Predict away. As ever, 20 qualifiers per semi-final.

DanBet's office has burnt down so will be out of business this edition.

SEMI_ONE

AQ Danæviia :: Maruja – Look Down On Us

1 Cor Lupus :: Kyra Machida – Blonde

2 Lookylion :: Momo Boyd – American Love Song

3 Pagasa :: Cameron Winter – Nausicaä (Love Will Be Revealed)

4 Pestolia :: frutiger dillon – Windows98

5 FARC :: Banoffee – Muscles

6 N DNTN :: KNEECAP – THE RECAP (feat. Mozey)

7 Freidland :: Connie Talbot – Original

8 Herbilore :: Mia Wray – Only Love

9 A-Konohagakure :: CHANMINA – TEST ME

10 Ennea :: Paris Paloma – the warmth

11 Sandénia :: Shawn Mendes – Heavy

12 Terra Avium :: yeule – Veil Of Darkness

13 Hendinia :: Klavdia & ARCADE – Anemos

14 Mothertopia :: Kelly Lee Owens – Higher

15 Deandria :: Merina Gris – Mejor*

16 Lotunia :: Army Of Lovers – Love Is Blue (feat. Olya Polyakova)

17 Ben's Sanctuary :: Kai Tracid – 4 Just 1 Day

18 East Rukahavian :: The Hidden Cameras – Undertow

19 Kathaldazia :: Chesuqi – The Blue

20 Land of DW :: Csaknekedkislány – Minden Mozog

21 Jupiterdonia :: Ancient Umbra – Iron Will

22 Dalisska :: Storefront Church – The High Room

23 Kluminican Republic :: KAS:ST – Sound Of The Soul

24 Bøtanikkä :: LA NIÑA – FIGLIA D' 'A TEMPESTA

25 Neliönoir :: FAUST – Dies Irae

26 Flynnonda :: crushed – silene

27 Hushkanukia :: Valencia Grace – Lucky You're A Star

28 Juranabaijan :: Angie – Poco Poco

29 Aeroche :: KING BOOO! – Tunes Since '89

30 Ajanaeda :: Florence Road – Storm Warnings

31 Cumulonimbia :: umiña – spiral

32 Bronzil :: KÄSSY – i-i-i

SEMI_TWO

AQ Danæviia :: Maruja – Look Down On Us

1 République d'Áskorza :: Satine – C'Est Toi

2 Scotland 2 :: underscores – Do It

3 POPHub :: Le Manou – Fille À Papa

4 Zephyra Continuum :: Electrotête – I Love You (Cubic 22 Remix)

5 Skall :: Octo Octa – Spin Girl, Let's Activate!

6 Séyetana :: Myuk – yukiuta

7 Trifoski :: LustSickPuppy – RIDE IT

8 Sovarasma :: DAVID BORING – Jenny Rotten

9 Yehesi :: Suzane – Champagne

10 D'yermak'er :: TĀLĀ – Ghosts

11 Aelandor :: Pom Pom Squad – Villain

12 Baleghde :: BANKS – Contaminated

13 Greenfroze :: ZETAK – ARALARKO DAMA

14 Zanmatony :: Hot Chip – Devotion

15 Niceland :: Cephas Azariah & Elle Limebear – you're gonna be okay

16 FSR Rontvia :: DJ Suzy – White Rabbit

17 Ojnoj :: Déyyess – Lips Like Sugar

18 The Spodic Empire :: Wubble-U – Petal (English Rose Pruned)

19 Altyr Muunilinst :: RABO – Stuck In November

20 Taahino :: mi.a – Ophelia

21 Summericia :: Denis Dekay – Don't Leave

22 Lentyll :: Hiro Shinosawa – SUNFADED

23 Jadakissnia :: TRAITRS – The Lovely Wounded

24 Fljótavík :: Faouzia – DON'T EVER LEAVE ME

25 Cheiron :: First Aid Kit – Out Of My Head

26 New Lexico :: girlish figure – Please Her For Pleasure

27 Macromia :: Franc Moody – Bloodlines

28 Dobago :: Jamie Duffy – Solas

29 Harmonica :: Dan Black – Wonder

30 Elëdan :: Ö – Garden Extra wet

31 Persephonia :: Sr. Falla De Origen – SQFML

32 Thelonia :: LÖNA – I Never Wanna Be In Love

I genuinely don't know how to predict 12 DNQs

Brutal

I think a traffic light system is in order for such a stacked list. Take with a pinch of salt.

