A predictable response.

The irony.

Just semantics - they *act* nationalist though.

 

But it's not semantics it's fact.

 

They represent the people of Scotland as opposed to the conservatives!!

But it's not semantics it's fact.

 

They represent the people of Scotland as opposed to the conservatives!!

 

The Express has suggested that the SNP agreed to a Dec election due to fears that the forthcoming trial of Alex Salmond would reflect badly on the party. :thinking:

The express has suggested it has no basis in fact for everything that appears in its paper below the date

Should Scotland be allowed another referendum topic here in the Scotland forum

 

http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...p;#entry6489490

Latest Panelbase independence poll:

 

Yes: 50%

No: 43%

Don't Know: 7%

 

Excluding DK:

Yes: 54%

No: 46%

 

Pls stretch that 8 point gap further.

Edited June 21, 20205 yr by Harve

That’s got to be a record for Indy right? There was a 59% poll straight after the EU Ref but that had dodgy methodology iirc.

 

BRING IT ON

The SNP HAS to get a poll before 2025 imo to make this happen, the tories of course will fight tooth and nail to stop it. After 2025 and it may be too late.

I made a prediction at the start of 2020 that by the end of this decade Scotland would be independent - I stand by that statement.

The only problem is, the Tories are adamant they won’t budge. The new Scottish secretary is particularly vile as well. Even if the SNP win a majority of the votes next year I just can’t see them giving us a referendum. It’s just so undemocratic and disgusting

 

As a passionate independence supporter, there is a part of me that worries if the Scottish people keep giving a second referendum mandate after mandate, and keep giving SNP manifestos which have a second referendum majorities of seats and possibly votes and the Tories are serious about not having a referendum for decades (the Scottish secretary said there wouldn’t be a referendum in Nicola Sturgeon’s lifetime) that there might end up being some sort of civil conflict. I’m talking decades down the line btw, and I’m not saying the UK government will go down the line of the Spain and beat up old grannies trying to vote but if democracy keeps being denied who knows what will happen.

That’s got to be a record for Indy right? There was a 59% poll straight after the EU Ref but that had dodgy methodology iirc.

 

BRING IT ON

It’s the highest % for Yes when don’t knows are included. Ever.

 

 

We’ve never hit the halfway mark with don’t knows before.

 

 

 

 

It feels like a tide is turning. Independence will come, especially when Dom realises it will be easier for them to gerrymander a win in 2024 without the Scottish seats. I was on FaceTime with my folks when they read the news and there was barely even a grumble from them

On a somewhat side note, it's interesting to note the differences between any call for a Referendum between Northern Ireland (for Irish reunification) and Scottish independence. For NI, there is specific legislation regarding any independence polls, which are to be held when the Secretary of State believes there is a majority in favour of it (noting that if such a referendum was to fail, it could not be held for another seven years), whilst I am not aware of any specific legislation regarding this for Scotland. I'd note however if it followed the NI model, then it wouldn't be able to be held until 19th September 2021 at the very earliest.

 

I do think that there will be an indyref before the end of the decade, and I think that if it isn't given to Scotland by decree of consent within the next few years then I can see major civil unrest within Scotland until Westminister acquiesces to one.

Realistically mid-2022 is the earliest date we can get one. Corona writes off 2020 and then we have Holyrood elections early 2021 that will take precedence with the SNP probably going on an explicit mandate like “Vote SNP for Indyref2 so we can rebuild a better, fairer Scotland in the EU”. From then with legislative processes earliest we got is a good 12-15 months later.

 

 

I think depending on what London does, if there needs to be a court process we might be looking at 2024 instead

Tories will only grant referendums they think they will win.

 

It was a major Own goal for SF to agree to let the British SOS decide on an order poll in Ireland.

I doubt there will be a poll under the current government. Especially given the current situation with Covid-19 and the potential economic fallout from it later this year (when the furlough scheme ends). I'm also interested to see how the campaign goes and the economic plan for an independent Scotland. The economic agrument revolving around oil is no longer valid given the big price drops and the liklihood of supressed oil prices long-term due to the increased investment in and competitiveness of green technologies.

Edited June 22, 20205 yr by Envoirment

One thing the English always forget is that we don’t need oil. The reason that unionist press focus on it is to distract from the realities that Scotland has an abundance of other natural resources, namely green electric and water. Scotland produces more electricity than it consumes, England doesn’t produce enough. Scotland has the vast majority of the UKs fresh water supply.

 

England kinda sorta can’t function as a basic society without our water and our excess electric. Water is a public utility and revenue from supplying England doesn’t sit in the GERS figures. (Which do include shit like HS2, Crossrail and Trident. None of which Scotland wants, needs or derives benefit from but still pay for)

Support for Scottish Independence and the SNP grows to record highs:

 

Great news, but I don't just want independence to do well in the polls, I want to be able to see it happening and with the Tories and Labour (:')) firmly opposed to a referendum in all circumstances, even if the SNP win a majority of votes next year, how will it happen? It's no in Boris' interests to grant a Section 30 order, he's very much a yoon of the highest order and it wouldn't go down well with his party at all if he changed his mind. The SNP still haven't told us their 'Plan B' for a referendum if the Tories don't give us one.

One option would be for the SNP to say that they would interpret a vote share above 50% in the Holyrood election as a mandate to go ahead and declare independence without a referendum. I don't think the devolution settlement made independence conditional on a referendum so it could end up in lengthy legal dispute.

One option would be for the SNP to say that they would interpret a vote share above 50% in the Holyrood election as a mandate to go ahead and declare independence without a referendum. I don't think the devolution settlement made independence conditional on a referendum so it could end up in lengthy legal dispute.

 

I don't think that's the right way to go and certainly if they did that, I don't think they will get another independence referendum. My thoughts are I think Scotland will get another independence referendum, but it is going to be 2023 or even 2024. I think you just have to be slightly realistic. At the end of the day it is in Wales/Norther Ireland and England's favour that the United Kingdom stays together, so of course they are not going to bend over backwards and grant an independence referendum when A) one was as recent as 5 years ago and B) it is likely they will lose. They will only grant one when they think they have a shot at winning or there is a lot of political pressure.

 

Personally I would love Scotland to stay part of the United Kingdom and I am sceptical about a lot of the SNP's forecasting but I also feel that the goalposts have changed since we left the EU so I am not against the idea and if they voted for independence I'd also wish them the best of luck and hope that a great relationship could be forged. But my fear is if we have the Tories in charge it would be a very bad break-up.