Lady Sylvia Hernon has announced that she's not running for her North Down seat this year. She's one of the few MPs in recent times to have been elected as an independent - she was originally elected as a UUP MP, but became independent in 2010, and has been re-elected at each GE since.

 

 

Widow of the former RUC Chief Constable of course.

This election is different. May wasn't a campaigner but Boris is and won the Mayoral election in London twice.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how this so-called great campaigner started his second mayoral campaign as clear favourite but only won by a small margin. You could also consider the fact that he saw his majority halved at the last election in Uxbridge.

Swings and roundabouts. He still won!

 

Electoral Calculus today predicts a near 100 seat Tory majority, based on all recent polls.

Edited November 6, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

Swings and roundabouts. He still won!

 

Electoral Calculus today predicts a near 100 seat Tory majority, based on all recent polls.

 

Yes but technically May won the last election and look what happened there :lol:

 

Swings and roundabouts. He still won!

 

Electoral Calculus today predicts a near 100 seat Tory majority, based on all recent polls.

So you can't explain it then. Quelle surprise.

I'm locking this thread until tomorrow morning.

 

Again, can I remind ALL posters to please respect each other and refrain from swearing at others.

Okay this is the exact opinion poll which would result in a completely hung parliament. This would give the Tories 320 seats on Dec. 13th and largest party but 6 short of a majority. Obviously anything higher for the Tories gives them a majority so 35% - 28% would give them a majority of 2.

 

 

Con 34%

Lab 29 %

Lib Dem 16%

BXP 10%

Greens 5%

UKIP 1%

Edited November 7, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

This would result in a completely hung Parliament with Tories at 320 seats.

 

Now the below scenarios are extremely important as the most minor change would have huge impacts:

 

> 1% from Con to BXP (with all others remaining the same) would leave the Tories at 311 seats.

 

> 1% from Lib Dems to Lab (with all others remaining the same) would leave the Tories at 313 seats.

 

> 1% from Lab to Lib Dems (with all others remaining the same) would give the Tories a majority at 326.

 

> 1% from Greens to Lab (with all others remaining the same) would leave the Tories at 306 seats.

 

If by some miracle we'd get to Con 32%, Lab 30%, Lib 16%, BXP 12%, Greens 4% then the Tories would be down to 289 seats and most importantly there'd be a high chance that Redwood, Rees-Mogg, Maria Caulfield, Andrea Jenkyns and Zac Goldsmith would likely lose their seats.

I'd LOVE for Rees-Mogg and Jenkyns to lose their seats! It seems somewhat too good to be true, but still.

This would result in a completely hung Parliament with Tories at 320 seats.

 

Now the below scenarios are extremely important as the most minor change would have huge impacts:

 

> 1% from Con to BXP (with all others remaining the same) would leave the Tories at 311 seats.

 

> 1% from Lib Dems to Lab (with all others remaining the same) would leave the Tories at 313 seats.

 

> 1% from Lab to Lib Dems (with all others remaining the same) would give the Tories a majority at 326.

 

> 1% from Greens to Lab (with all others remaining the same) would leave the Tories at 306 seats.

 

If by some miracle we'd get to Con 32%, Lab 30%, Lib 16%, BXP 12%, Greens 4% then the Tories would be down to 289 seats and most importantly there'd be a high chance that Redwood, Rees-Mogg, Maria Caulfield, Andrea Jenkyns and Zac Goldsmith would likely lose their seats.

It will be a major surprise if Zac Goldsmith is not defeated. He is a Laver with a majority of 45 in a seat that voted roughly 70% Remain. The Lib Dems had excellent local elections in Richmond, taking control of the council with a comfortable majority.

Not sure how big of a difference this will make, but Lib Dems/Greens/Plaid Cymru have agreed a pact for the election. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50327937

 

They won't compete against each other in ~60 seats. This may help the Greens to get a second seat depending on how the election goes. A couple of the seats the Lib Dems aren't going to stand in are Bristol West & Isle of Wight. The Greens came somewhat close to getting Bristol West back in 2015, although in 2017 Labour won the seat with a very comfortable lead. It'll be interesting to see how well the Greens do there. The biggest battle will be Isle of Wight though. Greens came 3rd in the last election with a 4% increase in vote share. With Lib Dems standing down and The Brexit Party fielding a candidate in the seat (likely eating into the Tory vote), it could be a very interesting seat. I do believe Isle of Wight will be the greens best chance of a second seat.

Edited November 7, 20195 yr by Envoirment

Swings and roundabouts. He still won!

 

Electoral Calculus today predicts a near 100 seat Tory majority, based on all recent polls.

 

I'm not as sceptical about the polls as MM :lol: but I don't think there's any chance of that big a majority. Mind you, either party having a working majority would at least spare us from another GE until 2024... :dance:

I'd LOVE for Rees-Mogg and Jenkyns to lose their seats! It seems somewhat too good to be true, but still.

 

 

Please!!

Rees-Mogg losing could be the story of the night. Assuming Boris keeps his that is.

Rumours that Boris was drunk last night at a meeting where he tried to explain his deal. He'd had a few apparently and stumbled a lot over his words. :o

 

https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/...564837345353728

Edited November 8, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

Rumours that Boris was drunk last night at a meeting where he tried to explain his deal. He'd had a few apparently and stumbled a lot over his words. :o

 

https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/...564837345353728

 

I’ve heard my own brother interviewing Boris when he was completely sober and he still stumbled all over his words and struggled to explain things so he may not have been drunk after all.

According to The Daily Mail support for Labour is collapsing across the country as Jeremy Corbyn lurches from one crisis to the next, a new poll has revealed at the end of a disastrous few days for the party.

 

The new YouGov poll shows the Conservatives are pulling ahead in almost every region of the country, including many traditionally leave-voting Labour heartlands.

 

It comes at the end of a dismal week for Mr Corbyn, which has seen the resignation of his deputy Tom Watson, a string of election candidates caught in controversy, a full-frontal attack from the Jewish Chronicle, as well as Rabbi Jonathan Romain savaging the party's battle with anti-Semitism.

 

YouGov poll shows support for Labour collapsing across UK, with Tories taking lead in leave-voting heartlands

Support for Corbyn's party has fallen 25 points in North West to 30 per cent, giving Tories a three-point lead

Tories five-point lead in Yorkshire gives PM a lead in every English region apart from London and North East

It comes at the end of a dismal week for Mr Corbyn, which has seen the resignation of his deputy Tom Watson

Fresh woe last night when former Home Secretary Blunkett blasted party's 'anti-Semitism and thuggery'

And frontbencher Marsha De Cordova admitted claiming Remembrance Sunday wreath on expenses in 2018

the same pattern has handed the Tories a five-point lead, giving Boris Johnson's party a lead in every English region apart from London and the North East, despite support for both main parties dropping across the country with more than a month to go until the vote.

Edited November 9, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

This poll was conducted last month. The Tories have led in the shambles stakes so far this month, so that poll is already out of date.

"According to the Daily Mail".

 

Next.

This poll was conducted last month. The Tories have led in the shambles stakes so far this month, so that poll is already out of date.

A truly shining example I think of the need to read through the headline and spin to the underlying facts - and how many just do as Chris has done and taken this at face value.