1 République d'Áskorza :: Satine – C'Est Toi

2 Scotland 2 :: underscores – Do It

3 POPHub :: Le Manou – Fille À Papa

4 Zephyra Continuum :: Electrotête – I Love You (Cubic 22 Remix)

5 Skall :: Octo Octa – Spin Girl, Let's Activate!

6 Séyetana :: Myuk – yukiuta

7 Trifoski :: LustSickPuppy – RIDE IT

8 Sovarasma :: DAVID BORING – Jenny Rotten

9 Yehesi :: Suzane – Champagne

10 D'yermak'er :: TĀLĀ – Ghosts

11 Aelandor :: Pom Pom Squad – Villain

12 Baleghde :: BANKS – Contaminated

13 Greenfroze :: ZETAK – ARALARKO DAMA

14 Zanmatony :: Hot Chip – Devotion

15 Niceland :: Cephas Azariah & Elle Limebear – you're gonna be okay

16 FSR Rontvia :: DJ Suzy – White Rabbit

17 Ojnoj :: Déyyess – Lips Like Sugar

18 The Spodic Empire :: Wubble-U – Petal (English Rose Pruned)

19 Altyr Muunilinst :: RABO – Stuck In November

20 Taahino :: mi.a – Ophelia

21 Summericia :: Denis Dekay – Don't Leave

22 Lentyll :: Hiro Shinosawa – SUNFADED

23 Jadakissnia :: TRAITRS – The Lovely Wounded

24 Fljótavík :: Faouzia – DON'T EVER LEAVE ME

25 Cheiron :: First Aid Kit – Out Of My Head

26 New Lexico :: girlish figure – Please Her For Pleasure

27 Macromia :: Franc Moody – Bloodlines

28 Dobago :: Jamie Duffy – Solas

29 Harmonica :: Dan Black – Wonder

30 Elëdan :: Ö – Garden Extra wet

31 Persephonia :: Sr. Falla De Origen – SQFML

32 Thelonia :: LÖNA – I Never Wanna Be In Love

i know it's not the case usually but greenfroze's song did really well elsewhere and i don't see how it would be different here so i'd say it's a safe q pour moi x (also cheiron's too and in many respects more catered to bjsc crowd too x)

2 minutes ago, uhsting said:

i know it's not the case usually but greenfroze's song did really well elsewhere and i don't see how it would be different here so i'd say it's a safe q pour moi x (also cheiron's too and in many respects more catered to bjsc crowd too x)

I just put mine in orange because it's difficult to judge its chances objectively.

If First Aid Kit doesn’t make it out of SF2 I will be more fuming than if my own song doesn’t qualify!

I also find it hard to predict such big lists of music, but I would be surprised if Yehesi's and Taahino's entries don't make it into the final.

I don't think Zanmatony are anywhere near being green this month. I'm expecting to only appeal to a small minority if that so starting 2026 off with a DNQ.

12 hours ago, blacksquare said:

I genuinely don't know how to predict 12 DNQs

Brutal

SEMI_ONE

LOCK
SAFE
BUBBLE
DNQ

01 Cor Lupus :: Kyra Machida – Blonde

02 Lookylion :: Momo Boyd – American Love Song

03 Pagasa :: Cameron Winter – Nausicaä (Love Will Be Revealed)

04 Pestolia :: frutiger dillon – Windows98

05 FARC :: Banoffee – Muscles

06 N DNTN :: KNEECAP – THE RECAP (feat. Mozey)

07 Freidland :: Connie Talbot – Original

08 Herbilore :: Mia Wray – Only Love

09 A-Konohagakure :: CHANMINA – TEST ME

10 Ennea :: Paris Paloma – the warmth

11 Sandénia :: Shawn Mendes – Heavy

12 Terra Avium :: yeule – Veil Of Darkness

13 Hendinia :: Klavdia & ARCADE – Anemos

14 Mothertopia :: Kelly Lee Owens – Higher

15 Deandria :: Merina Gris – Mejor*

16 Lotunia :: Army Of Lovers – Love Is Blue (feat. Olya Polyakova)

17 Ben's Sanctuary :: Kai Tracid – 4 Just 1 Day

18 East Rukahavian :: The Hidden Cameras – Undertow

19 Kathaldazia :: Chesuqi – The Blue

20 Land of DW :: Csaknekedkislány – Minden Mozog

21 Jupiterdonia :: Ancient Umbra – Iron Will

22 Dalisska :: Storefront Church – The High Room

23 Kluminican Republic :: KAS:ST – Sound Of The Soul

24 Bøtanikkä :: LA NIÑA – FIGLIA D' 'A TEMPESTA

25 Neliönoir :: FAUST – Dies Irae

26 Flynnonda :: crushed – silene

27 Hushkanukia :: Valencia Grace – Lucky You're A Star

28 Juranabaijan :: Angie – Poco Poco

29 Aeroche :: KING BOOO! – Tunes Since '89

30 Ajanaeda :: Florence Road – Storm Warnings

31 Cumulonimbia :: umiña – spiral

32 Bronzil :: KÄSSY – i-i-i

This is mostly based on the listenthrough last night and which songs received more muted reactions, although it is always tricky to gauge without a pop audience. In a large semi, is being loved by a select few more important than being generally liked? I imagine a small concentration of big votes carries more weight than a lot of middling ones?

It’s hard to predict where the pop voters will go beyond a few obvious hits, but the alt/electronic bloc has a lot of strong options

I'm really not used to predicting a semi with 12 DNQs I hate it

Jeez, I wasn't completely active in the listenthrough yesterday but that really does highlight how much harder it is to predict 20 out of 32.

I'd have called Herbilore, Terra Avium and Nelionoir making it for sure. And some of your locks, I'd probably have around the bubble. VERY UNPREDICTABLE.

1 minute ago, RobBot said:

Jeez, I wasn't completely active in the listenthrough yesterday but that really does highlight how much harder it is to predict 20 out of 32.

I'd have called Herbilore, Terra Avium and Nelionoir making it for sure. And some of your locks, I'd probably have around the bubble. VERY UNPREDICTABLE.

Oh my

I need to see your bubble

If I were to categorise it in the same way, I'd say:

LOCK

FARC :: Banoffee – Muscles

N DNTN :: KNEECAP – THE RECAP (feat. Mozey)

Hendinia :: Klavdia & ARCADE – Anemos (this probably makes me look arrogant, but the listenthrough was much more positive than I'd expect!)

Mothertopia :: Kelly Lee Owens – Higher

Kathaldazia :: Chesuqi – The Blue

Kluminican Republic :: KAS:ST – Sound Of The Soul

Bøtanikkä :: LA NIÑA – FIGLIA D' 'A TEMPESTA

Hushkanukia :: Valencia Grace – Lucky You're A Star

Aeroche :: KING BOOO! – Tunes Since '89

Cumulonimbia :: umiña – spiral

SAFE

Cor Lupus :: Kyra Machida – Blonde

Herbilore :: Mia Wray – Only Love

Ennea :: Paris Paloma – the warmth

Terra Avium :: yeule – Veil Of Darkness

Deandria :: Merina Gris – Mejor*

Neliönoir :: FAUST – Dies Irae

BUBBLE

Pestolia :: frutiger dillon – Windows98

Ben's Sanctuary :: Kai Tracid – 4 Just 1 Day

Ajanaeda :: Florence Road – Storm Warnings

Dalisska :: Storefront Church – The High Room

-----------------------------------------------------

Juranabaijan :: Angie – Poco Poco

Pagasa :: Cameron Winter – Nausicaä (Love Will Be Revealed)

Land of DW :: Csaknekedkislány – Minden Mozog

Jupiterdonia :: Ancient Umbra – Iron Will

Bronzil :: KÄSSY – i-i-i

A-Konohagakure :: CHANMINA – TEST ME

LIKELY DNQs

Lookylion :: Momo Boyd – American Love Song

Freidland :: Connie Talbot – Original

Sandénia :: Shawn Mendes – Heavy

Lotunia :: Army Of Lovers – Love Is Blue (feat. Olya Polyakova)

East Rukahavian :: The Hidden Cameras – Undertow

Flynnonda :: crushed – silene

I do realise that having so many in the bubble is just me being non-committal and I do also realise that I'm notoriously not the best at making these predictions. My thought process with Pestolia being on the bubble, as opposed to your lock list, is that it does sound strong but the "dance/electronic" bloc is the strongest this contest and I think Aeroche/Cumulonimbia/Kathaldazia/Mothertopia are more likely to take the big points there? Comparably, Valencia (and perhaps Klavdia) is the only straight up pop song in the safe list, so Herbilore seem like a likely beneficiary of that.

