January 19Jan 19 Labour Party news to watch out for this week- the six month suspension of the seven Labour MPs that voted to scrap the Catholic tax (two child benefit cap) is due to end this week (if my maths are correct). Iām predicting that 2 of them will not return to the fold.
January 19Jan 19 Author The story about McDonnell (with Corbyn) today might well keep him out - which would be unfortunate as he could be very useful to Labour and is probably one of the more reasonable among those 7. Ā Sultana's also been very critical of Labour too while an independent, while the Gaza ceasefire might slow that I'd be surprised if she goes back to them now - she's one of the better MPs at social media and I've thought for a few months she's been angling to be a left-wing voice outside of Labour, whatever form that may hold.Ā Would expect most of the rest to return, Burgon may be the other hold out.
January 26Jan 26 @1883286551783702616Ā @1883247600641736754Ā At some point Labour MPs will have to realise the Tories made a big mistake backing Sunak and they shouldnāt make the same mistake with this guy. If the Greens or Lib Demās actually got their act together they really could start going below 20%
January 26Jan 26 He literally got Labour in power :lol: That's not a mistake. The Tories were damned no matter who they picked, support was wavering and the laughing stock of Liz Truss won't be forgotten about for a generation. She her attempts to twek for the MAGA crowd and Reform, but she is a genuine joke in this country.Ā Labour are a bit stuck at the moment as unless they grow the economy and people feel richer that's going to be the sticky point, so they're going to have to make some decisions which will annoying some people. Really hope they don't cave in the deregulation of building housing though. That's a complete mess waiting to happen that's already happening. But Trump thinks he's doing a good job, so be interesting to see how the Reform weirdos react to that.
January 26Jan 26 Author Thought this might be Trump hitting a right note for once in his life and saying Starmer's doing a 'very good job' as that's all over the airwaves this morning. But no, as much as you are willing to listen to what Trump says, that'd never get in the way of your Starmer hatred.Ā It's a really weird approval stat because there's not much he's done wrong. The painful headlines, where it comes from, are an after effect of the Conservative government and every communication from Starmer doing the business of government shows he and his team are doing a lot of really good stuff. Except on PR, where they're woeful.Ā Can't see them going below 20% in the polls, at least not for long. The last week has been comparatively good; historically government approval tends to recover up to high 20s/low 30s given good outlook (and there is good outlook), adjust slightly downwards for polarisation and there's not much impetus to change horses.
January 26Jan 26 Starmer's having to inherit the mess the Tories caused. I also think there's many that just want him to fail regardless.Ā Also, it's a MailOnline poll. Not exactly unbiased.
January 26Jan 26 Thought this might be Trump hitting a right note for once in his life and saying Starmer's doing a 'very good job' as that's all over the airwaves this morning. But no, as much as you are willing to listen to what Trump says, that'd never get in the way of your Starmer hatred.Ā It's a really weird approval stat because there's not much he's done wrong. The painful headlines, where it comes from, are an after effect of the Conservative government and every communication from Starmer doing the business of government shows he and his team are doing a lot of really good stuff. Except on PR, where they're woeful.Ā Can't see them going below 20% in the polls, at least not for long. The last week has been comparatively good; historically government approval tends to recover up to high 20s/low 30s given good outlook (and there is good outlook), adjust slightly downwards for polarisation and there's not much impetus to change horses.Ā Yeah the PR has been disasterous, but they can claw some stuff back and as soon as we get to April, the WFA topic will go back down.Ā The big thing for me is while Reform can quite clearly shout the loudest, they're not really making any big grounds in the council by-elections. Now they'll tell you "they're not planning on winning these seats", they're going to have to win either ALL of the Brexit area seats or eat in to the liberal vote, which I can't see.
