The Iowa poll is very positive and if accurate could mean Kamala wins fairly comfortably... Although who knows.

 

I think there's a lot of focus on the presidency but not as much on the senate and house. I believe the democrats are expected to lose control of the senate to the republicans with the republicans also keeping control of the house. If the senate does flip (currently 51 democrats vs 49 republicans) that will make it difficult for Kamala to do much in the way of reform.

Yeah the Senate is quite a problem for the Democrats unfortunately and hard to see at the moment how it'll ever not be again. Until as recently as the start of Obama's presidency there were still quite a few Democratic senators from red states but increased partisanship has been gradually pushing them all out, Republicans are very likely to win the Senate back this year no matter how badly Trump does simply because West Virginia is an absolutely guaranteed flip to take it to 50/50 and then the next most likely flip is Montana's holdout Democrat who's not looking in great shape. If those both flip the Democrats then have to flip at least one state back to barely keep the Senate and there aren't many options for them, Texas and Florida are basically the only even slightly viable ones. (Nebraska maybe a wildcard as well because there is an Independent who's been competitive in some polls, but I don't know enough about that to even know if he'd be another addition to the small handful of 'Independents but essentially Democrats'). It would be amazing if Democrats managed to keep the Senate by eliminating Ted Cruz but I don't want to get my hopes up x

 

I've not paid as much attention to predictions for the House but I think as of the last time I checked the Democrats' chances there were pretty similar to their chances for the presidency.

Why's the Senate vote so different to the presidential vote? :unsure: Surely if its a comfortable Democrat win on the main presidential it would be a win on the Senate too?

 

I am rather shocked by that Iowa poll to say the least :o if its true, that means the other polls have like a +7 Trump error! But that's like the +7 Biden error in 2020.

Edited November 3, 2024Nov 3 by TheSnake

It's because every state has 2 senators regardless of population. For example, for the presidency California and Wyoming will always vote Democratic and Republican respectively, but the former is worth 54 Electoral College votes and the latter is worth only 3. But in the Senate it's 2 each.

 

It's been gradually trending towards every state just having 2 senators from the party they lean more towards, and there are just more states that lean Republican (just happens that a lot of them are quite low population), so for Democrats to win the Senate in the future they basically need to win every single winnable seat (and it's not impossible to imagine that at some point even that won't be enough).

 

Also only 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every 2 years. Democrats might have had the chance to flip seats in Maine and North Carolina this year but they're not up for election.

I think the best shot of them holding the senate is Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell seems to be running Rick Scott close, however he has a nasty habit of winning tight races by ~1% which is probably the result again.

 

Dan Osborn is probably a very outside chance, but given the relative weakness of the Trump vote in other deep red states like Kansas (based on polling), then who knows.

 

The other one I’m watching is Missouri - Lucas Kunce v Josh Hawley. Alas I don’t think it’s that competitive but that slimy git losing would be a very nice outcome.

 

Re. The House, it’s definitely going Democratic, they only need to flip a handful of seats and they’re leading in about 15 of their target list. It won’t be a thumping majority, but enough to effectively legislate unlike the current House, although the lack of legislating is as much by choice as by gift.

Idaho poll is VERY spicy, as is people over 60%, both men AND women, and a larger % of women, breaking for Kamala. This election is very strange. Ir could go either way, and even end up being a total landalide foe Kamala. 1% more to flip Texas than Florida, less for Alaska, Ohio moving away from Trump... The microphone sex act video is making him a laughing stock again... I hope she can flip Texas and Florida. That would mean the election was over immediately.

Odds basically even now Trump still very marginally ahead but it’s tilting the other way the whole time while I’m not sure he will win I do think that Iowa poll is BS but it has a good track history so election day will tell us everything I don’t believe anyone truly knows what will happen

Even if the Iowa poll is within margin of error, that was a State he won comfortably in 2020 and the fact there's doubts in what should be an easy win for him doesn't look good for the trends in the swing states at all.

