July 4, 2024Jul 4 Author Reform didn't stand in many areas of the locals though, so that has to be taken into account. But where they did they almost universally didn't do well at all. They were on to nothing before Farage came in 6 weeks ago, well, maybe not quite nothing as it's a general but they'd have been the remnants of 2015's UKIP and nothing more.
July 4, 2024Jul 4 There was a reform dip for the last two weeks thanks to a variety of incidents although they did seem kind of orchestrated in hindsight without that they could have really got a good 5% more and you never know what that could have translated to in seats. Not really sure what they offer except a major protest vote because immigration aside they don’t really have anything substantial to offer. Their financial plans are very Liz Truss like
July 4, 2024Jul 4 Rees-Mogg is insufferable. It feels like his accent is put on. I can't imagine he would sound as posh as he does if he was in an angry mood.
July 4, 2024Jul 4 Just did a check on Google and Labour won the Sunderland seat by a margin of 2k votes in 2019, yet wins by a margin of 7k this election. That's one positive spin. :lol:
July 4, 2024Jul 4 So that's another constituency where Reform are second. I don't know yet how terrified I should be.
July 4, 2024Jul 4 Another one with Reform second, looks like Reform is absolutely decimating the Tory vote in these north east seats. Edited July 4, 2024Jul 4 by DoBelieveTheHype
July 4, 2024Jul 4 The turnout was 53%. Pretty disappointing considering the widespread chaos the Tories have created.
July 4, 2024Jul 4 Reform will be rubbing their hands together being 2nd in both seats though their candidate didn't look too impressed with his figure
July 4, 2024Jul 4 I repeat it’s not a HUGE surprise for Reform to take 2nd place in a Labour leaning seat, it will be a pro Brexit area but they are still 6-10k behind Labour which means no seat for them!
July 4, 2024Jul 4 The turnout was 53%. Pretty disappointing considering the widespread chaos the Tories have created. 51% in the one before I think so pretty low. Think it’ll be higher away from the north east though
July 4, 2024Jul 4 :puke: at Reform being 2nd again. At least that's another clear win for Labour. And as I said John Curtice confirms the reform vote here is lower than the national polls!
July 4, 2024Jul 4 The Exit poll has 'Other' candidates winning 5 seats in Great Britain. One is the speaker, and then you have Corbyn and Galloway as obvious ones. Unsure who the other two could be. Is whatever you're looking at lumping Plaid Cymru in with 'other'? The numbers shown on the BBC website have 19 'other' which is 18 Northern Ireland seats + the Speaker. The numbers from the two seats declared so far are both broadly in line with the YouGov MRP projections (they very slightly overestimated Labour and underestimated Reform, which is in line with their overall seat projections being a bit out in the same direction for both than the exit poll). Would have been a surprise to see Reform not comfortably beating the Tories in both. (which does make me struggle to see how Reform are supposed to get to 13 seats, would have expected to see them overperforming a lot more than this if that were the case... small sample size though I guess and early days obvz) anyway I need to go to bed xx
July 4, 2024Jul 4 can anyone shed some light on why the expectation was a slightly lower turn out in these particular constituencies?
July 4, 2024Jul 4 I assume the lower turnout is also less conservative voters bothering to vote. Hoping the reform vote will hold in conservative areas and help Labour/Lib Dems get some big gains. Edited July 4, 2024Jul 4 by Envoirment
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