I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm not optimistic.

 

There's nothing Trump could do to lose supporters. Nothing.

Internal polling is so bad for Trump that they are pulling all the tricks they can in Nebraska and Georgia. Alaska is looking cloder thsn it should, as is Morth Carolina, Ohio and Texas...

 

Ohio and Texas are not in play at all but North Carolina has been consistently showing Kamala in front which has to be a huge concern as he won there last time. Right now I’ve gone from 50/50 to 60/40 Kamala but still all the battleground states are super close

 

 

Trump looking very good now in the latest 538 polls. He's going to win this.

are we even looking at the same 538? 😭😭

:rofl: :rofl:

 

You mean the ones HEAVILY WEIGHTING in fsvour of the fash? Most polls have Kamala ahead in all the states she needs x

 

Yeah last time I looked I thought Kamala was ahead in all of the swing state polls apart from Georgia. I am not including Florida as a swing state though

 

EDIT: Trump is a little ahead in AZ and 0.1% ahead in NC but mostly as I said.

Edited September 22, 2024Sep 22 by TheSnake

Ohio and Texas are not in play at all but North Carolina has been consistently showing Kamala in front which has to be a huge concern as he won there last time. Right now I’ve gone from 50/50 to 60/40 Kamala but still all the battleground states are super close

 

That's not the point. They WOULD be in play in a fully fair election, but even as is - oh, btw, Alaska is competitive too - it means Trump has to pull money away from other states to shore up the support in states that should be locked in. That's never a good sign.

That's not the point. They WOULD be in play in a fully fair election, but even as is - oh, btw, Alaska is competitive too - it means Trump has to pull money away from other states to shore up the support in states that should be locked in. That's never a good sign.

 

I don’t subscribe to that I think Trump won’t worry about those states and if Kamala tries to win Texas she’s just wasting her time and money. A Virginia poll(safe dem) two days ago showed Trump even and another two points behind so it can go both ways plus they have a Republican Governor who’s quite popular so if someone was super biased they could claim Virginia is now in play but the reality is the battleground states are the only ones to watch and whether the sketchy tactics in Nebraska works out.

 

Kamala just seems to be repeating the abortion issue over and over and Trump the border over and over so I’m assuming they’ve both been told this works for them but it’s looking like Kamala will get 300+ by thin margins unless Trump can come up with something in the last 35 days

man what

 

 

 

The National votes are irrelevant as am sure you know. It's the swing states that matter.

Looking at the four polls released today. All from different pollsters 3 state battles and one national yet every single one is terrible for Trump

 

Down 1 in Nevada (has been up there for the last three months)

Down 1 in North Carolina(Won there in 2020 and cannot afford to lose it)

Down 3 in Michigan (Had a good chance there with the Shia Muslims angry over Gaza& Lebanon)

Down 5 nationally (becoming a consistent theme)

 

He definitely needs to change his stance on the second debate

He can't. The more voters see hin contrastef eith a younger candidate on a debate, whining and pouting, the more he loses that bizarre image of being s stronhman. He id very, very weak and whiny ... and old.

Is second debate happening though?!

The National votes are irrelevant as am sure you know. It's the swing states that matter.

 

No, they're not irrelevant. A D+3 national environment, which according to primary results is roughly what we're in (and the polls show even better but I'm still conservative on that), tends to translate to a Harris victory in the swing states as while there are individual variations in each state, determining whether they're on an individual rightward or leftward shift outside of what the polls tell us is political astrology; a broad national trend will in the majority of cases result in that playing out for Harris to get enough electoral votes.

 

It's a simple representation of a broader point that Harris is winning in the swing state polls too and is, while not decisively, ahead of Trump enough that at this picture we can have her as a slight, slight favourite for polling day. She only needs WI, MI and PA, in the first two she's the clear favourite, in PA it's starting to look promising, NC (with the implosion of Robinson's race) and NV look very possible too, slightly further away in GA and AZ as of this moment but previous statewide races in both of those have consistently narrowly gone blue so they're far from lost - though of course on the other hand NC is similarly tight but has often gone red.

 

Second debate would be great but I'm not expecting it.

Wisconsin is so scary. It's the state that has had the biggest polling misses and it's also the one that demographically should be more Republican than it actually is - it has only swung modestly rightwards compared to Iowa or Ohio. I believe that it's the whitest state in play for the Dems outside of New England.

 

I can't help but compare to state polls from this time in 2020. I know that a lot of work has gone into correcting that but I've not looked into what exactly or whether it has been successful.

No, they're not irrelevant. A D+3 national environment, which according to primary results is roughly what we're in (and the polls show even better but I'm still conservative on that), tends to translate to a Harris victory in the swing states as while there are individual variations in each state, determining whether they're on an individual rightward or leftward shift outside of what the polls tell us is political astrology; a broad national trend will in the majority of cases result in that playing out for Harris to get enough electoral votes.

