Just now, gasman449 said:

Survive also won't make it

Ah of course - both would have been #1 without ACR as well.

18 minutes ago, gasman449 said:

Is Dakota doing that badly? Would've guessed Cruel Summer would be out before it.

I have “Dakota” doing about 8k per week, so if it drops out it could come back once it leapfrogs “Cruel Sunmer” and “Burning Down”. I’m guessing those two have 1 more week above “Dakota” but could be wrong.

Here are my estimates for all-time figures, but I haven’t rounded them all in the same way.

1 Shape Of You 6,756,000 (max)

2 Mr Brightside 6,747,500

3 Last Christmas 6,361,000

4 Do They Know It’s Christmas 6,347,000 (max)

5 Someone You Loved 6,318,000

6 Perfect 6,000,000

7 All I Want For Christmas Is You 5,686,000

So I am pretty sure that ‘Last Christmas’ is now ahead of ‘Do They Know It’s Christmas?’.

If Shape Of You has stayed steady, Mr Brightside will overtake it next week. If Shape Of You has been in decline, then Mr Brightside may have already overtaken it. But Shape Of You might have increased, as it spent one week in the streaming chart this year compared with none last year.

Any thoughts?

I think two more weeks before the Killers pass to be on the safe side

I’ve just done a quick attempt to calculate projected sales up to and including Christmas Day.

Mr Brightside 6,774,000

Last Christmas 6,773,000

That’s ridiculously close!

If that’s right, then theoretically ‘Last Christmas’ will overtake on Boxing Day!

However - an underestimate of Christmas Day streaming could cost ‘Last Christmas’ the title of biggest selling single of all time!

I challenge you all to attempt an estimate too. Especially @Matt63 @Julian_

I’ve taken into consideration a small weekly decline for The Killers; fewer December days this week; and a 17.5% decline year on year for ‘Last Christmas’. To see how close I am, I’ve projected next week’s sales for Wham! to be 65,500 SCR/33,000 ACR.

27 minutes ago, GreyAsh said:

I’ve just done a quick attempt to calculate projected sales up to and including Christmas Day.

Mr Brightside 6,774,000

Last Christmas 6,773,000

That’s ridiculously close!

If that’s right, then theoretically ‘Last Christmas’ will overtake on Boxing Day!

However - an underestimate of Christmas Day streaming could cost ‘Last Christmas’ the title of biggest selling single of all time!

I challenge you all to attempt an estimate too. Especially @Matt63 @Julian_

I’ve taken into consideration a small weekly decline for The Killers; fewer December days this week; and a 17.5% decline year on year for ‘Last Christmas’. To see how close I am, I’ve projected next week’s sales for Wham! to be 65,500 SCR/33,000 ACR.

Haha interesting. I think December 1 will really be the acid test regarding whether “Last Christmas” will continue to underperform relative to previous years.

Of course “Last Christmas” will have pretty high numbers on Boxing Day so should be well ahead of “Mr Brightside” in the mids going towards the New Year chart, though “Mr Brightside” will start to come back over Twixmas and then get a big boost on New Year’s Eve / Day.

17 minutes ago, Julian_ said:

Haha interesting. I think December 1 will really be the acid test regarding whether “Last Christmas” will continue to underperform relative to previous years.

I think December 2 will be a better test.

December 1 is always a really big day for streaming but you can’t compare it either with Sunday December 1 or Monday December 2 from last year.

For the OCC's official end of year chart, are the estimated Thursday streams used or the actual streams (assuming they are eventually reported)?

9 minutes ago, Johann said:

For the OCC's official end of year chart, are the estimated Thursday streams used or the actual streams (assuming they are eventually reported)?

Estimated - there’s never any retrospective correction

1 hour ago, Julian_ said:

Estimated - there’s never any retrospective correction

Is there any chance that the OCC won’t announce the chart on Boxing Day and therefore will calculate accurately?

As and when Last Christmas goes 9x platinum, that will indicate a total of 6.82M chart sales all time.

Presumably the BPI certifications are based on actual figures rather than weekly chart estimates?

Also no. The actual Thursday streams are never counted. The estimated figures are used for everything

On 29/11/2025 at 18:44, GreyAsh said:

Is there any chance that the OCC won’t announce the chart on Boxing Day and therefore will calculate accurately?

