Unfortunately I can see the Brexit Party winning this by quite a clear margin.

 

The anti-Politics feeling is also being fuelled and stoked up by Change UK but they still seem to be languishing in the doldrums.

But the Brexit Party just plays on the emotions associated - you know what you're getting despite the fact it's going to be like your worst nightmare.

 

I feel the Remain vote is way too split.

COMRES poll (with European seat projections):

 

BXP 27% (+27)

Lab 25% (-)

LD 14% (+7)

Con 13% (-11)

Grn 8% (-)

ChUK 6% (+6)

SNP 4% (+2)

UKIP 3% (-25)

 

My seat estimate

BXP 24 (+24)

Lab 21 (+1)

LD 10 (+9)

Con 8 (-11)

Grn 2 (-1)

SNP 2 (-)

UKIP 2 (-22)

PC 1 (-)

ChUK 0 (-)

 

A Grn/LD/ChUK and SNP coalition would be around 2 pt ahead of BXP/UKIP.

Westminster voting intention (via @HanburyStrategy,):

 

Lab 30% (-11)

Con 21% (-23)

BXP 19% (+19)

LD 13% (+5)

ChUK 6% (+6)

Grn 5% (+3)

SNP 4% (+1)

UKIP 2% (-)

 

Projected Seat estimate

Lab 314 (+52)

Con 224 (-93)

SNP 53 (+18)

LD 35 (+23)

BXP 0 (-)

ChUK 0 (-)

Oth 24 (-)

 

 

*.*

Westminster voting intention (via @HanburyStrategy,):

 

Lab 30% (-11)

Con 21% (-23)

BXP 19% (+19)

LD 13% (+5)

ChUK 6% (+6)

Grn 5% (+3)

SNP 4% (+1)

UKIP 2% (-)

 

Projected Seat estimate

Lab 314 (+52)

Con 224 (-93)

SNP 53 (+18)

LD 35 (+23)

BXP 0 (-)

ChUK 0 (-)

Oth 24 (-)

*.*

 

Two things -

 

No majority for Lab even with a 9% lead.

No seats for BXP even with 19% of the vote. :o

Two things -

 

No majority for Lab even with a 9% lead.

No seats for BXP even with 19% of the vote. :o

Electoral Calculus gives the Farage Fanclub some seats based on those figures. My guess is that it is the difference between giving them a starting point of zero or building on the UKIP vote.

Mental that 19% of the vote can still give you 0-5 seats max. Shows how the vote spread is important!!

Mental that 19% of the vote can still give you 0-5 seats max. Shows how the vote spread is important!!

 

That's the absurdity of the FPTP system - the SNP vote is obviously concentrated in Scotland so appears low at 4% but gives them almost all Scottish seats (53 out of 59).

 

I think the Brexit Party would on that vote share finish second in up to 100 seats - and as Suedey says the Electoral Calculus site actually gives the Brexit Party one seat- https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

I assume that would be Boston & Skegness??

That's the absurdity of the FPTP system - the SNP vote is obviously concentrated in Scotland so appears low at 4% but gives them almost all Scottish seats (53 out of 59).

 

I think the Brexit Party would on that vote share finish second in up to 100 seats - and as Suedey says the Electoral Calculus site actually gives the Brexit Party one seat- https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

I assume that would be Boston & Skegness??

Thurrock. It's not about the overall Leave vote, but rather where the Tory and Labour votes are both relatively low. Like many high Leave-voting seats, Boston & Skegness is safe Tory whereas Thurrock has been a marginal for decades.

Is the increase back to 2015 levels for the SNP due to the Brexit situation. I got the general feeling that their support was on the wane(or plateux at least) maybe at devolved level at least.

Is the increase back to 2015 levels for the SNP due to the Brexit situation. I got the general feeling that their support was on the wane(or plateux at least) maybe at devolved level at least.

 

Same reason for the increase in support for Lib Dems and Green Party, a strong pro-Remain message, yes.

Ruthie had a very successful catch phrase in “no indyref2” (no actual policies of course) which did what it was designed to do an get unionists to vote tactically. The SNP actually got more votes in 2016 than in 2011. Their council vote is higher than ever as well. They’ve got on with the day job while being a clear and consistent voice against Brexit. Their support isn’t going anywhere.

 

Davidson like to mouth off that she will be the next FM but they’re not even on half the level of support of the SNP on a bad poll for the SNP. On a good day, Ruth has about 45% of the level of support that Nicola has.

Given how long they have been in power in Scotland (including the period when they were propped up by the Tories), the SNP are doing very well at the moment. They have made themselves the leading pro-Remain party in Scotland, well ahead of the Lib Dems and Greens. Whether that translates into a majority for independence remains to be seen.

Leaked poll due to come out shortly has Lib Dems now in the lead on 24%!! Followed by Brexit and then Labour and Tories on 19% each.

 

Lib Dems *.*

If the rumoured figures are confirmed, electoral calculus shows the Lib Dems first in the popular vote but fourth un seats. Labour, joint third in the popular vote would have the most seats. Welcome to First Past The Post.

Confirmation:

 

@1134207549249654786

 

We are truly living in the banter era.

This feels like such a moment for the Lib Dems!

So it's the first time Lib Dems have led in a Westminster poll since YouGov's own back in April 2010(!)

 

And just like that the coalition years are a distant memory *.*

The next election is going to be seriously spicy.

Come on Lib Dems!! *_* The Greens on 8% as well... Now if only that could translate into enough seats for a Green/SNP/Lib Dem coalition of sorts. I'm hoping the Conseratives and Labour will continue to fall. I think people are finally realising they have the power to completely change the stagnant Con-Labour governments. A lot of people think you're wasting a vote by not voting for Lab or Con, so glad to see that changing significantly.

 

Hopefully the next leader of the Lib Dems will be able to carry this momentum forward.