January 26Jan 26 Was great seeing Trump (as much as I dislike him) saying Starmer was doing a very good job. Especially in contrast to Elon. Hopefully things will be more smooth sailing than previously thought. Ā Also large MRP poll showing every single constituency in the UK wants the EU to be top priority for trading relations, even in reform seats... Definitely feel like we'll be looking at returning to the EU sometime in the 2030s if Labour get a 2nd term. Or at the very least re-joining the single market. Ā https://www.bestforbritain.org/january_2025...oritising_trade Edited January 26Jan 26 by Envoirment
January 26Jan 26 Iām sure Keir Starmer will be very happy about this Trump endorsement, I imagine he would see a Prime Minister getting his seal of approval as a very fine thing indeed. Ā Apropos of nothing, hereās a Tweet from a few years back - Ā @1134833523959971840
January 26Jan 26 Iām sure Keir Starmer will be very happy about this Trump endorsement, I imagine he would see a Prime Minister getting his seal of approval as a very fine thing indeed. Ā Apropos of nothing, hereās a Tweet from a few years back - Ā @1134833523959971840Ā To be fair, there's a bit more nuance due to the fact Boris was in charge of Brexit at the time and the leaks from US trade negotiations had things such as opening up the NHS to private US pharmaceutical companies as well as things like allowing import/selling of chlorinated chicken. Not to mention the position Starmer is in currently is completely different from 5-6 years ago, being Prime Minister. Edited January 27Jan 27 by Envoirment
January 26Jan 26 Iām sure Keir Starmer will be very happy about this Trump endorsement, I imagine he would see a Prime Minister getting his seal of approval as a very fine thing indeed. Ā Apropos of nothing, hereās a Tweet from a few years back - Ā @1134833523959971840Ā !!!Ā
January 26Jan 26 Honestly I think the polls are nothing to be concerned about. Labour are hideously over represented in parliament as a by product of get them out itis, in 5 years time there will be a natural correction but labour will still form the next government. Unless they do something truly awfulĀ Weāre still feeling the Tory pain, itāll take a couple of years before the average person starts to feel the material impact in the pocket, and basically the full term before they start to notice it in places like public services. Thatāll be enough for us to get a second starmer term
January 30Jan 30 "These are my principles, and if you don't like them I have others"Ā @1884772402225189127
January 30Jan 30 Starmer's having to inherit the mess the Tories caused. I also think there's many that just want him to fail regardless.Ā Also, it's a MailOnline poll. Not exactly unbiased.Ā The point of inheriting a mess is that you clear it up, not make a much bigger mess. You can look at that polls before he was PM and now, why would the same people who didnāt disapprove of him and helped elect him now want him to fail? This is just a mentality stating āif heās doing a bad job itās someone elseās fault or people are biased for thinking soāā¦.what if heās just doing a bad job? Is that not a more reasonable conclusion? And yeah one is a mail poll but there are 100 others all saying the same thing. Ā This from Yougov just yesterday Ā @1884247984881426938Ā Yeah the PR has been disasterous, but they can claw some stuff back and as soon as we get to April, the WFA topic will go back down.Ā The big thing for me is while Reform can quite clearly shout the loudest, they're not really making any big grounds in the council by-elections. Now they'll tell you "they're not planning on winning these seats", they're going to have to win either ALL of the Brexit area seats or eat in to the liberal vote, which I can't see.Ā I donāt really follow council elections but if you browse https://x.com/britainelects?s=21 they seem to be doing reasonably well in them all. Iām not sold on reforms chances but the difference this time with Farage and his whole thing is that there seems to be a lot of money behind it. Ā Odds wise heās 2/1 to be next prime minister. Theyāre now topping the polls. Itās in much better shape than previously. If Starmer is there itās the ideal time for a Farage as Starmer is so robotic and absent that it makes Farage look better and more appealingĀ Iām sure Keir Starmer will be very happy about this Trump endorsement, I imagine he would see a Prime Minister getting his seal of approval as a very fine thing indeed. Ā Apropos of nothing, hereās a Tweet from a few years back - Ā @1134833523959971840Ā You can do that with almost any issue with this guy. He previously tweeted that we must get justice for the Waspi women then completely switched in power. Said that āweā failed the grooming gang victims but refuses a public inquiry. Ā He also tweeted about the Heathrow runway @1233061681464532999Ā The guy has no principles or ethics so flipping positions means nothing to him since heās a careerist and all that matters is power. The problem with that is people can see through it and itās hard for most people to support someone like that. The only consistent position heās ever shown is being repulsed by the online world. Trying to prosecute people for memes and things like this. Iām not sure what that is all about but thatās the only thing heās consistent on. Probably why his response to the Southport attack recently was to blame Amazon and act like making people show ID will be the solution(the perpetrator was 9 days short of his 18th birthday) Ā Kissing up to Trump isnāt a surprise at all. I find it hard to believe heās been successful in life on merit. This guy has oversaw the worst CPS ever and has a knighthood, he clearly knows how to please people with power and influence. Ā Thought this might be Trump hitting a right note for once in his life and saying Starmer's doing a 'very good job' as that's all over the airwaves this morning. But no, as much as you are willing to listen to what Trump says, that'd never get in the way of your Starmer hatred.