2 minutes ago, RobBot said:

I do realise that having so many in the bubble is just me being non-committal

As someone who has often (especially in the past) been called non-committal and on the fence, I say - it's okay to be human and not always cling to a perspective.

Edited January 19Jan 19 by matto

The thing with these predictions is so often it's the same nations that are predicted as being in the "DNQ range" and whilst I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing (I've not heard the entries in full yet) it seems rare if ever that a "safe" nation with an impeccable qualification streak gets a shock DNQ prediction even with an inferior entry potentially.

Just my 10 cents, and I know voting habits and trends do come into it but from an outsider point of view it seems like people quickly dismiss the usual names each time who don't always get the results they deserve to. Eventually someone needs to give someone like Freidland a fighting chance!

1 minute ago, awardinary said:

The thing with these predictions is so often it's the same nations that are predicted as being in the "DNQ range" and whilst I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing (I've not heard the entries in full yet) it seems rare if ever that a "safe" nation with an impeccable qualification streak gets a shock DNQ prediction even with an inferior entry potentially.

Just my 10 cents, and I know voting habits and trends do come into it but from an outsider point of view it seems like people quickly dismiss the usual names each time who don't always get the results they deserve to. Eventually someone needs to give someone like Freidland a fighting chance!

I still think Freidland's first entry (Just For Fun) sounded like a hit and I remember remarking so in the predictions thread for that. I'm not sure I feel the same for this entry but I always love to champion different countries doing well so I hope it happens for them, Ennea, Zephyra Continuum soon, if not this contest!

I don't think you're wrong though. I am definitely guilty of never being able to let myself into the thinking that Aeroche/Nelionoir/Kathaldazia will DNQ, because they so rarely do. That kind of conscious bias is really hard to shift from your thinking when you're trying to apply logic to something that is very difficult to predict.

6 minutes ago, awardinary said:

The thing with these predictions is so often it's the same nations that are predicted as being in the "DNQ range" and whilst I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing (I've not heard the entries in full yet) it seems rare if ever that a "safe" nation with an impeccable qualification streak gets a shock DNQ prediction even with an inferior entry potentially.

Just my 10 cents, and I know voting habits and trends do come into it but from an outsider point of view it seems like people quickly dismiss the usual names each time who don't always get the results they deserve to. Eventually someone needs to give someone like Freidland a fighting chance!

There is definitely some truth to this. It’s hard not to factor in consistency with nations like Hendinia, Danæviia, Aeroche, etc, but that can change with 12 DNQs every month. I also struggle with predicting poppier or ballad entries unless they’re undeniable, and a lot of my predictions come from listenthroughs (which are notoriously unreliable)

I feel more confident predicting based on a bloc of ten or so countries and what they might vote for, and then working outwards from there. If there’s no overlap with them, or it isn’t a standout smash, it likely ends up in the bubble

I am often insanely wrong so my method needs tinkering with

when my French-language entry gets an 18 from Bré

who’s the real winner then

I look at the songs first and not the nations - and reduce the songs step by step - with each listenthrough the number of songs get smaller until I end up with 10. Currently I have 14 in my list. Of course the official listenthrough may also make a change.

16 minutes ago, DaTilt said:

I look at the songs first and not the nations - and reduce the songs step by step - with each listenthrough the number of songs get smaller until I end up with 10. Currently I have 14 in my list. Of course the official listenthrough may also make a change.

I do similar - first listen gets rid of anything I really don’t like. Then 3-4 songs get eliminated after each listen

Side note - fully expect Valencia to qualify (and she should) but it’s not as instant to me as the two songs I’ve sent of hers in the last few months