Next to no chance

Golden should climb to 4 on the YTD chart before the end of the year. Best track of the year IMO

2 minutes ago, adrianreavill83 said:

Golden should climb to 4 on the YTD chart before the end of the year. Best track of the year IMO

Think it will be pretty close. Assuming it keeps its current weekly sales for the rest of the year it will finish around 5k ahead of APT.

APT will get a boost from Spotify Wrapped this week. Golden will too but would expect APT to benefit more as it’s not as big at the moment

On 28/11/2025 at 21:02, jimwatts said:

Is 'The Subway' the year's only #1 that looks like it won't make it?

Sad really, the best #1 of the year in my opinion.

Week 48:

1	1	Alex Warren	Ordinary	2,041,000
2	2	Lola Young	Messy	1,387,000	1,560,000
3	3	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	1,333,000	1,780,000
4	4	Rosé and Bruno Mars	APT.	1,285,000	1,640,000
5	5	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	1,169,000
6	6	Gracie Abrams	That's So True	1,127,000	1,560,000
7	7	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	1,087,000	2,870,000
8	8	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	1,067,000	1,080,000
9	9	Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars	Die With A Smile	1,055,000	1,690,000
10	10	Chrystal	The Days	961,000	1,130,000
11	11	Billie Eilish	Birds Of A Feather	960,000	2,180,000
12	12	Chappell Roan	Good Luck, Babe!	934,000	2,140,000
13	13	Teddy Swims	Lose Control	919,000	2,750,000
14	14	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	893,000
15	16	Sombr	Back To Friends	838,000
16	15	Sabrina Carpenter	Espresso	829,000	2,580,000
17	17	Gigi Perez	Sailor Song	820,000	1,420,000
18	18	Sombr	Undressed	815,000
19	19	Sabrina Carpenter	Taste	806,000	1,600,000
20	20	Teddy Swims	Bad Dreams	805,000	1,040,000
21	21	Teddy Swims	The Door	786,000	1,450,000
22	22	Tate McRae	Sports Car	779,000
23	23	Myles Smith	Nice To Meet You	771,000	880,000
24	24	Myles Smith	Stargazing	757,000	1,770,000
25	25	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	746,000
26	26	Shaboozey	A Bar Song (Tipsy)	731,000	2,070,000
27	27	WizTheMc & Bees & Honey	Show Me Love	712,000
28	28	Alex Warren	Carry You Home	704,000	1,000,000
29	30	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	698,000	4,510,000
30	29	Hozier	Too Sweet	696,000	2,150,000
31	31	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	690,000	3,210,000
32	32	The Killers	Mr Brightside	683,000	6,750,000
33	34	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	681,000
34	33	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	667,000	3,890,000
35	35	Ed Sheeran	Azizam	656,000
36	36	Saja Boys, Andrew Choi Neckwav, Danny Chung, Kevin Woo, samUIL Lee & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Soda Pop	643,000
37	37	Disco Lines & Tinashe	No Broke Boys	639,000
38	38	MK featuring Chrystal	Dior	620,000
39	39	Sonny Fodera, Jazzy & D.O.D.	Somedays	615,000	1,090,000
40	40	Calvin Harris And Clementine Douglas	Blessings	604,000	590,000
44	45	Sam Fender & Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	581,000
45	55	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	571,000
46	47	Saja Boys, Andrew Choi Neckwav, Danny Chung, Kevin Woo, samUIL Lee & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Your Idol	567,000	1,080,000
58	61	Ed Sheeran	Sapphire	520,000
74	78	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	How It's Done	475,000
82	-	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	452,000
84	85	Fred Again…, Skepta and PlaqueBoyMax	Victory Lap	448,000
88	94	Sombr	12 To 12	442,000
97	-	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	What It Sounds Like	422,000
-	99	Stereophonics	Dakota	418,000	2,720,000
-	100	Adam Porte and Stryv featuring Malachiii	Move	413,000	880,000

WISL finally entering 🙌🙌🙌 hopefully its done enough and doesnt get knocked out

"Ordinary" will end up doing 2.1 million by year's end.