Ā It's a really weird approval stat because there's not much he's done wrong. The painful headlines, where it comes from, are an after effect of the Conservative government and every communication from Starmer doing the business of government shows he and his team are doing a lot of really good stuff. Except on PR, where they're woeful.Ā Can't see them going below 20% in the polls, at least not for long. The last week has been comparatively good; historically government approval tends to recover up to high 20s/low 30s given good outlook (and there is good outlook), adjust slightly downwards for polarisation and there's not much impetus to change horses.Ā Not seeing how itās a weird stat when itās just a reflection of the common view. You canāt alienate almost every group possible and not have a hugely unpopular rating. Ā Just list them. Ā The winter fuel allowance and some other issues completely alienated pensioners and broke down trust with them. His very hypocritical statements on the Middle East deaths have caused huge damage with Muslim voters Heās known as two-tier Keir with most of them red wall type working class people & his painting people as far-right went down badly Environmentalists now see him as an enemy and having betrayed them Farmers and the rural people have a visceral hatred of him Most far leftists basically view him as a Tory in all but name and heās had a mini purge of those MPs too Ā These arenāt people who are just going to flip back. Heās lost most of those forever. Ā This guy promised change but weāve seen the same cronyism, the same scandals, the same austerity just with a touch more financial incompetence and lack of business nous. Ā I said at the time it was a poor budget because it was reliant on growth that might not come, not only hasnāt it come but theyāve weakened the pound, increased borrowing rates and now theyāre needing to borrow more than ever at higher rates. So now theyāre unable to fulfill promises and instead have to target the people on benefits to save money. Of course thatās not going down well either. Ā @1883417755501883548Ā @1884186669827674585Ā @1883330098331632104 Ā The latest flip flop is the huge increase in council tax Keir Starmer promised wouldnāt happen Ā @1883868377837658161Ā Ā I canāt tell who is a far leftish who is a socialist who is a right winger etc anymore because theyāre all united in their contempt for this man. Iāve never known Labour to be so unpopular in London in my life. Nothing has improved but a lot has got worse. Starmer doesnāt have the charisma or charm or ability to turn that around. Ā Every time I look somebody new is regretting ever supporting him. @1884583249818570930Ā Who is he winning over? The Heathrow runaway decision was mocked by Michael OāLeary. He is writing in the daily mail attacking climate campaigners, does he think he can win over daily mail readers? He continually speaks to the sun touting what he thinks right wing people want to hear but they canāt stand him and he loses more people by doing that. Just yesterday he compared himself to thatcher. Is this not tone-deaf? Ā Like I said before he has no common sense. This is a guy who probably used to defend the scum of the earth, shake hands with the opposition barrister then go to the pub have a laugh go home. Itās not real to him. He does not care about most issues or people. Itās all a days work. He does not have ideas or plans. Itās not going to change with someone like that. So thatās why I think itāll go lower as right now a lot of people unhappy with him still would probably vote Labour over the choices available. Ā The way he treated those MPs who voted against him showed who he was then. Just a guy trying to control people and have order not interested in fairness or justice or morals or principles. Now heās leaking the ones who stopped criticising him will get the whip back. Basically blackmail in a way. @1884728482791379131Ā Who is this supposed to impress or win votes from? @1884281025972613507 A purely negative move and thatās all I see from this Gov. Just moves designed to please friends behind the scenes the public would never support or vote for. Ā Huge knife crime problem. Their solution is to blame Amazon. Huge national crimes caused often by mental health services failingā¦..their solution? Cut disability benefits. Huge financial black hole they target the most vulnerable for cuts. You have people like Alan Sugar getting a pension and they cut winter fuel allowance for people struggling. Itās all ill-thought out desperation by people out of their depth economically and culturally. Ā @1884576458611282115 @1884542007231529307Ā The next election is miles away so it might not matter at the moment but Starmer on -42 is as bad as Sunak or Johnson ever got and that shouldnāt be swatted away Ā Ā Ā
January 30Jan 30 For what its worth, I have zero issues with most of what Starmer has done. Most of these 'issues' seem to boil down to a mix of a) people have forgotten what an actual governing government looks like and things take time b) bad faith arguing to try and make Labour look as bad as literal traitors and compleely incompetent idiots and c) media that is used to catering for a retired audience throwing an absolute shit fit when Labour "cut winter fuel" which leaves out the fact that they also put the pension up Ā£600 on last year which more than covers the amount "lost".Ā To be honest I would actually enjoy even more of a redistribution. So Tory voters and rightwingers are mad? Tough titties. The rest of us have had their will enforced on us for 14 years. Personally I would love it if the absolute opposite of what they would like was enforced on them. They're lucky Starmer's government isn't extreme enough to want to do that.Ā Regarding the disability and not helping minorities. That is a misfire & missed opportunity in my book. They should take advantage of their majority instead of chasing the middle on every possible issue. Some is sensible.Ā But broadly I think they are being over-criticized.