 

It's a simple representation of a broader point that Harris is winning in the swing state polls too and is, while not decisively, ahead of Trump enough that at this picture we can have her as a slight, slight favourite for polling day. She only needs WI, MI and PA, in the first two she's the clear favourite, in PA it's starting to look promising, NC (with the implosion of Robinson's race) and NV look very possible too, slightly further away in GA and AZ as of this moment but previous statewide races in both of those have consistently narrowly gone blue so they're far from lost - though of course on the other hand NC is similarly tight but has often gone red.

 

Second debate would be great but I'm not expecting it.

 

But there might be a bit of a shy Trump element - 2020 election was closer in Wisconsin and a few other states than the polls suggested?!

Wisconsin is so scary. It's the state that has had the biggest polling misses and it's also the one that demographically should be more Republican than it actually is - it has only swung modestly rightwards compared to Iowa or Ohio. I believe that it's the whitest state in play for the Dems outside of New England.

 

I can't help but compare to state polls from this time in 2020. I know that a lot of work has gone into correcting that but I've not looked into what exactly or whether it has been successful.

 

 

But there might be a bit of a shy Trump element - 2020 election was closer in Wisconsin and a few other states than the polls suggested?!

 

I have seen this fairly often, the main reason I haven't been putting so much stock in shy Trumps or Wisconsin's fundamentals is that there's generally no reason to believe that polling misses are consistent from cycle to cycle, as polling companies should tend to update their methodologies based on their previous misses. My main approach to polls is that you just have to believe the averages and take those as the baseline rather than look for how much they'll get it wrong by, because it could genuinely be in either direction and though perceived wisdom (especially with 2016 and 2020, which is 2 data points, not enough for us to be positive on trend) is for it to be wrong in the favour of conservatives, there's been plenty of times where it's being wrong in favour of liberals.

 

Also Wisconsin is the second most likely state after Minnesota to benefit from Walz being on the ticket, minor but it adds to my image of its fundamentals holding enough. Now yes, the gut feeling that I share is that it'll be behind Michigan and indeed scary and possibly too close to call, but that isn't necessarily going to play out in reality.

But there might be a bit of a shy Trump element - 2020 election was closer in Wisconsin and a few other states than the polls suggested?!

There is absolutely nothing shy about a trump supporter.

 

There’s a reluctant trump voter but those are typically die in the wool republicans who would vote for literally anything on the ballot that has republican next to it. But they are already figured into the polling.

 

The societal conditions that lead to a shy Tory vote in the uk are not as present stateside as Americans on the whole tend to be a lot more upfront and vocal about their beliefs, even if it’s something we’d as Brit’s consider unpalatable. And Trump supporters do tend to be of the loud and braindeadproud variety

The way I look at it is the polls will undoubtably be wrong to a degree but they had Trump up not long ago so shy Trump element or not clearly something has shifted significantly. Even if the result isn’t 100% accurate the trend cannot be denied. In previous elections polls consistently showed something then the vote can surprise you when it’s something different but here the polls showed Trump doing great then good now bad so that’s a whole different story. It’s much less likely for the vote to surprise you under these circumstances

 

Is second debate happening though?!

 

At the moment no but there is the vice president debate on October 1. JD Vance vs Tim Walz

Edited September 24, 2024Sep 24 by Liam sota

North Carolina is now a swing state in this, and Alaska not far off! Statistical tie in NC. Disgrace that it's so close with that pos, but whatever.

North Carolina is now a swing state in this, and Alaska not far off! Statistical tie in NC. Disgrace that it's so close with that pos, but whatever.

 

I don’t know where you get this Alaska stuff from. Polls looking better for Trump the last few days. Would say it’s 55/45 Kamala. TBH Israel could well cost her the presidency. It’s getting harder for many to vote for someone allowing this mayhem

Hoe id the VICE PRESIDENT, ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL!!!, responsible for what Israel, an independemt country in the mifdle east, is doing? Isrsel ignores Biden. Trump would give it free reign, without a dingle criticism. What else do you expect Biden to do? Kamala is VP. And she' campaigning, not leading.

 

I don’t know where you get this Alaska stuff from. Polls looking better for Trump the last few days. Would say it’s 55/45 Kamala. TBH Israel could well cost her the presidency. It’s getting harder for many to vote for someone allowing this mayhem

 

A bunch of polls showing Kamala within striking distance in Alaska x She's turned NC into a swing state and Georgia and Arizona are looking worse and worse for Trump...

I don’t know where you get this Alaska stuff from. Polls looking better for Trump the last few days. Would say it’s 55/45 Kamala. TBH Israel could well cost her the presidency. It’s getting harder for many to vote for someone allowing this mayhem

 

 

What can she reasonably do though as VP? She's not the current President and America can't do a lot if leaders won't listen to them.

 

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm not optimistic.

 

There's nothing Trump could do to lose supporters. Nothing.

 

Plus Trump usually overperforms his poll ratings. So that's why I think he'll win a close election. Kamala will win the popular vote though.