Friday at 19:441 day 58 minutes ago, Rooney said:I think Steve's point is that the polls are accurate - Reform have a strong core vote made up of UKIPers, ex Tories, ex Labour and people using them as the Change/Protest vote.No other Party has that level of support, but what the polls don't take in to consideration is that the Left/Centre and probably some of the moderate Tory voters will switch to any other Party to stop Reform winning.I watched Newsnight last night and PC have ambitions to win the Senate, but they were quite pragmatic that they may have to work with Labour. Probably key for now if Reform keep up this vote share/momentum, it will be more of a case of people voting tactically to keep out Reform. Take me for example, I am quite left-wing socially ,but econonomically way more right wing than a lot of people on here, but I'll vote anyone who has the best chance of beating Reform.Yeh I read the Guardian article wrong at lunch (I was trying to work eat and read at the same time 😆) amended it now. Apologies @ElectroBoy Yeh Plaid will need support in an Seanad election because it’s a full PR system now in wales. Edited Friday at 19:451 day by Steve201
Friday at 20:301 day The flag lads are just weird. All this bollocks about national pride but not when there's actually something to be proud of.
Friday at 23:551 day 5 hours ago, Rooney said:I think Steve's point is that the polls are accurate - Reform have a strong core vote made up of UKIPers, ex Tories, ex Labour and people using them as the Change/Protest vote.No other Party has that level of support, but what the polls don't take in to consideration is that the Left/Centre and probably some of the moderate Tory voters will switch to any other Party to stop Reform winning.I watched Newsnight last night and PC have ambitions to win the Senate, but they were quite pragmatic that they may have to work with Labour. Probably key for now if Reform keep up this vote share/momentum, it will be more of a case of people voting tactically to keep out Reform. Take me for example, I am quite left-wing socially ,but econonomically way more right wing than a lot of people on here, but I'll vote anyone who has the best chance of beating Reform.I feel like we should chat more given this is about where I land too! (And incidentally why a Your Party that presented itself as the oppoisite would be my worst nightmare!)
19 hours ago19 hr Success of Plaid shows everyone is crying out for a proper left party, and it has to be Labour really. Corbyn came at a bad time, Brexshit battle and Blojo and Cummings. If he had come now,man alive he would have cleaned up!!
17 hours ago17 hr With Caerphilly being in many ways a suburb of Cardiff, I had assumed that it would not be fertile territory for Reform, with them likely to do better further up the valleys. But it actually had the 4th highest Brexit vote in Wales out of the 22 council areas so the Reform result is indeed a bit of an underperformance. There a parts of the UK where there could be majority or near-majority support for Reform, at which point the whole mess of tactical voting wouldn't be relevant. But perhaps that's not as widespread as I thought.
16 hours ago16 hr Yeah, I don't see this result as anything other than a disappointment for Reform, this is the sort of seat they should claim is part of their path to a Senedd victory, the polls had them winning here. If they're going to upend the political system and its conversation based on 6 votes in Runcorn, losing here should by all rights be a good way to start things moving the other way. Signs of a resistance against Reform anyhow and that the polls about them potentially winning everywhere are overstating things.Good inroads for Plaid, they can say they have a good claim to anywhere in Wales that isn't the north-east border off of this and makes it a lot easier to make the next Welsh election Plaid vs Reform, in which you can imagine many Welsh people will come down firmly on Plaid's side.
16 hours ago16 hr 3 hours ago, Big Fat Sue said:Success of Plaid shows everyone is crying out for a proper left party, and it has to be Labour really. Corbyn came at a bad time, Brexshit battle and Blojo and Cummings. If he had come now,man alive he would have cleaned up!!at least we have zack polanski
16 hours ago16 hr 3 hours ago, Big Fat Sue said:Success of Plaid shows everyone is crying out for a proper left party, and it has to be Labour really. Corbyn came at a bad time, Brexshit battle and Blojo and Cummings. If he had come now,man alive he would have cleaned up!!Does it? I think what it shows is people will be willing to vote anything to stop Reform.The problem we will have come a general election, is unless the Main parties swallow their pride and adopt pragmatism based on the polls, everyone will declare they are the victors against Reform leading to a 2019 disaster all over again.
16 hours ago16 hr 13 minutes ago, Rooney said:Does it? I think what it shows is people will be willing to vote anything to stop Reform.The problem we will have come a general election, is unless the Main parties swallow their pride and adopt pragmatism based on the polls, everyone will declare they are the victors against Reform leading to a 2019 disaster all over again.‘Willing to vote for anything to stop Reform’ really isn’t giving Plaid enough credit. The fact is they are the only party (possibly Greens but it’s early days) that actually care about the people of Wales. Some people get scared of the idea of a push for independence and some morons dislike us having our own language, but other parties have all but proven they don’t care for our country. My worry is that racism is very much a thing in Wales so the Reform threat is still very strong.
15 hours ago15 hr Yeah and the big question is if 'willing to vote for anything to stop Reform' goes as far as voting Labour which is the obvious button to press in large parts of the country with incumbent Labour MPs. With approval numbers where they are, there's a world in which it's simpler if the party is declared dead before 2029.
14 hours ago14 hr Reform lost a lot of support in the latter part of the campaign, after a poll showed them narrowly ahead of Plaid. That suggests that the main shift in those days was from Reform to Plaid. That, in turn, suggests that a lot of voters were planning to vote Reform to get Labour out before finding out that they could achieve the same objective without voting for a far-right party.
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