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OPINION POLLS 2018-2022

Doctor Blind
in News and Politics

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New round of polls shows minor movements across the board, Conservatives basically holding steady, Labour gaining 1-3 points depending on pollster, at the expense of LD/Brexit. Would prefer Labour gaining more but acceptable start to the campaign.

Re Iz when the Tories win in Scotland its bc they're the only right wing party running and FPTP gives a 26% rightwing vote concentrated into one party veto power and victory over 25-24-20-5 centre and left votes from the other parties.

BXP seem to be collapsing in all of the polls despite pushing ahead with planning to run a candidate in every seat. Seems like they might not be much of a factor after all (and certainly hard to imagine they'll get any MPs elected as things stand, so Farage's record of representation in parliament will remain at 2, both via defections). The best hope left for this not to be a Tory majority then is probably just the anti Tory voters really committing to nailing tactical voting. I still don't hold out much hope.

 

Worth noting that we have the first MRP poll of the election (that is the experimental method YouGov used which was predicting a hung parliament well in advance last time around and everyone laughed it off for such outlandish predictions like Labour winning Canterbury) and it has the Tories on 347 seats, not as large a majority as some of the fantasy 'seat projections' based on the polls but a majority nonetheless. With the caveat that this far out from the election last time they had pretty similar numbers so there's still time for that to change dramatically depending on how the campaign goes.

One member of the Farage fan club has posted a contender for the weirdest attempt to demonstrate support with his video of a party stall. It shows a few people milling around without really giving much clue whether they are supporters or not. Regardless of their allegiance, they are clearly too young to get a vote in the election. If the next parliament lasts five years and the voting age is reduced to 16, some of them might get a vote at the next election.

I feel the BXP vote will depend on Nigel's campaigning. Papers are covering how he's giving Boris a second chance at a pact to wipe out labour. Hopefully Nigel will get a lot of coverage (can't believe I'm saying this) and he will be able to convince people Boris' deal is complete crap (which it is).

 

I've also been reading around and this election is likely going to see the most tactical voting perhaps ever?

 

I really hope many of the Tory marginals will be taken by Lib Dems/Labour and that any Labour marginals will hold on or increase in vote share.

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Here's the latest YouGov:

(7-8 Nov, changes from 5-6 Nov)

 

CON: 39% (+3)

LAB: 26% (+1)

LD: 17% (-)

BXP: 10% (-1)

SNP: 4% (-)

GRN: 4% (-1)

 

Main trend so far is to see a consolidation/extension of the lead that the Conservatives have - which would suggest a comfortable (though narrow) majority at present. Still 5 weeks to go however of course..

 

Note - the below graph shows the BXP vote almost mirroring that of the Tories showing that contrary to what Nigel Farage is saying much of the BXP support is to/from the Tories.

 

 

 

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Mate I don’t trust the electorate when it comes to voting for a winner on a reality tv show nevermind something more serious. As you prove daily, there’s a lot of people out there who are holding extreme views that can’t back them up with why they believe those things and and grounding in facts to support them; or understand the impact that their ideology has on others
Mate I don’t trust the electorate when it comes to voting for a winner on a reality tv show nevermind something more serious. As you prove daily, there’s a lot of people out there who are holding extreme views that can’t back them up with why they believe those things and and grounding in facts to support them; or understand the impact that their ideology has on others

 

If you don't trust the electorate, or the politicians, then who *would* you trust to run the country? :unsure:

 

BTW, what 'extreme views' do you claim I hold? :unsure: To me, 'extreme' means that only 1-2% of people subscribe to those views, e.g. groups like BNP, Britain First, etc. It therefore surely can't be on Brexit, as extreme is the opposite of mainstream, so 50%+ cannot by definition be 'extreme'.

 

If you don't trust the electorate, or the politicians, then who *would* you trust to run the country? :unsure:

 

BTW, what 'extreme views' do you claim I hold? :unsure: To me, 'extreme' means that only 1-2% of people subscribe to those views, e.g. groups like BNP, Britain First, etc. It therefore surely can't be on Brexit, as extreme is the opposite of mainstream, so 50%+ cannot by definition be 'extreme'.

 

So something is only bad if only a small amount of people think or believe it?

 

So something is only bad if only a small amount of people think or believe it?

 

You want me to say yes, don't you?

You want me to say yes, don't you?

 

No, I want you to clarify. Just because a large group of people hold a view of opinion doesn't mean its not extreme or unreasonable, but thats how your post reads.

 

 

No, I want you to clarify. Just because a large group of people hold a view of opinion doesn't mean its not extreme or unreasonable, but thats how your post reads.

 

OK then, my answer is yes, with the proviso that their views should be judged in the context of when their opinions were formed, rather than the present day.

Edited by vidcapper

Okay then. Aaand the views are still extreme.

 

Any specific views in mind?

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