January 30Jan 30 Author So, I approach my criticism of the government very carefully, as they're currently the closest to my ideological position that the UK's Overton window of acceptable governments would seem to allow, even if they're still far from ideal. That isn't to say I'm always ideological with my criticisms, but I tend to reject or otherwise defend the government against criticisms where the framing of such criticism would help the Conservatives or Reform. Ā Principally because if I did that, and the end result at the end of this parliament was a Conservative or (god forbid) a Reform government, I know that my problems with the government would only intensify, and the government would also be run by a bunch of amoral, feckless charlatans intent on sucking up public money, and only passing bills that move society away from my preferred direction. I had 14 years of that, it was always depressing to think about, and I don't want to go back there. You might respond and say that the Labour government are that, but they're not, there is an intent from all departments to show their plans for the next parliament, they clearly have an intent to pass bills that will make the country a better place and it IS in my preferred direction, if limited.Ā The problem is, that most criticisms coming in from the media HAVE been from that sort of framing, and as Jupiter says, on some of them it's groups the Conservative government always favoured at the expense of others. The WFA is a good example: it was never on a broad level harmful to those it claimed to be affecting, there were so many communiques from the government emphasising that those who needed help would still get it, and the end result of it is that pensioners STILL had more money than before due to their inflation rises, just a tad less than they would have otherwise had. I wouldn't have done it, as it's a lightning rod for criticism for not that much money, but it's hard to argue it was harmful.Ā There's plenty of good stuff they have done already, they've reformed rules for renters, they've improved protections for children, they've got massive investment in offshore wind going, they're relaxing planning rules, everything that Reeves has announced yesterday will be great when they do it. They're far more of a 'get on with the job' type of government than the Tories were (where a major part of the problem was unqualified ministers in ill-suited departments, for the most part, the Labour cabinet is extraordinarily well-appointed), and maybe some of that will come to fruition, maybe not, but I despise the lack of nuance sites like Twitter encourage, the government don't do this, therefore they're evil. On the whole, they're doing the work of government and doing it fairly well, but the media always relentlessly focuses on the negatives, and they're encouraged to do this because their owners are opposed to Labour increasing their taxes, taxes they need to do all this stuff.Ā Now there are things the government have done that I can and do criticise, because it's from a progressive framing, but even then not all of those I'm with. Like, I'm not with some of the left for going on against the third runway, important infrastructure projects are how we get our economy out of a rut, and it's not a central pillar of the environment angle. I am concerned about the 'Tory policies' at W&P, but I can see that they'd not want to do dramatic fiscal stuff at the moment. I recoil when KS talks about Israel/Palestine in his statements, because the loss of Palestinian life is always glossed over, and that's a moral failing there. I do think there's not enough dramatic change to guarantee that people will feel better by the end of the Parliament, and I'm worried that they will fail. They should be moving closer to Europe, KS should be less flippy-floppy, but I've never held that TOO much against any politician as any good one adjusts their strategy based on circumstances. And Labour certainly do have a lot of difficult circumstances that I believe people should be more understanding of.Ā It's that if you take time to go beyond the headlines, you'd find good stuff going on, which you would find far less of with the previous government. So many of those tweets just lack the nuance to take this government at the whole picture, which is some very good stuff, and some bad stuff. Which is enough to make it by far the best government of my adult lifetime.
Create an account or sign in to comment