One of THE popstars of the moment - Sabrina Carpenter - releases her new album 'Short n' Sweet' August 23rd 2024. Featuring the mega UK #1 smashes 'Espresso' & 'Please, Please, Please', how do we think this album will perform on release?

 

Is she a people are only interested on a song by song basis kinda gal or will her huge singles success translate into big album sales?

 

Some things to consider:

 

- Currently holds the top 2 positions in the UK singles chart with the aforementioned releases.

- Both those singles are huge (likely to be multiple week) number 1 smash hits.

- It looks like she is the biggest release that week. Her main competition will likely be Fontaines DC or Taylor (who performs her last UK show of the ERAs tour during that week - 20th August)

 

Sabrina is also playing the multi format game too with this album. Plenty of variants and choices for fans to choose from! (Various coloured vinyl, cassette, CD's etc..) so the odds will definitely be in her favour.

 

But does she have enough steam to get a 100k+ opening? (in this day & age, it's incredibly hard!)

I think a peak and debut at #1 is on the cards for her.

 

In terms of sales... I'm struggling to gauge just how much interest there is in an album for her... like there's some demand, obviously, but is it one of those where only 30k will buy the album opening week (lol - "only" still huge obviously, but her success atm would suggest a far bigger number) and we overestimate her popularity somewhat, or do we think she can go all the way and get at least double that? Hmmm...

 

For some reason, I'm getting Olivia Rodrigo kinda big vibes from this era for her. I'm thinking it could debut with a bit higher than 'GUTS' did (which did 60k) so maybe... about 65k-70k?

 

It's going to be an interesting one.

Will obviously go in at #1.

 

I get the impression given her recent singles performance this could have a similar result to Olivia Rodrigo's Sour, which just made it over the 50k line. Assuming the streaming numbers boom continues to give her a bit of an extra boost, i've gone for the 50k-75k bracket but assuming it will be on the lower end of that.

 

Not that that wouldn't still be an impressive result in today's album climate.

Didn't realise this was out the same week as Fontaines D.C. - I reckon they'll improve a good amount on the opening sales of their previous album (20k) considering they are now on a major (ish) label and have been making some singles chart appearances for the first time but would probably expect this to block them from getting another #1 </3

 

I'm sure this will do pretty big streaming numbers but not so sure if she'll be able to shift enough physicals to really push close to the 6 figure range, hard to tell though considering how much bigger of a name she is now than when she dropped her last album. I'll say 50-75k x

I totally missed that she was releasing an album

I still don't understand her success or appeal but it will be very interesting from a chart perspective

to see if her success in singles translates into high physical sales

I find it very difficult to predict

Think 50k+ and #1 should be a given but you couldnt rule out Sabrina getting near 100k

I think it will debut and peak at #1 with opening sales between 75-100k. She should have good streaming and a solid fanbase on her side.

i expect with how big shes gotten recently itll be big for her, i think the best comparison would be to olivia rodrigo's albums - so around 60k so i voted for 50-75k

Anything <50k is possible - beyond that she would need huge pure sales which would mean very devoted fanbase. Billie opened with 67k selling over 35k.

I'm thinking an easy 60k at least, especially if she releases a third big song by the time it's out. And of course #1 unless a heavyweight releases a new album against her.

Definitely a 50k+

 

Streaming will be big - obviously she holds the current #1 and #2 and Feather has re-entered and she has another track in the Top 100 starred out due to the 4 song rule.

 

Her last album is in the Top 50 and reached a new peak last week too.

 

There’s not an obscene amount of formats yet but I think there more to come along with signed variants

 

Blue Vinyl

Dark Blue Vinyl (Amazon Exclusive)

Pink Vinyl (With Poster)

Picture Disc Vinyl

CD

Cassette

I mean obviously the two singles have done incredibly well and I've little doubt this will enter at #1, but I'm not convinced she'll open with 50k+. I don't think she's quite there yet. Maybe I'll be proved wrong but we'll see.

Edited June 23, 20241 yr by Mangø

I think she'll do 50k just barely

 

She does have hype on her side which is great but not that stable of a fanbase, but that can change in a few months especially with the promo she could fit in + how many people will become part of said fanbase in that amount of time. She's completely fine when it comes to streaming.

I reckon 75-100K if Gracie Abrahams who has had no hit, barely any back catalogue is hitting #1 with 30K sales I’m sure Sabrina has at least 3x the fans, back catalogue and hits? 2024 has been her year.

Edited June 26, 20241 yr by BellyClarkson

Gracie was at 16k on Monday, I don't think she'll do 30k? 23-25k max

Early predictions in the US are 290k-310k!

 

But what about the UK.

 

Lets get some last min predictions in before the first lot of mids on Monday :o

LOL at all the spurious bands in the first two, though apparently someone did think it would miss the Top 100.

 

I went for 50-75k given where the early streaming is.

60k.

I reckon number 1 between 49k and 50k

I think #1, although I'm surprised so many think over 50,000? If she manages it then great for her, but that's a LOT for these days.