July 21, 2024Jul 21 Not so much a set up, nobody in politics thinks that far ahead - but likely served its purpose as an early warning system in case of this exact situation. Before 3 weeks ago every Democrat was fully expecting and hoping for a reelection campaign and nomination. I reckon this puts the race firmly with a Democratic advantage, remember they have the advantage in popular vote and Trump's known quantity as a candidate continues to play against him the more he shows up, the main reason we were worried about Biden was he appeared far more senile and out of it than Trump, 'only candidates who could lose to each other etc'. Very likely it's Harris, I've been impressed with what she's been putting out and keeping message discipline tight, on debates I really don't know how Trump can come at her, and I don't feel that Biden's disapproval ratings really carry over to her, she's got a whole different feel about her as a candidate, energetic compared to Biden's phlegmatism. And if it's not, Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro all look like strong photogenic candidates who can now get a chance to shine - though an open convention would be something to avoid. It could do. All I’d say is as simplistic as this is demographically it does nothing for the Dems. Kamala strongest base would be black women you’d imagine and they were already maxed out towards the democrat and liked Biden a lot. Biden gave off old school conservative vibes so a lot of white-collar type of Christian Americans could relate and happily vote for him and maybe it won’t be as easy for them to vote Kamala. It could be the Labour type route where Starmer was the perfect default anti-Tory candidate, fairly inoffensive and easy for anyone but a Tory to vote for. So she might have that appeal for the anyone but Trump people. Popular vote is heavily skewed by California so I wouldn’t say that matters much. Ultimately only 6-7 states matter really so we will have to see how Kamala fairs on those. Biden was perfect for states like Georgia really on a purely electoral basis. He definitely had to step down though.
July 21, 2024Jul 21 Good news in some aspects. A lot of US voters were quite apathetic due to choosing between two old white men. So Kamala could serve to swing those voters to someone younger if they play their cards right. They will need a solid VP pick for her to balance out against the obvious racism/misogyny she'll get - so a white man VP would likely be the best option. From my understanding Kamala was unpopular but her popularity has improved slightly. Her approval rating isn't much different from Trump though. I do think if they play their cards right the democrats could win with Kamala.
July 21, 2024Jul 21 It could do. All I’d say is as simplistic as this is demographically it does nothing for the Dems. Kamala strongest base would be black women you’d imagine and they were already maxed out towards the democrat and liked Biden a lot. Biden gave off old school conservative vibes so a lot of white-collar type of Christian Americans could relate and happily vote for him and maybe it won’t be as easy for them to vote Kamala. It could be the Labour type route where Starmer was the perfect default anti-Tory candidate, fairly inoffensive and easy for anyone but a Tory to vote for. So she might have that appeal for the anyone but Trump people. Popular vote is heavily skewed by California so I wouldn’t say that matters much. Ultimately only 6-7 states matter really so we will have to see how Kamala fairs on those. Biden was perfect for states like Georgia really on a purely electoral basis. He definitely had to step down though. The energy this gives to the Dem campaign should be a boost for them all around really, you could tell that even with people ready to vote against Trump that Biden talking about what he'd done wasn't going to play well. That's also how the popular vote helps, I'm not just talking about blue votes stacking up in California, actually California might see more rightward movement if still strongly Dem, but more that Dems have been often underestimated in polls the last few years due to undecideds breaking for them more than Trump and that the voting system obscures the fact that just more people in the country are happier voting Democrat and they outnumber Republicans everywhere makes it easier for those swing states to move towards them. A good VP pick should help Harris, almost certain she'll pick a white man - if she picks Josh Shapiro, then that could edge Pennsylvania over and I've just wargamed the states, and of course it still runs it close but in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada I get the instinct that changing Biden for Harris is neutral to positive for Dems, Shapiro pick could help PY, perhaps it is somewhat the other way in Wisconsin, NC and Georgia but those were the swing states I was thinking would be going Republican anyway. But then the race has only just begun again now, and the RNC just wasted ALL of their convention time tearing down Biden, hopefully this means some movement will be shown in a positive fashion from now.
July 21, 2024Jul 21 Trump has, of course, been typically graceless. The contrast between his remarks and Biden’s last weekend could hardly be more stark. A Harris candidacy will surely bring out the worst in the white supremacist misogynist. That will appeal to his MAGA base but may put off the crucial swing voters.
July 21, 2024Jul 21 Quite. Running against a brown woman especially if they have to debate will make it really hard for Trump to hide his racism and misogyny behind plausible deniability.
July 21, 2024Jul 21 to lighten up the mood a little bit, I am loving all these coconut tree memes :lol: @1815086053004308901
July 22, 2024Jul 22 He had to drop out really. His health is more important than losing an election to the worst president America has ever had. It would be such a disappointment now if Trump still wins....
July 22, 2024Jul 22 I read US political forums and the general view today is that Trump will win mainly because the US will still not elect a female President. Hillary failed and so will Kamala. The only way they'll get one is by one ascending from VP which is what I feel should happen now.
July 22, 2024Jul 22 If they get Michelle Obama in they can win. Yes a poll shows she's the only Dem, even though she's female, who could beat Trump, in a landslide. No experience but then Trump didn't have any either. Edited July 22, 2024Jul 22 by crazy chris
July 22, 2024Jul 22 @1815473074311225407 A good/strong sign that she is getting support! I believe this is all “small donations” (i.e $5-25 kinda donations - don’t quote me though, that’s what I heard on Tik Tok yday!!! Lol)
July 22, 2024Jul 22 I'm torn because as most of you know I'm a big Trump supporter but would love to see a female President before I die. Wish Joe would hand over now.
July 22, 2024Jul 22 Well it’s an interesting position. He’s too cognitively impaired to run again but he’s fine to remain president now? Really he should be stepping down
July 23, 2024Jul 23 I'm torn because as most of you know I'm a big Trump supporter but would love to see a female President before I die. Wish Joe would hand over now. I will like to see female Republican president (after Trump).
July 23, 2024Jul 23 As Sky News are saying, one thing about Kamala being the nominee is she's already been vetted, to become VP. Anyone else, including Michelle, needs strict vetting and that takes weeks. Even a minor motoring offence years ago puts an end to it. Tax avoidance, anything at all.
July 23, 2024Jul 23 Nikki Haley, AOC? Not blond enough for the sort of Republican woman president Last Dreamer is thinking of - his preferences coming from the same place as FOX News casting after all.
July 23, 2024Jul 23 As Sky News are saying, one thing about Kamala being the nominee is she's already been vetted, to become VP. Anyone else, including Michelle, needs strict vetting and that takes weeks. Even a minor motoring offence years ago puts an end to it. Tax avoidance, anything at all. Yeah this and she can pick up Biden's warchest and claim succession from his primary campaign, which stops this feeling anti-democratic - everyone knew she was on the ticket already.
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