I think a Labour disaster rather than just a mediocre performance will be the real surprise of the night. Their voters have almost definitely not turned out as they did in 2014. Tory voters on the other hand may have done, but of course a large portion will have gone off to the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems - their disaster has already been anticipated.

 

Yeah I think they're going to perform pretty terribly. There is loads of PR coming out at the moment from Labour, which makes me think know they will finish 3rd, perhaps even 4th, which is shocking really. I think in total if you add Lib Dems, Greens and SNP together you'll get more seats than the Tories + Brexit Party.

 

Labour are pretty much finished in terms of being able to gain a majority imo unless they come out and support a 2nd referendum. I think the results will show us there is a large percentage of Labour voters who won't vote for them until they back a 2nd Referendum. What I can't understand is if they did manage to almost win a General Election, surely they would need Lib Dem/Green support. And you would suspect any deal would probably indicate there must be another referendum. Honestly I do worry about the strategies of some of these people.

Would agree with all of that! ^

 

Think another thing the results could suggest to us is that BXP and to a lesser extent Brexit as a whole has become a lot more middle class-friendly since 2016 and UKIP's 2014 win. It's not necessarily promising that posh shire districts which had a roughly equal Remain-Leave split like Chiltern have seen an increased turnout whereas working class, Brexit-voting areas like Wigan have switched to apathy rather than FPBE-style Remain.

Edited May 26, 20196 yr by Harve

Surely you have to divide Labours seats/vote up between Brexit and remain though and not just say Tory & Brexit Party will be beaten by lib Dems and Greens?

Surely you have to divide Labours seats/vote up between Brexit and remain though and not just say Tory & Brexit Party will be beaten by lib Dems and Greens?

 

But right now they are a Brexit supporting party. The general rhetoric from the 2017 election was 80% of people voted for Brexit supporting parties. This is turn has been used by the right of the Conservative Party to justify a Brexit in fantasy land and has what has truly split the country up. You can't call Labour a Remain Party right now as their stance is not clear from the Leadership. I think a lot of Labour voters remember this and won't use their vote to be justified as going for a No Deal Brexit.

 

To think all this mess could have been avoided if May went for a Soft Brexit in the first place.

I’m hoping the SNP will win 3. I’m not sure why all the pollsters seem to be projecting 2 as all the full polls in Scotland have showed us on 3 seats and one showed us possibly getting 4!! Unless they’re basing it off subsamples of UK polls. Think the result up here will be 3 SNP, 1 Brexit, 1 Lib Dem with the last seat being Green or Labour. For the whole UK I’m hoping the Brexit party will underperform (the reports of low turnout in leave areas and higher turnout in remain areas is giving me hope for this), Lib Dems come second, the Greens to do well and also Plaid Cymru to beat labour in Wales, but I’m not 100% sure about that.

I was reading a i newspaper article a few days ago that said not only that populist parties were forecast to do well across Europe (which i knew) but also liberal parties were having a revival across Europe (which i didn't know about), so it just goes to show that the UK really fits in with the rest of Europe in terms of electorical trends, with the Lib Dems forecast to do well.

Edited May 26, 20196 yr by TheSnake

The Greens gaining *.*

The Greens in Germany are predicted to do so well they broke the vote trend graph on ARD! Initial estimates from polling says that a third of under 30’s in Germany backed the Greens. Their turnout was up 4% vs last elections at the halfway point of the day

Britain Elects' predictions are below. Greens' predicted seats are below what some may have expected, but the rest of the seat are in line with what was expected.

 

 

@1132707971669086212

Brexit Party as Continuity UKIP making zero net gains is acutally not as bad as I feared it could be.

The Greens have done SO well across the continent, proud <3

Hoping they have also done well in the UK as they were very borderline for getting the final seat in lots of regions (West Midlands, SW, Yorkshire, East, Scotland). If they get somewhere like East Midlands then they've absolutely smashed it but that would be beyond my wildest expectations.

Well, I have a pretty good idea what happened in Brighton & Hove. However, it would be illegal for me to tell you anything.

Britain Elects' predictions are below. Greens' predicted seats are below what some may have expected, but the rest of the seat are in line with what was expected.

@1132707971669086212

 

Yeah if that poll is correct it basically shows that the lost seats have esentially gone to Remain. Shows Labour doing better than I thought they would too, but I guess for some of the final seats it's going to be really close.

Yeah if that poll is correct it basically shows that the lost seats have esentially gone to Remain. Shows Labour doing better than I thought they would too, but I guess for some of the final seats it's going to be really close.

Exactly. It doesn't matter whether you count Labour as in, out or shake it all about, the big winners would be Remain parties.

Exactly. It doesn't matter whether you count Labour as in, out or shake it all about, the big winners would be Remain parties.

 

Even bigger if Labour actually backed a 2nd Referendum. Seen some stuff on Twitter that the People's Vote campaign (obviously with the support of Tom Watson probably) are going to go hard on Corbyn over the next few weeks in hope of him either resigning or backing a People's Vote.

 

I'm sure it will be spun though as barely anybody turned up to vote as we all want to leave the EU. Be interesting to see the Vote Split too as it may effect the Tory Leadership. There's definitely no majority for HOC for a No Deal Brexit and there probably isn't one in the General Public too. Which makes you wonder if they do go through with it somehow, it's going to cost them running the country for 20 years.

It appears I've wasted a day. According to the BBC introduction, the Lib Dems weren't taking part in this election.

Tory representative on the BBC - no idea who she is. That means they expect to do very badly indeed,

 

Lib Dem representative - there doesn't appear to be one. WTF is going on? The party that looks like coming second isn't invite on to the programme.

BXP party.... probably not as disappointing as some were hoping. Even if you account for Leave-voting areas having a lower turnout, it looks like they could get around their highest poll projections...

Tory representative on the BBC - no idea who she is. That means they expect to do very badly indeed,

 

Lib Dem representative - there doesn't appear to be one. WTF is going on? The party that looks like coming second isn't invite on to the programme.

 

No Brexit Party representative either - just Suzanne Evans, who was ex-MEP for Ukip, but didn't stand for the Brexit Party.

 

Let's see if they'll have Lib Dem or Brexit Party people (who will likely be the 2 biggest parties at the end of the night) in the studio when they change the in-studio guests in a few hours.