 

That's the first bit of optimism I've felt in a while, although still cautiously so. I'm worried about the aftermath either way, while I'm sure there'll be preparation he won't accept a loss, he wasn't exactly punished for it last time so who knows what he or his supporters could do :/

I am stoked about the Iowa poll - all hail Selzer - she also saw the red shifts in 2016 and 2020 that no one else saw coming. It confirms a lot of my priors that we are in a much more favourable Democratic environment than the polls are showing - that's how the campaigns and apparent reaction to them are behaving. Hopefully it's somewhere in the region of the reality and all the other polls are herding bitches.

Odds basically even now Trump still very marginally ahead but it’s tilting the other way the whole time while I’m not sure he will win I do think that Iowa poll is BS but it has a good track history so election day will tell us everything I don’t believe anyone truly knows what will happen

 

:lol: So the most ACCURATE pollster OF THEM ALL!!!!!!!, that correctly predicted Trump was underpredicted in 2020 and that was the coal mine canary for Hillwry in 2016, is auddwnly ... bullshit? Just because? When the odds were skewed thanks to sandbagging rich men in the odds? Mmmkay. The more likely thing, if no uniform swing, is the state loves Kamala, rather than the poll is bullshit.

Anyone staying up Wed? I'll go to bed as nothing will happen before 2am here, then get up early. Hope we know by 9 as have to take dog to vet then. Abscess on her face from a bad tooth so going to pull tooth and drain it.

I've already stayed up all night and then gone into work once this year. I won't be doing it for this. If the polls are right, we won't know the result on Wednesday.

This actually happens the day I go on holiday, so I'll try and be as invested as I can but I won't be as focused on it.

 

Hopefully the annoying orange doesn't win this.

:lol: So the most ACCURATE pollster OF THEM ALL!!!!!!!, that correctly predicted Trump was underpredicted in 2020 and that was the coal mine canary for Hillwry in 2016, is auddwnly ... bullshit? Just because? When the odds were skewed thanks to sandbagging rich men in the odds? Mmmkay. The more likely thing, if no uniform swing, is the state loves Kamala, rather than the poll is bullshit.

 

I find it hard to believe Trump is +10 on Emerson but down 3 in that one for the same state. One of them has it majorly wrong and given Iowa has become strong republican last two elections I see no reason why it’d suddenly switch out of sync with everywhere else. Time will tell though

I've already stayed up all night and then gone into work once this year. I won't be doing it for this. If the polls are right, we won't know the result on Wednesday.

 

This! I did it on 2 hr sleep snd it was strocious. 4 for Halloween and 4 the night before thst vy accident. Ah gotta get to sleep!! Although the last two cycles, I woke up without wsnting to and couldn't get back to sleep once I checked the results...

I find it hard to believe Trump is +10 on Emerson but down 3 in that one for the same state. One of them has it majorly wrong and given Iowa has become strong republican last two elections I see no reason why it’d suddenly switch out of sync with everywhere else. Time will tell though

 

Those pollsters are bandwagining and are conpletely out of it. They boughr ibto the betting sandbagging odds.

I’ll do what I did for the General Election. Go to bed and get up around 3/4am. I think we’ll have a very strong idea by then of the direction of travel, even if an official call won’t come until much later in the day.

Hmm goinf to bed earlier could be a good shout, in caee I wake up eaely again

If there is a big shift overall, or with certain demographics, then we will probably have a good idea just by looking at the margins/turnout in two counties in Indiana: Hamilton County (affluent, white suburban county) and Lake County (white working class with a lot of black/hispanic voters too). Indiana of course isn't competitive but it counts super quickly and is the first state in the US to close polls, alongside Kentucky. It's what told me in 2020 that Biden would win the 3 midwestern swing states. The very first results were Florida which of course were very scary and weren't even close to being repeated anywhere else in the country.

 

If those two counties don't show a clear shift or if they shift in different directions then we'll be waiting for each swing state, which wouldn't be unexpected given how tight the polling is.

 

I'm travelling to the UK on Wednesday so happy to mess up my sleep pattern again and then sleep through the train/bus/plane journeys that will take up the entire day.

Edited November 3, 2024Nov 3 by Harve

Yeh I am off this week so will stay up, although I forgot that they are 6 hours behind us so maybe will get up around 1-2am, do love a bit of Wolfie and Kingo on CNN with the magic wall showing the stats, ‘that's what we do in this country, we do the math, we have to count the votes’!