I hate to tell you this, but only a very small proportion of voters actually took any notice of the campaign, other than the bits we were beaten over the head with ; the £350m NHS, Farage's infamous poster, and the Jo Cox murder.

 

I respect your opinion and understand for voting Brexit, but you’re basically just confirming what everyone already knows - the majority of people that voted for Leave had no clue what they were voting for. And they definitely were not voting for No Deal. There is a reason why this was not presented as an option during the referendum. It’s suicidial.

Ok I'm a masochist and I looked up to see how many of the current Brexiteer rebels (i.e. those who voted against MV2 two weeks' ago) are still opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement, despite it becoming increasingly difficult for No Deal to happen. Very important as getting the number low enough won't be enough to pass the WA on its own, but could trigger enough Labour MPs (15-30ish) to vote for the WA and get it across the line. Even without the DUP's support.

 

There were 75 Tories who down the WA at MV2. Here's how they're divided now:

 

Confirmed opposition

Suella Braverman

Andrea Jenkyns

Andrew Bridgen

Crispin Blunt

Priti Patel

Anne-Marie Trevelyan (has stated that it's contigent on DUP opposition - they have reaffirmed their opposition to it this week)

(6)

 

Probably voting against but unconfirmed

Owen Paterson

Mark Francois

Steve Baker

Marcus Fysh

Dominic Raab

Bernard Jenkin

Craig Mackinlay

Anne Marie Morris

Laurence Robertson

(9)

 

Jury is still out - they are engaging with the Brexit debate on social media/traditional media/within the house of commons but haven't actually indicated how they will vote.

Bill Cash

Michael Tomlinson

John Redwood

Peter Bone

Iain Duncan Smith

David Jones

Andrew Lewer

Sheryll Murray

Tom Pursglove

Andrew Rosindell

Lee Rowley

Michael Tomlinson

Theresa Villiers

John Baron

(14)

 

? - Literally invisible MPs. No active social media. No media appearances etc. Who are these dinosaurs?

Mark Harper

James Duddridge

Richard Drax

Richard Bacon

Philip Hollobone

Adam Holloway

Ranil Jayawardena

Gareth Johnson

Julian Lewis

Ian Liddell-Grainger

Julia Lopez

Jonathan Lord

Anne Main

Grant Shapps

Bob Stewart

Christopher Chope

David Jones

(17)

 

Tory ex-Remainers - Not really sure what their conditions are tbh. Their opposition to the WA is very different to others in this list. Most Remain-leaning MPs who rebelled against the whip for other amendments did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

Guto Bebb

Damian Collins

Michael Fallon

Justine Greening

Dominic Grieve

Sam Gyimah

Jo Johnson

Phillip Lee

(8)

 

Opened door to possibility of voting but unconfirmed

Chris Green

Charlie Elphicke

Simon Clarke

Adam Afriyie

Boris Johnson

Pauline Latham

Ross Thomson

Craig Tracey

Shailesh Vara

(9)

 

Already confirmed switch to support - bottom of page

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Daniel Kawczynski

James Gray

Esther McVey

Michael Fabricant

Rehman Chishti

Henry Smith

Eddie Hughes

Gordon Henderson

Lucy Allan

John Whittingdale

Royston Smith

Robert Courts

Conor Burns

(14)

 

So there seem to be slightly more switches than those standing their ground, but it's really quite difficult to tell, with so many staying quiet about it. The Telegraph suggests that 19 are 'irreconcilable'. If this is the case, then MV3 would still fail without more Labour switchers, but it would be reasonably close.

 

The DUP (x10) and Kate Hoey (an honorary DUP MP) have also confirmed their opposition.

 

So I hope that the Speaker doesn't actually block MV3 because then my research will have gone to waste!

 

p.s. my searches were quick skims and tonight's votes could change positions, so I'm very open to being wrong.

Edited March 27, 20196 yr by Harve

May agrees to go if her Deal gets through.

 

Theresa May tonight promised her MPs she will quit once her deal is delivered and will not be in charge of the next phase of Brexit talks.

 

The Prime Minister set no date for her departure. The trade talks phase of Brexit is expected to begin in the autumn - suggesting the she plans to be gone before the Conservative Party conference in late September.

 

Amid fury at her handling of divorce talks, Mrs May told her party: 'I will not remain in post for the next phase of the negotiations.'

 

Mrs May admitted the departure was 'earlier' than she had planned but accepted it was necessary to 'secure a smooth and orderly Brexit'.

 

Ministers were barred from entering committee room 14 before the PM's arrival because the room was too full. Those inside greeted her with 'muted' banging of the desks as she entered.

 

In a fresh twist, John Bercow this afternoon threatened new Brexit chaos by throwing doubts over Mrs May's efforts to get her deal through the Commons by Friday.

 

The Speaker warned the government today that her deal must have changed from the last time she brought it forward for a vote – and she cannot use a procedural device known as a 'paving motion' to get around him.

 

Bercow has already been accused of having Remainer sympathies and trying to thwart Britain leaving the EU.

