700,000 to 749,999 - because let's go big why not - but even half of that would be impressive

But actually I don't she's doing many variants, I can only see 3 vinyls (black, white from Amazon, clear from HMV)

that's nothing compared to the 16 different vinyls Taylor released for Folklore :)

 

I can see also 1 cassette and 2 CD versions but thats not really taking advantage of releasing multiple formats and variants

I’ve gone for 500,000 to 549,000

 

It’s so difficult to predict though, I’ve been surprised by her streaming figures but streaming doesn’t equate to high sales usually. I’ve ordered a physical copy, fingers crossed about 480,000 other people have too

Current Formats -

 

Standard CD

Standard CD (Alternative Sleeve - HMV Exclusive)

Vinyl - Black

Vinyl - White (Amazon Exclusive)

Vinyl - Clear (HMV & Indies)

Cassette

467,678

Would I be right in saying that no album released within the last 2 years (24 months) has reached 500k in total?

I'm going to go conservative and say 300k first week.

Crunching some numbers- the average sale for a No 1 album in 2015 before "25" was released was just under 40k- so it opened with a sale 2,000% higher than the average

 

Average sale in 2021 for a No 1 album so far is 25.7k so a similar % would work out to around 514k.

That's actually a very logical and methodical way of estimating her sales, I'm more convinced by this than any other argument in this thread!

I don’t think it will be anywhere near her previous record. About 250k.

I've gone for 250k to 299k but that's simply because I haven't a clue what its physical sales will be. It will have massive streams though.

230 k which is super great in this day and age..

Borderline 200,000.

I’ll say somewhere around 500k.

 

Very much doubt it could ever come close to beating 25 but I think she will still do something extraordinary by 2021 standards.

I've gone for 250k to 299k but that's simply because I haven't a clue what its physical sales will be. It will have massive streams though.

Yes and it will all come down to the physicals as even if each track is streamed 1 million times per day on average over the whole week that won’t be much more than 100k chart sales.

 

After reading the comments I’ve revised my thinking upwards a bit - reckon she could do 500k.

Circa 625K

I actually think she could do similarly to 25

And even beat it

 

If the album tracks do on average 1 million a day

Which doesnt seem far fetched

And same on apple/amazon

Thats easily 200k from streams alone

500-549k I think

I have put down 400-450k

I actually think she could do similarly to 25

And even beat it

 

If the album tracks do on average 1 million a day

Which doesnt seem far fetched

And same on apple/amazon

Thats easily 200k from streams alone

 

Was gonna ask did the last release have streams too?

 

Doesn’t Adele restrict her release on streaming for a while?

I went for 450-500k

Was gonna ask did the last release have streams too?

 

Doesn’t Adele restrict her release on streaming for a while?

25 wasn't put out to streaming initially (don't remember exactly how long for but it was for at least 6 months) to boost her album sales (only Hello was available, then When We Were Young and Send My Love when they had official single releases) but 30 will be now that streaming is too dominant for her to get away with that tactic.