May 16May 16 Super weird dynamic in this by-election because voting Labour is likely to result in deposing the unpopular Labour prime minister. A Reform win is the most likely result that somehow keeps Keir Starmer in office?! I have no idea how Reform campaign or how Reform-minded voters make a decision. Given that it's likely to be portrayed more as a vote against Keir Starmer and for Andy Burnham then I think it's a Labour win. If it's seen as a vote for or against Labour then it will not go well for Labour.I think the result might therefore overstate the Andy Burnham effect who does have a personal vote but under normal circumstances is not strong enough to overpower headwinds against an unpopular government in a seat that's quite Reform-friendly. Starmer's unpopularity will be irrelevant in the future.
May 21May 21 Author Saw someone saying the other day that the best thing Keir Starmer could do in the by-election is go and canvass in Makerfield, telling the voters that "a vote for Andy Burnham is a vote of confidence in me". Looks like he's going to do just that. If Burnham wins, he can take the credit for it. If he loses, then Keir can keep going for another year. BBC NewsStarmer says he will campaign for Burnham in MakerfieldThe prime minister says Labour needs to "all pull together and fight", after a revolt against his leadership.
June 4Jun 4 Good to see after watching QT tonight Burnham should beat that Reform candidate - worst speaker I’ve ever saw on the programme.
June 5Jun 5 7 hours ago, Steve201 said:Good to see after watching QT tonight Burnham should beat that Reform candidate - worst speaker I’ve ever saw on the programme.So going by how messed up the UK is, Reform will no doubt win
June 5Jun 5 1 hour ago, ElectroBoy said:So going by how messed up the UK is, Reform will no doubt winMaybe but this guy was terrible so inarticulate and his answers were like a 6th former at school, Burnham didn’t even attack him much he kinda prob felt sorry for him. Out of his depth.
June 5Jun 5 5 minutes ago, Steve201 said:Maybe but this guy was terrible so inarticulate and his answers were like a 6th former at school, Burnham didn’t even attack him much he kinda prob felt sorry for him. Out of his depth.I know; he's awful. Unfortunately that's where Britain is at - supporting these horrific people.Hopefully Burnham does win, however my view on the general public atm is exceedingly low.
June 5Jun 5 Fair enough, from the QT audience lastnyt if that’s a sample then the seat will most certainly be Labour easily enough. There’s still people who are cynical at the mainstream politicans and that’s fair enough they and Burnham won’t change things but they won’t go Reform here nor in 2029 imo, people are tired of them blaming everything on immigrants.
June 5Jun 5 Oddswise, Burnham is now as low as 1/5 to win the by-election.Reform now out to 4/1 Edited June 5Jun 5 by ElectroBoy
June 11Jun 11 Author There's one week until the Makerfield by-election. For reference, here are the candidates running in the by-election:Jake Austin – Liberal DemocratsCount Binface – Count Binface PartyAndy Burnham – Labour and Co-operative PartyDan Clarke – Libertarian PartyJohn Dyer – IndependentEd Gemmell – Climate PartyPaul Gould – IndependentAlan "Howlin" Laud Hope – The Official Monster Raving Loony PartyRobert Kenyon – Reform UKRobert Pownall – IndependentRebecca Shepherd – Restore BritainSarah Wakefield – Green PartyPeter Ward – Rejoin EUMichael Winstanley – Conservative and Unionist PartyAs expected, given the high profile of this by-election, there is a massive slate of candidates hoping to take advantage of the added attention they are likely to get; outside of the usual suspects there's the Libertarians, Monster Raving Loonies, Rejoin EU (whose raison d'etre is a mystery), and the absolutely hilarious Count Binface. Under normal circumstances this would be a slam dunk Reform seat if it wasn't for the presence of Andrew Murray Burnham on the slate (although of course, there wouldn't have been a by-election here at all if it weren't for the presence of Mr Andrew Murray Burnham). The Brett-Butler Prognosticator 4000 gives this one to Labour and Andy Burnham with a narrow victory (although what Andy Burnham we get post 19th we will see).Given the high profile of this by-election, it's easy to forget that there are two other parliamentary by-elections in Scotland on the same day to replace SNP politicians who were elected to the Scottish parliament. The support acts are as follows - Aberdeen South - Nurul Hoque Ali – Scottish Labour PartyDavid Ballantine – Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (ADF)Jo Hart – Reform UKDouglas Lumsden – Scottish Conservative and UnionistJorg Shelton-Eckstein – Scottish Green PartyMel Sullivan – Scottish Liberal DemocratsRichard Gordon Thomson – Scottish National Party (SNP)Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Tanvir Ahmad – Scottish Liberal DemocratsLara Bird – Scottish National Party (SNP)Jack Cruickshanks – Scottish Conservative and Unionist PartyHeather Doran – Scottish Labour PartyBill Reid – Reform UKI would have put both of these down as solid SNP holds if it wasn't for the public learning that Nicola Sturgeon has a special medical condition causing her to not see caravans parked in her garden. The SNP's majorities weren't massive in either of these, so both of these will end up tight. I'm predicting a shock loss in Aberdeen South to the Conservatives, and a hold in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, courtesy of the good voters in Battenberg Road, D11, Arbroath.
