Ajanaeda not even Top 20?!! @CowTzy

Edited Saturday at 12:174 days by Addy!

I made a code that takes into account voting patterns in the past dozen contests and how likely each country is to vote for each of the finalists (taking into consideration multiple factors, but none of them to do with the quality of the entries), and according to my calculations we'll be heading to Danæviia next month so a preliminary congratulations Dan from the Bureau of Statistics in Nelson, Baleghde! I'll be happy to share the complete vote table after the results have been revealed so everyone can see how far off the prediction was lmao.

1 Danaeviia 257

2 Terra Avium 253

3 Kluminican Republic 242

4 Republique dAskorza 237

5 Fljotavik 235

6 Nelionoir 222

7 Jadakissnia 220

8 Altyr Muunilinst 211

9 Greenfroze 209

10 Hendinia 203

11 Skall 196

12 Sandenia 195

13 Trifoski 185

14 Eledan 180

15 Kathaldazia 177

16 FSR Rontvia 170

17 Summericia 169

18 Land of DW 164

19 Ajanaeda 163

20 Aeroche 158

21 FARC 156

22 Cumulonimbia 155

23 Taahino 155

24 Aesthetica 152

25 POPHub 149

26 Cheiron 138

27 Cor Lupus 127

28 Mothertopia 126

29 Why So Sirius 126

30 Aelandor 124

31 Flynnonda 122

32 Thelonia 120

33 Bronzil 118

34 Pestolia 116

35 A-Konohagakure 115

36 New Lexico 113

37 Lotunia 111

38 Utopia 106

39 Zanmatony 100

40 Suedeonia 55

41 Herbilore 42

Does this code not mean we'd get roughly the same results every contest?

would be amazing if that indeed right, though Ajanaeda seem the clear frontrunners to me so not sure how your formula has them so low as 19th?

4 minutes ago, RobBot said:

Does this code not mean we'd get roughly the same results every contest?

Naur, it all depends on which countries are voting and which countries are eligible to be voted for. Also would probably change if I add in more data from older contests lol.

5 minutes ago, danG said:

would be amazing if that indeed right, though Ajanaeda seem the clear frontrunners to me so not sure how your formula has them so low as 19th?

The formula has them at 19th because it doesn't take into consideration any hype or the quality of the song. Just voting data from BJSC 165 to 176.

It's obviously never going to be perfect as there are always going to be factors that any formula is unable to foresee, but it's interesting to see how likely each country is to vote for each other. I'll just say some of y'all have interesting voting patterns

What I find most weird about that list is that we're in an era where it predicted Aeroche only 20th on that basis of style of calculation

Interesting though - thanks for sharing it

2 hours ago, Addy! said:

Ajanaeda not even Top 20?!! @CowTzy

Top 25, surely!

contrary to what others wrote idt ajanaeda will take this one as the cross appeal is defo not as much as infohazard for sure 👀

9 minutes ago, uhsting said:

contrary to what others wrote idt ajanaeda will take this one as the cross appeal is defo not as much as infohazard for sure 👀

Don’t think it’s going to be an ‘Infohazard’ runaway moment, but should soak up pop bloc and then enough elsewhere to win. It’s giving Rebecca Black 👀

Wouldn’t be surprised to see FLJ or AER with the crossover hit though

I've consulted with the ever trusty ChatGPT and this is what they had to say:

🔥 Top Contenders (serious win potential)

1. Danæviia • Levi.Sct • Technotude

   • Still the most “on-trend” dance-leaning, glitchy banger.

   • Strong alignment with Ninajirachi / Amelie Lens winners.

2. Aeroche • sim0ne • space cadet

   • Boosted for nostalgia: dreamy Y2K/trance-tinged alt-pop feel, right in the sweet spot between pop & dance.

   • Nostalgic but modern → very BJSC-friendly.

3. Ajanaeda • Nuovo Testamento • Dream On

   • Boosted for nostalgia: pure Italo disco revival, hits the retro note cleanly.

   • Could resonate like Debbii Dawson or Annalisa did.

4. Altyr Muunilinst • Krewella • Crying On The Dancefloor

   • Dance-pop with “crying in the club” tones → emotional pull plus uptempo.

5. Sandénia • LØLØ • omg

   • Pop-punk revival, very trendy.

   • Similar crossover appeal to Rebecca Black’s “Twist The Knife.”

🚀 High Final Potential (likely top 10)

6. Jadakissnia • S1RENA • DNA 1NTERLUDE / DNA

   • Ambitious electropop/dance hybrid.

   • Structure & drama could still pull strong votes.

7. Kathaldazia • MERCY • POSSESSION

   • Dark industrial banger, has a retro/goth club edge.

   • Stands out as the “edgy nostalgia” choice.

8. Neliönoir • Night Tapes • storm

   • Boosted for nostalgia: hazy, retro-tinged alt-electropop.

   • If it’s more beat-driven than ambient, big potential.

9. Taahino • Ashnikko • Trinkets

   • Y2K chaotic alt-pop vibes, nostalgic in its own way.

   • Ashnikko’s name adds extra attention.

10. Cor Lupus • Tsatsamis • Sweet Praise

• Depending on arrangement, could lean anthemic/retro in its soundscape.

⚡ Dark Horses (could break top 10)

11. Hendinia • Frost Children • WHAT IS FOREVER FOR

• Hyperpop with retro-club aesthetics. Risky but could land big.

12. Fljótavík • Joon Gloom • Joker

• Dark indie with potential nostalgic 90s/2000s edge.

13. FSR Rontvia • ARGO • Korku

• Darkwave electronic → fits with darker 80s vibes.

