Well... I was just thinking with his opening sales of 226,808, could be looking at 9-10 weeks, its so difficult to tell as there is hardly new material out, I know Major Lazer has a new single to drop soon, but I don't think it will get there. No point in adding 2 weeks, I just broke it down a bit.

 

The Album has been given a release date of March 3rd (Source: OCC)

10wks

8 weeks, and Ed will knock himself off #1 with whatever album track gets instantly popular.

I think Castle On The Hill may knock.Shape Of You off in two weeksor so, depending on COTH's AirPlay.

All year.

I put 4 weeks although it could be a lot more without decent competition.

To break it down:

 

Streaming: Average number one recently has about 4.5 to 5 million. The half life of One Dance (from peak of ~9M to ~4.5M) was about 10 weeks. If Shape of You decays at the same rate it'll be hitting 6.5M in about the same time, which now equates to 45K in chart money.

 

Sales: Here I think Hello is the closest comparison - it decayed to 20% over 5 weeks. That would be about 25K.

 

Combined sales: Using the above Shape of You would have ~50K after 10 weeks. That is on the cusp - the lowest number one combined sales recently was 59K but 70-80 is more usual.

 

A lot might depend on whether the album release gives the song a boost - personally I don't think it will be significant. More interesting, perhaps is how long Ed can monopolise the number one (as Bieber did) with tracks from the album. Could he get to Easter? Seems possible.

'Shape Of You' sounds like it was almost created with the intention of being a 10+ week number one (which could easily happen, until something else huge comes along)

Is this about Shape of You or Ed Sheeran as an artist? He'll replace himself at #1 with next song he'll release

 

So I say 5 weeks for SOY

Edited January 15, 20178 yr by SKOB

Until April at least

Agree with others saying Ed will replace himself at number one.

 

Shape Of You will probably be #1 until around the Brits, then he could perform a new track will will go to #1, then the album will be released about 2 weeks later and the chart will be an Ed Sheeran massacre.

He said on Radio 1 that he expected Castle to overtake Shape after a few weeks as it's more of a grower so I voted for 3 weeks.

Edited January 15, 20178 yr by King Rollo

The high number of real sales could limit his time at the top. After all, those people aren't going to buy the song(s) again and they won't contribute any streams. Unless, of course, he releases one or both songs on CD with b-sides that will only ever be available on that CD!

I think he'll probably perform 'Castle...' at the Brits, which will push it ahead then. Until then we've probably got 'Shape of You' as #1.

10 weeks for me. Either consisting of just Shape of You or both of them

What is Sam Smith doing right now?

I think he'll probably perform 'Castle...' at the Brits, which will push it ahead then. Until then we've probably got 'Shape of You' as #1.

Good point, that seems likely to me too. So 6-7 weeks for 'Shape Of You', the Brits are on a Wednesday so the Brits effect may be split between two chart weeks.

 

What is Sam Smith doing right now?

He's probably at home having his dinner.

He's probably at home having his dinner.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!