I realise that viewers don't always equate to sales, and also that the popularity or otherwise of the winner has an effect on things, so I decided to try and number crunch it with a view to predicting weekly sales for Louisa's track. Here are the past winners again and rather than posting a sales figure for each week I have one, I've instead turned it into a number that is 'how many people were watching the final results show for each individual sale in the weeks in question', obviously after the first week the figures tend to get big quite quickly (i.e. a lot of people needed to be watching the final show to translate into each sale in weeks 2 onwards). If we looked just at the first week sale and calculate the number of viewers of the final show needed to secure each sale, then rank the winners accordingly, we get this chart of winners apparent popularity among X Factor final viewers:

 

1. Shayne Ward - 13.342 viewers per first week sale

2. Leona Lewis - 18.871

3. James Arthur - 20.508

4. Alexandra Burke - 24.408

5. Joe McElderry - 36.111

6. Ben Haenow - 36.795

7. Matt Cardle - 37,699

8. Leon Jackson - 44.353

9. Little Mix - 57.536

10. Sam Bailey - 59.925

11. Steve Brookstein - 78.197

 

If we can correctly gauge Louisa's popularity against that scale and crunch the numbers we could come up with a weekly estimate of her sales for the first two or three weeks, and from thence to a xmas number one prediction......

 

Here's all the figures for all the weeks that I have a sales figure for:

 

Steve -

Wk 1 - 78.197 viewers per sale

Wk 2 - 377.273

Wk 3 - 585.882

 

Shayne -

Wk 1 - 13.342

Wk 2 - 74.839

Wk 3 - 182.819

 

Leona -

Wk 1 - 18.871

Wk 2 - 98.875

Wk 3 - 276.410

Wk 4 - 537.924

 

Leon -

Wk 1 - 44.353

Wk 2 - 102.664

Wk 3 - 381.021

 

Alexandra -

Wk 1 - 24.408

Wk 2 - 45.080

Wk 3 - 134.605

Wk 4 - 408.246

 

Joe -

Wk 1 - 36.111

Wk 2 - 83.176

Wk 3 - 233.265

 

Matt -

Wk 1 - 37.699

Wk 2 - 62.939

Wk 3 - 146.412

Wk 4 - 358.878

Wk 5 - 557.164

 

Little -

Wk 1 - 57.536

Wk 2 - 103.707

 

James -

Wk 1 - 20.508

Wk 2 - 44.867

Wk 3 - 54.666

Wk 4 - 136.084

 

Sam -

Wk 1 - 59.925

Wk 2 - 104.593

Wk 3 - 321.048

 

Ben -

Wk 1 - 36.795

Wk 2 - 71.487

Wk 3 - 154.551

Wk 4 - 249.170

Wk 5 - 324.209

Wk 6 - 330.385

 

 

 

I was going to ask whether anyone had plotted first-week sales of winners' singles against viewing figures for that year's finals to see how much correlation there was.

But it looks like the answer is not much, which is how I remembered it.

 

Didn't see your post till afterwards, but I have crunched all the numbers, so hope my post below is useful. And please let me know where you think Louisa will rank compared to her predecessors.

I'm guessing Louisa will have a few TV/Radio appearances this next week, she's bound to be on Grimmer's radio show and probably Chris Evans, wonder if it will make it onto both radio 1 and radio 2's playlist, that will be pretty important to its sales

The CD for Louisa's single will be out Wednesday:

 

http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/l...r-young__13166/

 

They should hold it back until Friday if they want to have a chance at #1 especially as her streaming might not be huge either.

I'm guessing Louisa will have a few TV/Radio appearances this next week, she's bound to be on Grimmer's radio show and probably Chris Evans, wonder if it will make it onto both radio 1 and radio 2's playlist, that will be pretty important to its sales

 

Already on the radio 1 playlist before winner was announced

They should hold it back until Friday if they want to have a chance at #1 especially as her streaming might not be huge either.

I think they usually want it out there as soon as possible after the show though

Oops... heres the figures:

2004 - The Brookstein Aid Factor

Sat 11th Dec 1830 8.62m (#14)

Sat 11th Dec 2132 9.96m (#20)

 

2005 - The Ward Factor

Sat 17th Dec 1839 9.65m (#13)

Sat 17th Dec 2110 9.90m (#11)

 

2006 - The Lewis Factor

Sat 16th Dec 1859 10.52m (#4)

Sat 16th Dec 2129 10.78m (#3)

 

2007 - The Jackson Factor

Sat 15th Dec 1914 11.78m (#2)

Sat 15th Dec 2136 12.23m (#1)

 

2008 - The Burke Factor

Sat 13th Dec 1909 13.77m (#2)

Sat 13th Dec 2145 14.06m (#1)

 

2009 - Rage Against The McElderry Factor

Sat 12th Dec 1930 13.34m (#2)

Sun 13th Dec 1929 16.28m (#1)

 

2010 - The Cardle Factor

Sat 11th Dec 1859 13.94m (#4)

Sun 12th Dec 1929 16.55m (#1)

 

2011 - The Little Military Mix Choir Factor

Sat 10th Dec 1959 10.35m (#4)

Sun 11th Dec 1929 12.09m (#1)

 

2012 - The Justice Arthur Factor

Sat 8th Dec 2000 8.78m (#4)

