I have read that the reaction to the protests will favour him because it'll get him votes in his electoral base being strict on law and order while the people protesting are in big liberal cities with democratic governors who won't vote for him anyway. Be interesting to see how it all works out in November, we all know he will do anything to regain power which could be scary!

Good jobs and economic figues announced today in the US with 3.5 million nore in employment. Great news if it continues for Trump's re-election. What did Bush Sr. say? "It's the economy stupid"

The number of people out of work in the US has soared in the last few months, largely due to a total lack of any help from Trump's administration.

Good jobs and economic figues announced today in the US with 3.5 million nore in employment. Great news if it continues for Trump's re-election. What did Bush Sr. say? "It's the economy stupid"

 

@1269091899140378624

 

Unemployment actually went up.

Joe Biden is now officially the Democratic candidate for President.

 

If ever there was a year that a 3rd Party candidate could have a good shot at winning a few states, this year is it.

Sadly the Libertarian candidate isn't Vermin Supreme or I'd have backed you up there. They've gone for Jo Jorgensen, a previously pretty unknown psychology professor, I suppose the fact she's a woman could help a bit, but I still don't think it's likely they or the Greens will do anything outside of get above 5% in a state or two.

 

The whole NeverTrump thing is going to be a major part of Biden's campaign, I expect further polarisation.

If Bernie ran as a 3rd party candidate I do think he would clinch a few states, albeit not enough to win. His runs for the Democratic nomination has always been more pragmatic than anything else - he only joins the party when he runs, then flips back to an Independent afterwards. A 3rd party candidate from the other direction could also stand a chance if they've got name recognition. Justin Amash, a former Republican congressman who left the party in protest over Trump briefly flirted with the Libertarian nomination before declining to stand.

 

A strong 3rd party result could demonstrate that there is an appetite for politics beyond the 2 party system in the States, which is something that I regard as unhealthy, although I can't see it happening this time around. There are quite a few other smaller 3rd parties standing besides the Libertarians & Greens. Probably the party I most associate with is the American Solidarity Party, its distributism is probably the closest to matching my own political thoughts than any other party in the US.

 

Sadly the Libertarian candidate isn't Vermin Supreme or I'd have backed you up there.

 

Vermin Supreme, that's the weirdest name for a potential presidential candidate since Newt Gingrich. Still don't know why the sensible sounding Newton Gingrich shortened his first name to an aquatic amphibian.

Sadly the Libertarian candidate isn't Vermin Supreme or I'd have backed you up there. They've gone for Jo Jorgensen, a previously pretty unknown psychology professor, I suppose the fact she's a woman could help a bit, but I still don't think it's likely they or the Greens will do anything outside of get above 5% in a state or two.

 

The whole NeverTrump thing is going to be a major part of Biden's campaign, I expect further polarisation.

I thought Vermin Supreme already was president :mellow:

Vermin Supreme (the real one, accept no alternatives) is a delight! Yes, he wears a boot on his head and performatively does a lot of stuff us Brits would compare with ineffectual Monster Raving Loonyism ('a dictator you can trust' was one of his slogans) presumably to get attention but I've seen him talk and he's pretty much a libertarian socialist with some strong activist and inclusivity credentials. Had he been the nominee I do genuinely think he could have picked up enough of the Bernie voters plus some anti-governmental Republicans to give the Libertarian party a base, it would have started out with joke coverage but if people figured him out beyond that it could have had traction. Right libertarianism that that party normally presides over is never going anywhere because when the chips are down these 'rugged individualists' always get enticed back by conservative parties lowering taxes, but with a bit of unity across economic aisles, perhaps.

 

Anyway, Vermin's running mate, Spike Cohen, who seems to have literally named himself after the dragon from My Little Pony, has turned up to be the actual Libertarian Party VP pick, so something of Vermin's views might come through on their platform.

 

(yes the Libertarian party is one continuous meme)

I thought Vermin Supreme already was president :mellow:

 

 

How nasty - but made me laugh anyway. :rofl:

If ever there was a year that a 3rd Party candidate could have a good shot at winning a few states, this year is it.

What makes you think that? I'm all for dismantling the two party system but this is perhaps the least likely election for this to happen?

 

* Around 80% of likely voters are enthusiastic about voting for their chosen candidate, which is a historically high figure.

 

* In 2016, a significant 20% chunk of voters disliked both Clinton and Trump. I can't find the equivalent percentage this year, but in any case it will only be known after the election as turnout for these voters is extremely unreliable. But we do know that Biden's favourability among voters and non-voters alike is running about 10% higher than Clinton's, as is Trump's (Trump is a historically unpopular incumbent but is still more popular than he was before the 2016 election, when he hadn't fully captured the Republican Party!).