June 11Jun 11 2 hours ago, Brett-Butler said:There's one week until the Makerfield by-election. For reference, here are the candidates running in the by-election:Jake Austin – Liberal DemocratsCount Binface – Count Binface PartyAndy Burnham – Labour and Co-operative PartyDan Clarke – Libertarian PartyJohn Dyer – IndependentEd Gemmell – Climate PartyPaul Gould – IndependentAlan "Howlin" Laud Hope – The Official Monster Raving Loony PartyRobert Kenyon – Reform UKRobert Pownall – IndependentRebecca Shepherd – Restore BritainSarah Wakefield – Green PartyPeter Ward – Rejoin EUMichael Winstanley – Conservative and Unionist PartyAs expected, given the high profile of this by-election, there is a massive slate of candidates hoping to take advantage of the added attention they are likely to get; outside of the usual suspects there's the Libertarians, Monster Raving Loonies, Rejoin EU (whose raison d'etre is a mystery), and the absolutely hilarious Count Binface.Under normal circumstances this would be a slam dunk Reform seat if it wasn't for the presence of Andrew Murray Burnham on the slate (although of course, there wouldn't have been a by-election here at all if it weren't for the presence of Mr Andrew Murray Burnham). The Brett-Butler Prognosticator 4000 gives this one to Labour and Andy Burnham with a narrow victory (although what Andy Burnham we get post 19th we will see).Given the high profile of this by-election, it's easy to forget that there are two other parliamentary by-elections in Scotland on the same day to replace SNP politicians who were elected to the Scottish parliament. The support acts are as follows -Aberdeen South -Nurul Hoque Ali – Scottish Labour PartyDavid Ballantine – Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (ADF)Jo Hart – Reform UKDouglas Lumsden – Scottish Conservative and UnionistJorg Shelton-Eckstein – Scottish Green PartyMel Sullivan – Scottish Liberal DemocratsRichard Gordon Thomson – Scottish National Party (SNP)Arbroath and Broughty Ferry -Tanvir Ahmad – Scottish Liberal DemocratsLara Bird – Scottish National Party (SNP)Jack Cruickshanks – Scottish Conservative and Unionist PartyHeather Doran – Scottish Labour PartyBill Reid – Reform UKI would have put both of these down as solid SNP holds if it wasn't for the public learning that Nicola Sturgeon has a special medical condition causing her to not see caravans parked in her garden. The SNP's majorities weren't massive in either of these, so both of these will end up tight. I'm predicting a shock loss in Aberdeen South to the Conservatives, and a hold in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, courtesy of the good voters in Battenberg Road, D11, Arbroath.Battenberg Road seems like your dream address
June 13Jun 13 I'll be glad when this is all over, sick of the door knocking and countless leaflets! Apparently you cant walk into town without a camera and mic put in your face either, glad I dont go out much 😅
June 13Jun 13 Author 2 minutes ago, troublepink said:I'll be glad when this is all over, sick of the door knocking and countless leaflets!Apparently you cant walk into town without a camera and mic put in your face either, glad I dont go out much 😅Are you in Makerfield at the moment, or Scotland? What are your thoughts on who will win in your constituency?
June 13Jun 13 Just now, Brett-Butler said:Are you in Makerfield at the moment, or Scotland? What are your thoughts on who will win in your constituency?Im in makerfield. Im unsure who ill vote for yet, but ive ruled a few out who I won't be voting for. I always keep who I vote for private too before anyone asks, I don't know why... my parents always did, they never even tell each other who they vote for! 😅 so I guess that's a habit ive picked up from them. I think andy will win, and I think reform and restore will split the vote for him to win it. Apparently local Facebook groups are reporting that there has been a huge turn out for restore in town today, and other parties are out and about too. One person in a Facebook group said they were all a 'disgrace' and were all 'arguing and shouting' with each other.
June 13Jun 13 Does sound like it tracks with Restore, aghast at them actually having any form of real-world relevance, though I am also continually aghast at Reform so w/e, go split the vote
June 14Jun 14 On 11/06/2026 at 19:38, Brett-Butler said:I would have put both of these down as solid SNP holds if it wasn't for the public learning that Nicola Sturgeon has a special medical condition causing her to not see caravans parked in her garden. I’d be a lot more f***in concerned if she was seeing a campervan that was actually parked in Fife on the opposite coast of the country in her garden. The First minister hallucinating would’ve been a bit of a problem.It’s nice to see so many people and the press be normal about all of this and hound the wife for the husbands crimes. If only the press had put 1% of this effort into harassing Baroness Michelle Mone who made off with 100m in public money for fake PPE. Anyway. Scotland votes differently at Westminster vs Holyrood. I’d slate them both as holds tbh
June 14Jun 14 Indeed ^^ we always knew the unionist press would be desperate to take the snp down somehow.
June 17Jun 17 Odds for Makerfield1/6 Labour (although as low as 1/25 with some bookies)13/2 Reform (although around 5/1 with some bookies)30/1 Restore (around 20/1 for most bookies)1000/1 The Rest
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