Sun 9th Dec 1939 10.04m (#3)

 

2013 - The Bailey Factor

Sat 14th Dec 1959 7.79m (#7)

Sun 15th Dec 1930 8.92m (#3)

 

2014 - The Haenow Factor

Sat 13th Dec 2029 7.34m (#4)

Sun 14th Dec 2003 8.03m (#3)

 

Some corrections, as you've not included HD for 2010 beyond:

 

Sat 11th Dec 1859 15.11m (#2)

Sun 12th Dec 1929 17.71m (#1)

 

2011 - The Little Military Mix Choir Factor

Sat 10th Dec 1959 11.71m (#2)

Sun 11th Dec 1929 13.46m (#1)

 

2012 - The Justice Arthur Factor

Sat 8th Dec 2000 10.19m (#4)

Sun 9th Dec 1939 11.50m (#3)

 

2013 - The Bailey Factor

Sat 14th Dec 1959 9.11m (#7)

Sun 15th Dec 1930 10.20m (#3)

 

2014 - The Haenow Factor

Sat 13th Dec 2029 8.93m (#4)

Sun 14th Dec 2003 9.88m (#3)

X Factor winners single week 1 totals:

 

742,180 - That's My Goal: Shayne Ward

576,046 - Hallelujah: Alexandra Burke

571,253 - A Moment Like This: Leona Lewis

489,560 - Impossible: James Arthur

450,838 - The Climb: Joe McElderry

439,007 - When We Collide: Matt Cardle

275,747 - When You Believe: Leon Jackson

214,239 - Something I Need: Ben Haenow

210,129 - Cannonball: Little Mix

148,853 - Skyscraper: Sam Bailey

127,372 - Against All Odds: Steve Brookstein

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see Louisa towards the bottom of that total but it could be higher. Who knows.

Edited December 14, 201510 yr by Hassaan

X Factor winners single week 1 totals:

 

742,180 - That's My Goal: Shayne Ward

576,046 - Hallelujah: Alexandra Burke

571,253 - A Moment Like This: Leona Lewis

489,560 - Impossible: James Arthur

450,838 - The Climb: Joe McElderry

439,007 - When We Collide: Matt Cardle

275,747 - When You Believe: Leon Jackson

214,239 - Something I Need: Ben Haenow

210,129 - Cannonball: Little Mix

148,853 - Skyscraper: Sam Bailey

127,372 - Against All Odds: Steve Brookstein

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see Louisa towards the bottom of that total but it could be higher. Who knows.

Given the viewing figures, a bottom three place looks highly probable.

Kylie isn't in the Top 20 in the midweeks

Really hoping Adele can hit 2million on Friday - that'll be 28 days - the timeframe we expect a massive album to hit a million!

 

 

There's no album we'd expect to hit a million in 28 days any more - apart from an Adele album. Take That, Coldplay, Rihanna...none of them would make 1 million a month but it will be interesting to see how close Coldplay get in its first 4 weeks.

Streams will kill History, top 5 should be enough :(

what time do the OCC usually update the website on Mondays?

what time do the OCC usually update the website on Mondays?

17:45

Kylie isn't in the Top 20 in the midweeks

 

 

Not a surprise .... CD's at 13.99 and 12.99 are selling nothing and I don't blame buyers....

 

and on her own website the CD and Vinyl has been out of stock for nearly a week...... how bad is that?

 

Greedy Parlophone.

Edited December 14, 201510 yr by SmileyKylie

It's only the deluxe edition that's being sold for that price on Amazon and in HMV, the same price range as any other deluxe album. The standard edition is being sold for less than the average one in most supermarkets and is on offer in both Tesco and on Amazon so price has nothing to do with it.

 

She will climb in the next days anyway thanks to her Strictly promotion.

Hoping Fleur has climbed a bit

Not a surprise .... CD's at 13.99 and 12.99 are selling nothing and I don't blame buyers....

 

and on her own website the CD and Vinyl has been out of stock for nearly a week...... how bad is that?

 

Greedy Parlophone.

 

Most people will be buying from other retailers anyway so they can buy multiple other items, being out of stock on her website will have little effect.

It's only the deluxe edition that's being sold for that price on Amazon and in HMV, the same price range as any other deluxe album. The standard edition is being sold for less than the average one in most supermarkets and is on offer in both Tesco and on Amazon so price has nothing to do with it.

 

She will climb in the next days anyway thanks to her Strictly promotion.

 

 

Lets hope so but all I have seen across the boards are falling chart positions ..... hopefully Xmas they will buy but pricing is crucial in a very busy market......

 

HMV 2 for £15 etc, google play top artists 2.99-4.99..... ITunes for instance Rod Stewart Xmas album 3.99 and compilations 4.99-8.99.

 

I would like to see her go for volume and mid price especially with her promo slots.

 

Lets hope Kylie Xmas gets over 100k of sales.

 

Most people will be buying from other retailers anyway so they can buy multiple other items, being out of stock on her website will have little effect.

 

 

I agree. Just highlighting it is pretty poor and for buyers from overseas who don't have as easy access to kylie materials... 1 day maybe out of stock is ok.... but 4 days? maybe they don't want to order anymore in with Xmas next Friday and end of campaign for 2015....

Edited December 14, 201510 yr by SmileyKylie