Yes I see what you mean. How would Boris be toast if he had most seats though? Surely another confidence & supply arrangement with the DUP? Remember he has first stab at trying to form a working majority.

 

The DUP are likely to lose a lot of their seats - plus as the WA throws Northern Ireland under a bus and potentially accelerates the reunification of Ireland I doubt they'll be so willing this time around.

The DUP are likely to lose a lot of their seats - plus as the WA throws Northern Ireland under a bus and potentially accelerates the reunification of Ireland I doubt they'll be so willing this time around.

 

Am sure Jo wouldn't pass up the chance of a Jag and title of Deputy PM.

It's a mandate under FPTP. It's certainly at least as valid a mandate (and would be a good deal more recent) than the supposed mandate for a hard-line form of Leave.

I would argue that it's an infinitely more valid mandate than the hard brexit mandate seeing as people actually know they would be voting for A50 revocation!

 

Am sure Jo wouldn't pass up the chance of a Jag and title of Deputy PM.

If she gets a second ref she'll have moved in by lunchtime on the 13th. Assuming she keeps her seat that is.

I would argue that it's an infinitely more valid mandate than the hard brexit mandate seeing as people actually know they would be voting for A50 revocation!

If she gets a second ref she'll have moved in by lunchtime on the 13th. Assuming she keeps her seat that is.

Any coalition agreement must be agreed by a special Lib Dem conference. The chances of that happening by lunchtime on 13 December (assuming that is the month you meant) are zero.

Am sure Jo wouldn't pass up the chance of a Jag and title of Deputy PM.

It’s not just her decision. Unlike the Tories, the Lib Dems are a democratic party. A coalition will only happen if the members agree.

 

It’s not just her decision. Unlike the Tories, the Lib Dems are a democratic party. A coalition will only happen if the members agree.

Did you get a vote in 2010 too or is this a new policy since?

Did you get a vote in 2010 too or is this a new policy since?

 

Yes, and it went REALLY WELL last time.

 

Liberal Democrat activists tonight sent their leadership a sharp reminder not to betray the party's key promises to scrap tuition fees, protect the Human Rights Act and campaign for radical electoral reform in their coalition deal with the Conservatives.

Did you get a vote in 2010 too or is this a new policy since?

It had to be agreed by a special conference.

 

I'm not at all convinced that members would trust Johnson to deliver a referendum, even if he offered it.

Yes, and it went REALLY WELL last time.

Why do you think members wouldn't take that into account when it came to a vote? Surely they would be ultra-cautious in accepting a coalition, particularly with the TOries.

I hope Swinson loses her seat. Would be worth staying up for. Twitter would implode. From PM in waiting to ex-MP. Party leadership recognition should see her retain it though.

 

 

Would she have to resign as leader then?

Edited November 12, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

Why do you think members wouldn't take that into account when it came to a vote? Surely they would be ultra-cautious in accepting a coalition, particularly with the TOries.

 

That was my point, I think the chance of a coalition (with either party) is near zero.

That was my point, I think the chance of a coalition (with either party) is near zero.

Under Johnson or Corbyn, the chances are almost vanishingly slim.

Under Johnson or Corbyn, the chances are almost vanishingly slim.

The closest arrangement I can envisage is for the Lib Dems not to oppose a Labour / SNP administration.

The closest arrangement I can envisage is for the Lib Dems not to oppose a Labour / SNP administration.

 

 

I agree Suedy but at present I can't see Labour getting more seats than the Tories. I'll eat my shirt if Corbyn's PM at Christmas.

Anybody got their polling cards yet? Got ours today. Wife says it's early. Upset me as one came for Rachel too, must tell them to take her off the electoral roll.

Anybody got their polling cards yet? Got ours today. Wife says it's early. Upset me as one came for Rachel too, must tell them to take her off the electoral roll.

 

Mine arrived today.

Updated poll average based on the most recent poll from each of Kantar, ComRes, You Gov, Survation, ICM, BMG, Opinium, Deltapoll and Panelbase. All reported between 8 and 13 November. Comparison with a similar average of polls on 3 November.

 

CON 38.8% (+0.3)

LAB 29.0% (+2.0)

LDM 15.9% (-0.4)

BRX 7.7% (-1.9)

 

Putting those figures (and for Scotland the most recent You Gov Scottish poll) into the Electoral Calculus model/electionpolling.co.uk swingometer gives:-

 

CON 369 / 330

LAB 195 / 220

SNP 45 / 50

LDM 20 / 27

PC 2 / 4

GRN 1

NIre 18

 

Con Maj 88 / 10 (effectively 95 / 17 if you assume 7 SF MPs don't sit)

It's looking bleak.

 

 

It's looking bleak.

 

I wouldn't say that just yet. Labour is consistently trending upward, outpacing the rate at which the Cons are making any games. The vote share isn't going to translate perfectly into seats either given tactical voting is going to be very common. The Tory campaign so far has been quite abyssmal - if that continues we'll likely see the other parties start to eat into their lead. We still have manifestos to be published and the TV debates. The debates will be; 19th Nov ITV, 28th Nov Sky News, 29th Nov & 6th Dec BBC. There's also the recent negative reaction to the government's slow response to the flooding in Yorkshire, something that may work against them in the coming weeks.

 

See my post in the other thread. It could yet all be decided on turnout and voting intentions of the young. 300,000 new young people, 18-24 have registered to vote but depends where they are. If they're in already red seats with big majorities it won't make much difference.

Edited November 13, 20195 yr by common sense