14. Summericia • Avery Cochrane • Shapeshifting On A Saturday Night

• Boosted for nostalgia: title + disco influence screams retro fun.

• Execution will decide if it’s kitsch mid-board or sneaky high scorer.

15. Cumulonimbia • Deki Alem • House Fire

• Fusion track → could ride momentum if energetic.

📊 Big Picture Observations

• Dance/Electro bangers dominate (7–8 tracks). Recent winners suggest at least one of these takes it.

• Pop-punk/rock crossovers are strong (Ashnikko, LØLØ, Deki Alem) — this is the next strongest bloc because of recent ALT BLK ERA’s win.

• Retro/Disco bloc is thinner this month, but Ajanaeda could ride the nostalgia trend.

• Indie/alt & darkwave entries are plenty, but likely competing for smaller vote pockets.

• Uniqueness factor:

  • Best “unique lane” = Sandénia (pop-punk anthem), Altyr (EDM crying bop), Hendinia (hyperpop/club chaos).

However just to provide a little relief to anyone finding themselves around the bottom in my prediction that it was quite far off with the semis - especially semi 2 where 2 of the actual DNQ's are in the Top 10 lmao:

Semi 1 Prediction:
1 Terra Avium 112

2 Kluminican Republic 92

3 Macromia 85

4 Hendinia 84

5 Jadakissnia 79

6 Greenfroze 69

7 Cor Lupus 68

8 Sandenia 68

9 Kathaldazia 67

10 Skall 67

11 Scotland 2 65

12 Land of DW 65

13 POPHub 62

14 Eledan 62

15 Aesthetica 57

16 Thelonia 56

17 Taahino 53

18 Why So Sirius 51

19 Dobago 47

20 Bronzil 45

21 Lookylion 45

22 Cheiron 42

23 Seyetana 40

24 A-Konohagakure 36

25 Flynnonda 31

26 Jupiterdonia 18

Macromia, what happened

Semi 2 Prediction:

1 Altyr Muunilinst 102

2 Danaeviia 101

3 Republique d'Askorza 98

4 Nelionoir 87

5 Cumulonimbia 80

6 Yehesi 79

7 Ajanaeda 71

8 Summericia 71

9 Botanikka 68

10 Pestolia 68

11 Trifoski 67

12 Aeroche 66

13 FARC 65

14 Mothertopia 58

15 Persephonia 55

16 New Lexico 55

17 Hushkanukia 51

18 Zanmatony 50

19 FSR Rontvia 49

20 Aelandor 47

21 Lotunia 46

22 Baleghde 43

23 Utopia 36

24 Herbilore 26

25 Suedeonia 18

26 East Rukahavian 9

Gives me a lil relief that clearly according to my formula I was never destined to qualify from this semi lmao.

Everybody vote for Zanmatony to disrupt the prediction algorithms and let's get us a hit!

Summericia seem to be the best choice for winner this month, followed by Neliönoir.

I love data. Interesting to see how that clashes with preconceived biases of how the voting goes, like say I only have 1 NQ (not counting this one) in that contest range, which is pretty excellent for me, and yet I'm still destined to NQ out of this semi based on past voting patterns, unless my base is just completely shallow or my focus on my own results blinds me that the average vote received was just better for so many other countries. That sample definitely favouring countries with recent big successes, as it naturally would, though Ajanaeda do look low despite that given their winner is in this range and I'm pretty sure they had a couple of other successes too.

On actual song quality/hype I feel Kathaldazia seems a good one for electronic fans to rally behind and Summericia seems like a pretty safe pop consensus.

I'll take the delusion Rob and little miss muffin are offering

I definitely do not feel as widely voted for as those results suggest x

surprised I’m getting as many top 10 predictions as I am considering the extremely muted listenthrough reaction 😅 still keeping expectations really low

I'm team ChatGPT

Cheiron to ChatGPT:

6 hours ago, diva thin muffin said:

I made a code that takes into account voting patterns in the past dozen contests and how likely each country is to vote for each of the finalists (taking into consideration multiple factors, but none of them to do with the quality of the entries), and according to my calculations we'll be heading to Danæviia next month so a preliminary congratulations Dan from the Bureau of Statistics in Nelson, Baleghde! I'll be happy to share the complete vote table after the results have been revealed so everyone can see how far off the prediction was lmao.

1 Danaeviia 257

2 Terra Avium 253

3 Kluminican Republic 242

4 Republique dAskorza 237

5 Fljotavik 235

6 Nelionoir 222

7 Jadakissnia 220

8 Altyr Muunilinst 211

9 Greenfroze 209

10 Hendinia 203

11 Skall 196

12 Sandenia 195

13 Trifoski 185

14 Eledan 180

15 Kathaldazia 177

16 FSR Rontvia 170

17 Summericia 169

18 Land of DW 164

19 Ajanaeda 163

20 Aeroche 158

21 FARC 156

22 Cumulonimbia 155

23 Taahino 155

24 Aesthetica 152

25 POPHub 149

26 Cheiron 138

27 Cor Lupus 127

28 Mothertopia 126

29 Why So Sirius 126

30 Aelandor 124

31 Flynnonda 122

32 Thelonia 120

33 Bronzil 118

34 Pestolia 116

35 A-Konohagakure 115

36 New Lexico 113

37 Lotunia 111

38 Utopia 106

39 Zanmatony 100

40 Suedeonia 55

41 Herbilore 42

Rd‘Á in the top 5 is evidence enough there’s an error somewhere in there 😅

I'm gonna predict it's POPHub vs. Neliönoir vs. Ajanaeda this month. I think all 3 will get quite big appeal.