Wigston 63

Wolverhampton 56

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