So we are looking at 5 non-Christmas songs top 40 at this stage, with Die With A Smile and Sailor Song just outside. With today being a working day, I wouldn't be surprised if it helps the non-Christmas songs enough to keep Chrystal and/or Defying Gravity in at least.

 

Christmas eve streams are always manic and technically it's just a normal day

 

#prayforstickseason at #87. The 10th longest continuous run in the Top 75 is 67 weeks, and the 10th longest continuous run in the Top 100 is 88 weeks - neither of those top 10s have changed since 'Heat Waves' ended its runs in 2022, and you have to wonder when they will again if 'Stick Season' drops out entirely. The last song to survive two Christmases in even the Top 100 was 'Blinding Lights' in 2019 and 2020.

Eartha Kitt's 'Santa Baby' making a shock appearance out of nowhere for the first time this season - didn't think it was going to chart this year. Such a shame that Kylie's version has fallen out of favour this year :(

Yeah stick season could miss out for sure and to be honest it should enough is enough

#prayforstickseason at #87. The 10th longest continuous run in the Top 75 is 67 weeks, and the 10th longest continuous run in the Top 100 is 88 weeks - neither of those top 10s have changed since 'Heat Waves' ended its runs in 2022, and you have to wonder when they will again if 'Stick Season' drops out entirely. The last song to survive two Christmases in even the Top 100 was 'Blinding Lights' in 2019 and 2020.

I wouldn't ever count out a future single down the line. This just happens to be one of the optimal chart date arrangements for maxing Christmas music in a single week. 2026 for instance (Christmas on a Friday) probably won't cause quite as much disruption on a single week.

Does anyone think it might be at all likely Perrie could sneak in at the low end of the Top 100 come Friday, especially as she’s one of the few Christmas songs not on ACR?

 

I know she’s Top 100 on Apple Music, and averaging 250k on Spotify (most will be from the UK I’d assume).

I wouldn't ever count out a future single down the line. This just happens to be one of the optimal chart date arrangements for maxing Christmas music in a single week. 2026 for instance (Christmas on a Friday) probably won't cause quite as much disruption on a single week.

That is true. I suppose 'Beautiful Things' and 'Lose Control' could also notch up long runs if they survive (albeit I'd be a little less enthused about them doing so).

At least on Thursday, the non-Christmas songs will slightly gain streams and the Christmas songs will lose streams. Looks like the Christmas Day streams will be lost next year with Christmas falling on a Thursday

Will spotify go by previous year's for Thursdays streams, we know that christmas songs usually nosedive on boxing day but we also know spotify guesses them, not sure it will make a massive difference to the chart though

sure it's based on previous years data so actually super easy to predict in their algorythm

Do they actually go off the previous year? For example Halloween songs missed the top 40 this year as the day itself was on Thursday so streams must have been underestimated, surely they didn't base those numbers on the previous Halloween. I think they'll actually inflate the streaming numbers of Christmas songs (unless they use Amazon as a basis)

Edited December 24, 20241 yr by gasman449

I don't think anybody really knows how Thursday streams are calculated.

I don't think anybody really knows how Thursday streams are calculated.

This - all we've ever heard is that it's based on trends across the week. Anything more is pure speculation and we've definitely not heard anything about them using historical data to estimate.

The estimate isn’t some algorithm crunching the numbers using math and historical data. It’s one guy with a pen and paper at radio 1 having a guess

The estimate isn’t some algorithm crunching the numbers using math and historical data. It’s one guy with a pen and paper at radio 1 having a guess

Also untrue when Radio 1 have nothing to do with compiling the chart

The estimate isn’t some algorithm crunching the numbers using math and historical data. It’s one guy with a pen and paper at radio 1 having a guess

a few years back I was at a conference on data science in London and they explained it was done with machine learning

so based on past data then predicting based on that

a few years back I was at a conference on data science in London and they explained it was done with machine learning

so based on past data then predicting based on that

Which is perhaps how algorithms and simulations work usually but I don't think the OCC's system is that advanced, and we have been told in a sales report that it's based on trends over the week.

While we have no idea how the OCC algorithm works I think we’ve seen enough cases of obvious over and underestimation over the years to know that it isn’t particularly sophisticated. “Three Lions” clearly being overestimated on a Thursday after England were knocked out is one example that springs to mind, as well as Halloween obviously being underestimated this year. I imagine Boxing Day will likely be overestimated for Christmas songs this year as the rest of the week will have been so much higher.

Just realised "Feliz Navidad" is looking to go top 20 for the first time! *_* Fingers crossed it manages to and doesn't get stuck at #21 again!

Just realised "Feliz Navidad" is looking to go top 20 for the first time! *_* Fingers crossed it manages to and doesn't get stuck at #21 again!

Yes please, make it happen Santa, we've been good this year!