 

May's government insists that a new Brexit date agreed with the EU and clarifications to the backstop announced at a summit in Brussels amount to a 'significant change'.

 

The Speaker alone will decide if the change is sufficient and is expected to announce the night before if he will block a third vote.

 

It comes after Mrs May faced down MPs in the Commons today and hinted she could hold a third vote on her deal as early as tomorrow. The Government is preparing to ask Parliament to sit on Friday in case they call the vote then.

 

 

Edited March 27, 20196 yr by Common Sense

When I grow I want to be a political party whip.

Sir :puke: Christopher Chope is the one who blocks the upskirting/FGM bills passing without debate as he opposes the process but suddenly he holds no opposition when its his friends doing it

 

I hate to tell you this, but only a very small proportion of voters actually took any notice of the campaign, other than the bits we were beaten over the head with ; the £350m NHS, Farage's infamous poster, and the Jo Cox murder.

Ohhh now whose generalising

May's statement must mean she is about to revoke A50. That means there won't be a next phase, so she still cling on to office.

May's statement must mean she is about to revoke A50. That means there won't be a next phase, so she still cling on to office.

 

She surely wouldn't do that? I can only assume she's playing chicken with the ERG, as to which many have finally fallen in line.

 

Hopefully the Speaker stays firm and her shit deal isn't put back up.

I see that as e rhetorical question. :mellow:

Which imho they have done, as if they hadn't, they could have gone straight for the No Deal option.

I couldn't possibly comment. :teresa:

 

1. Politiicians ignore the elcectorate at their own risk . 48% of voters (now prob more like 54%) can do them serious damsge as May found out before she'd even made a cock-up of everything.

 

2. Going stright to No Deal would have instantly put the impossible-to-argue-against case that they were insane, as it wasn't pushed by ANYONE in the referendum on either side as even the faintest possibility. it's just become the "default excuse" for those who failed to provide the utterly fabulous deal we were promised who then claim like the liars they are that they can read the minds of 17.4 million people.

 

3. Well that would make a pleasant change.... :P

Any predictions for who the next PM would be? Something worries me that it will be Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Any predictions for who the next PM would be? Something worries me that it will be Jacob Rees-Mogg.

I fear it will be someone who soon relegates May into second place in the list of worst PMs of my lifetime.

Any predictions for who the next PM would be? Something worries me that it will be Jacob Rees-Mogg.

 

He may do, but I doubt it. Suspect he will throw his support behind Johnson in return for the Chancellor gig. Right now before all the twists and turns come, I'd suspect Gove has a decent chance depending on how stubborn the hardline ERG are.

 

Probably looking at Gove, Johnson, Raab, Hunt, Javid - suspect whoever gets the gig will be a Brexiteer, just depends how hardcore they are.

Sir :puke: Christopher Chope is the one who blocks the upskirting/FGM bills passing without debate as he opposes the process but suddenly he holds no opposition when its his friends doing it

 

And just said yesterday that people can protect themselves against knife attacks by "getting fitter". :lol:

 

There's no beginning to that man's intelligence.

Boris Johnson is now backing May’s deal.

 

Leadership over our future :rolleyes:

 

The likes of Mogg and Boris can change their minds WEEKS after publicly shaming the deal and how it is bad for our country but the public cannot have a further say after three years. Wooo democracy

Boris Johnson is now backing May’s deal.

 

Leadership over our future :rolleyes:

 

The likes of Mogg and Boris can change their minds WEEKS after publicly shaming the deal and how it is bad for our country but the public cannot have a further say after three years. Wooo democracy

 

I wish the people screaming DEMOCRACY over the concept of a second referendum would be more aware of the sheer hypocrisy.

I'm still flabbergasted that MPs are having a vote over which kind of brexit to go with... 2 days before we legally leave the EU. It should've been done years ago before negotiations occurred.

 

The results of the votes will be very interesting. May agreeing to step down if her deal is approved is also interesting, but what about in the event her deal doesn't get through? I assume the revoking of article 50 may occur?

 

The online petition certainly did its job thankfully. It's made many MPs once again aware that many want to stay in the EU and so they should be looking at all options; including revoking Article 50.

 

I hope that we don't get Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Jacob Rees Mogg as the next PM. Particularly Boris...

 

To anyone worried about the prospect of a Boris or Rees-Moog premiership,

 

,

 

because it won't happen.

 

 

The DUP saying they will vote against - you'd need about 25-30 Labour votes for it to through. I can't see it - May has fuked herself. Problem the Tory's have is they don't have anyone in the wings who can unite the Centre ground. Honestly if Labour had a half-decent leader..

Ugh, such a transparent move from May to get something through and pat herself on the back and say she got us a deal then free herself of responsibility from the next stages. It's clearly no different than before so I don't see why this can now suddenly be backed so much, even if it does promise that we'll finally be rid of her (and get someone as or even worse, doubtless). Really hoping people don't fall for it.

So.

 

No to everything then.

Fabulous. Just fab-u-lous.