 

* Even with so many people disliking both main candidates, 2016's third party votes barely made 5%. My hunch is that doesn't matter how much ideological space there is for a third party candidate to break through - it's not something prioritised this year when most voters's focus is on either stopping Trump or keeping him in.

 

Justin Amash, who has a much bigger profile than any other likely third party candidates, has already dropped out because of issues like this.

 

Since my boycott of US politics is failing, I'm gonna read up and find out when third party candidates can be moderately successful, such as in 1992. We already know that the environment in 1992 was nothing like this one, however.

Edited June 6, 20205 yr by Harve

If Bernie ran as a 3rd party candidate I do think he would clinch a few states, albeit not enough to win.

 

 

I don't think he'd clinch any states. May get quite a few votes in certain ones though,

He won't be running and has already endorsed Biden anyway. If I remember rightly, Democrat primary candidates have to swear not to run as third party/independent candidates if they fail to clinch the Democrat nomination.

Approval rating in June of election year.

 

 

74% - Johnson '64

71% - Eisenhower '56

59% - Nixon '72

58% - Clinton '96

55% - Reagan '84

52% - Obama '12

49% - W Bush '04

45% - *Ford '76

38% - Trump '20

38% - *Carter '80

37% - *HW Bush '92

 

*lost re-election bid

 

Seems like Trump's in some trouble.

 

KEY FACTS

 

The poll of 1,003 adults, conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute, found that Trump’s favorability is down 16 points from March to 41%, versus 55% who view him unfavorably.

 

Trump’s favorability dropped by 6 points among Republicans and 7 points among independents, while it dropped by 10 points in both Republican and battleground states.

 

The poll also found Trump losing significant ground among the religious groups that comprise his core base, including white evangelical Protestants, white mainline Protestants and white Catholics, with whom his favorability dropped by double digits.

 

Trump’s favorability dropped by 19 points to 47% among white non-college educated Americans, a group he won 67% support from in 2016, according to the New York Times exit poll.

 

The only place the poll shows Trump making gains is with white college graduates, whose favorability of him ticked up 3 points, while he held steady with nonwhite Protestants at 40% favorability.

Trump support slipping away. From CNN. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/08/politics...week/index.html

 

As protesters gather daily near the White House and the coronavirus pandemic rages on, the American public is souring on President Donald Trump. A new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS finds Trump's approval rating down 7 points in the last month as the President falls further behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, whose support now stands at its highest level in CNN polling.

 

The survey also finds a growing majority of Americans feel racism is a big problem in the country today and that the criminal justice system in America favors whites over blacks. More than 8 in 10 also say that the peaceful protests that have spread throughout the nation following the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police officers are justified. Americans now consider race relations as important a campaign issue as the economy and health care, according to the survey.

 

Overall 38% approve of the way Trump is handling the presidency, while 57% disapprove. That's his worst approval rating since January 2019, and roughly on par with approval ratings for Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years. Both went on to lose the presidency after one term.

 

In the race for the White House, among registered voters, Trump stands 14 points behind Biden, who officially secured enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination in CNN's delegate estimate on Saturday. The 41% who say they back the President is the lowest in CNN's tracking on this question back to April 2019, and Biden's 55% support is his highest mark yet.

 

The result comes amid a week in which Trump's response to protests outside the White House led to condemnation from some fellow Republicans and a rebuke from former Defense Secretary James Mattis, who served under the President.

 

The poll finds the public broadly disapproves of Trump's handling of race relations (63% disapprove), and 65% say the President's response to recent protests has been more harmful than helpful.

 

A broad majority of Americans say the peaceful protests happening all across the country after police violence against African Americans are justified (84% say so), and roughly a quarter (27%) say violent protests in response to police harming or killing African Americans are justified. Both figures are higher than they were when similar protests rose in the fall of 2016. Then, 67% saw peaceful protests as justified while 14% felt violent protests were.

Or as Trump would say - 'Fake News'!

From BBC News:

 

Attendees at Donald Trump's election rally in Tulsa next week are asked to sign a waiver over the coronavirus.

They are asked to promise they will not sue the president or organisers if they catch the virus by attending.

Come on folks. Not too long to go now. Am I the only one interested still? Trump's by no means a shoe-in according to the US press and columnists.

 

Some State polls out today have Biden within the margin in Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri, and ahead in Iowa.

 

The first three are considered solid red states with Iowa being likely.

 

If Biden is genuinely competitive in states like these then that's pretty bad news for Trump. :(

 

 

However most bookies still make Trump the favourite to win.

Edited June 14, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris