December 12, 20232 yr Feeling like Jack Harlow is going to sneak between Wham! and Mariah this week. Think Noah Kahan should beat the Pogues too unfortunately Looking at the data so far, we may end up being surprised at how high Noah Kahan is in this week’s chart. We may get a better picture when (Spotify) data comes in today - but my first projections based on the fact that streams/sales of Christmas songs are significantly down on last week, had Last Christmas narrowly ahead (we are talking 500 max) of Jack and Noah who were neck and neck in 2nd place. I think we all assume that streams of Christmas songs will start to improve now, but for three consecutive days now they’re significantly down on last week’s - and despite a bumper November, Sunday’s Christmas streams were similar to the same time last year. In other words, Christmas songs were streamed earlier this year, but won’t necessarily be streamed more in December than last year.
December 12, 20232 yr Wow your projections have been very accurate so we could be in for a real surprise with Noah coming close to #1. I really wonder to what extent Stick Season is being boosted by Christmas rather than suppressed by it, but I guess we won’t fully know until after Christmas Day.
December 12, 20232 yr I think it's been helped rather than hindered It's not a 100% xmas song but kinda works as a xmas song, with xmas being mentioned in the lyrics and the title being about the current time of the year
December 12, 20232 yr Wow your projections have been very accurate so we could be in for a real surprise with Noah coming close to #1. I really wonder to what extent Stick Season is being boosted by Christmas rather than suppressed by it, but I guess we won’t fully know until after Christmas Day. Thank you. My projections are normally based on things that are quite predictable - but this one has been much harder, so could be way off. I agree about Stick Season being considered a Christmas song
December 12, 20232 yr Yeah stick season has finally clicked for me! I’ve liked his other music like everywhere rverything and dial drunk but this one I wasn’t sold on. It’s been helped by The Olivia cover, as I added a podcast of that to my playlist! What a song! I hope it can make it to #1 officially! I also really hope both noah and Olivia cash in and put out the remix, it would smash!!
December 12, 20232 yr It would be such a fun shock if Stick Season was #1 this week but I still don’t think it will be.
December 12, 20232 yr If they put out an Olivia remix for Christmas week then it could really be a Christmas No.1 contender!
December 12, 20232 yr I ran 2 different models today The first one had the top three still very close. 1) Wham! 2) Jack 3) Noah Then: 4) Mariah 5) Pogues The second has 1) Wham! Then 2-4 very close 2) Noah 3) Mariah 4) Jack Then 5) Pogues (Ariana fans she is 11/10 in these two models - probably end up at 10!) I think I’m going to guess: 1) Wham! 2) Noah 3) Jack 4) Mariah 5) Pogues
December 12, 20232 yr On Friday 29th December there will be no usual Official top 40 Chart. Instead a 4 hour long Official Chart of the Year, looking at the top 100 singles from 2023. The show starts at 2pm :o
December 12, 20232 yr The biggest sales week of the year and no chart show 🙄 People usually complain when there isn't a chart of the year! Who wants to listen to 30 odd Christmas songs on the 29th Dec anyway
December 12, 20232 yr Agreed, they are probably just responding to reported opinion that people don’t want to hear 36 Christmas songs in a row when the day has been and gone. It’s not like the actual chart isn’t going to be published. I’d also bet that if something new actually got to #1 that week e.g Alexa or Noah then they would 100% mention and play that.
December 12, 20232 yr Alexa and Noah seem like a match made in heaven for next year’s seasonal output now that Stick Season has made him an established name
December 12, 20232 yr The amusing thing is that the top 100 in year will be almost as crammed with catalogue hits, it’ll be no more fresh than a weekly chart full of Christmas hits.
December 12, 20232 yr Wham! and Mariah are both now actually a bit down on their Spotify numbers for the equivalent Monday last year which is quite a turnaround from them being massively up throughout November and early December (I think, I've not extensively fact checked this x), very odd! That does make the Christmas #1 race feel a little more open again.
December 12, 20232 yr (I think, I've not extensively fact checked this x) So of course I have to now :magic: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PGH...dit?usp=sharing It does seem to be a pretty abrupt shift to suddenly being down on their numbers from the equivalent day last year after nearly always being up by double digit percentages before. (I've avoided comparisons by day around 1st November and 1st December as those dates distort the numbers a bit too much)
December 12, 20232 yr By the way Christmas end 6th January not 26th December Certainly not for me. I'm done with it once Boxing Day arrives.
December 12, 20232 yr Someone needs to release a song about that awkward period between Boxing Day and New Years Eve.
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