From what I've been reading, Texas could very well go to the dems. Kamala is going to be campaigning there on Friday. If Biden gets Texas, I can't see anything but a landslide win for him.

According to 538, a Trump win in Texas is still 62% likely with a Biden win 38%. Updated 8 minutes ago.

According to 538, a Trump win in Texas is still 62% likely with a Biden win 38%. Updated 8 minutes ago.

 

Coincidentally, it's almost the reverse in Florida.

 

And Biden doesn't need Florida.

That fact that Texas is close is a bad sign, if Biden loses and I expect he will a 2 point margin could be enough to win a senate seat there or at least is indicative of a big national swing away from Trump. Texas in particular is very interesting as it’s turnout is almost 100% of 2016 already and is as high in the counties Beto won big in 2018 when he lost by 2.5 points.

I think if Biden takes Florida then it's virtually over for Trump. Very hard for him to win without it. He really needs Florida to be in with a chance still. Without it he'd need 3 or 4 key states where Biden's way ahead in the polls.

 

I wish I was as confident as our old friend here Vidcapper. He's adamant all the polls are wrong, or the wrong way round and Trump will win. I can't see it at all. They were fairly accurate in 2018.

Edited October 26, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

I think if Biden takes Florida then it's virtually over for Trump. Very hard for him to win without it. He really needs Florida to be in with a chance still. Without it he'd need 3 or 4 key states where Biden's way ahead in the polls.

 

I wish I was as confident as our old friend here Vidcapper. He's adamant all the polls are wrong, or the wrong way round and Trump will win. I can't see it at all. They were fairly accurate in 2018.

 

Which is just mad. Biden has this as long Trump doesn't go dictator and declare all the postal votes a fraud.

 

When you've got the likes of Putin not going for personal digs against Biden you know something is up and sitting on the fence, you know things are finely balanced.

I think if Biden takes Florida then it's virtually over for Trump. Very hard for him to win without it. He really needs Florida to be in with a chance still. Without it he'd need 3 or 4 key states where Biden's way ahead in the polls.

 

I wish I was as confident as our old friend here Vidcapper. He's adamant all the polls are wrong, or the wrong way round and Trump will win. I can't see it at all. They were fairly accurate in 2018.

 

It's been repeated over and over again - polling companies do *more* than just political polls, bad predictions harm their business in general!

 

how the tables turn

how the tables turn

 

 

Well at least he's keeping my spirits up over on Facebook and telling me not to worry as they're all fake polls from the Democrats.

 

I'll be very surprised if Trump wins but overjoyed too. Am not getting any champagne in advance though.

Christ the idea of someone celebrating a Trump win - hooray for racist biggots

Christ the idea of someone celebrating a Trump win - hooray for racist biggots

 

 

Ever heard of people having different opinions? It isn't the law or I believe a rule here that we all must hate Trump or Boris or Brexit. :)

Ever heard of people having different opinions? It isn't the law or I believe a rule here that we all must hate Trump or Boris or Brexit. :)

 

And?

 

Doesn't make him, or his supporters any less racist, right wing or bigoted

Ever heard of people having different opinions? It isn't the law or I believe a rule here that we all must hate Trump or Boris or Brexit. :)

That doesn't change the fact that Trump is a massive liar and a racist. Perhaps you would like to try defending the way he encourages his supporters to call for the Bidens, Hillary Clinton and a governor who was the intended victim of a foiled kidnapping plot to be locked up.

Well at least he's keeping my spirits up over on Facebook and telling me not to worry as they're all fake polls from the Democrats.

 

I'll be very surprised if Trump wins but overjoyed too. Am not getting any champagne in advance though.

Why would the polling companies choose to trash their reputation by deliberately publishing fake polls?

This really gets funnier each time. If anything publishing fake polls with Biden in the lead is to Repups’ advantage and that’s EXACTLY what they would do to be all ‘look at how we have managed to defy the odds!!1!’ in the end.

 

I have no clue how one can deny that being a loud Trump supporter doesn’t make you a bigot. He is ignorance and bigotry personified and racism + personal attacks + heinous lies are by far his biggest selling points.

Well at least he's keeping my spirits up over on Facebook and telling me not to worry as they're all fake polls from the Democrats.

 

I'll be very surprised if Trump wins but overjoyed too. Am not getting any champagne in advance though.

Well, tell him from Iz that it’s been repeated over and over again - polling companies do *more* than just political polls, bad predictions harm their business in general!

That fact that Texas is close is a bad sign, if Biden loses and I expect he will a 2 point margin could be enough to win a senate seat there or at least is indicative of a big national swing away from Trump. Texas in particular is very interesting as it’s turnout is almost 100% of 2016 already and is as high in the counties Beto won big in 2018 when he lost by 2.5 points.

 

The Texas Senate race this year is looking much less competitive than in 2018 though, Cornyn isn't as unpopular as Cruz. He probably isn't losing even if the miracle happens and Biden wins Texas in the presidential vote. It definitely spells possible doom for Cruz next time he is up for re-election though.

 

May have been a better chance if Beto just ran for Senate again instead of chasing the pipe dream of the presidency and somewhat spoiling his reputation in the process.

 

Democrats do apparently have a good shot at flipping Texas' state legislature though which would be a big win as it gives them more power over redistricting following the 2020 census.

Losing Texas would be a massive blow for the Republican party in general, the way trends have been going there they would have a difficult time regaining the state again in future elections. I don't think Biden will win Texas this time (the oil transitioning comment wouldn't have helped him there) but it will be close there. I am now thinking Trump is likely to lose one of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as the polls don't seem to be narrowing much. Arizona looks most likely of the three to be won by Biden.

 

He is ignorance and bigotry personified and racism + personal attacks + heinous lies are by far his biggest selling points.

 

Although much of what he says isn't true, Trump is a better speaker than Biden and has more energy and also, for good or bad, personality to him than Biden I think, he is good at engaging the crowd at his rallies. If Biden wasn't so 'boring', he'd be even further ahead in the polls I think.

 

If any of the Rust Belt states are in danger it'll be Pennsylvania (especially as some are theorising Biden may have hurt himself there with his comments about transitioning away from oil at the last debate - I really don't think that's going to move the needle much though).

 

Biden is from Pennsylvania though so that will boost him there. I think energy related matters are a bit of a Bidens weakness at the moment, the oil comment won't help Biden, nor will the fracking comments, in some of those swing states.

Edited October 26, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

Losing Texas would be a massive blow for the Republican party in general,

 

 

Yes it would be a huge blow. Probably the story of the election.

If I was American I would honestly not vote... I’d refuse to just vote for who is the least racist and rapey. Doesn’t anybody else remember Biden’s “you ain’t black” moment... Tara Reade...

If I was American I would honestly not vote... I’d refuse to just vote for who is the least racist and rapey. Doesn’t anybody else remember Biden’s “you ain’t black” moment... Tara Reade...

 

so you would just let the country rot in the hands of current leader who is racist, bigot, homophobic, you name it and you would decide not fighting and vote to get him out?!!!