YouGov MRP poll has a Tory majority of 68 (Tories 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Lib Dems on just 13). About what I was expecting really.

 

I think this isn't exactly how it'll look on the 13th!

 

Friday 13th will be unlucky for the many...

Edited November 27, 20195 yr by Steve201

Oh DEAR at the Lib Dems in particular!

 

SURGING up one seat since the last election!

 

I think this isn't exactly how it'll look on the 13th!

 

Friday 13th will be unlucky for the many...

 

I think the Tories' majority will probably go down a bit (watch it now go up!) but there isn't enough time to deprive them of a majority entirely unfortunately.

Hope so!

Why is that btw?

 

 

No idea but that's what the polling experts say.

SURGING up one seat since the last election!

 

Technically a loss of 8 seats since they have 21 at the moment.

No idea but that's what the polling experts say.

 

I don't know the details but thinknits due to the populations within the constituencies, I'm sure DB or Brett will know the detailed answer.

YouGov MRP poll has a Tory majority of 68 (Tories 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Lib Dems on just 13). About what I was expecting really.

 

 

That would be fine. Huge majorities of 100+ aren't needed anyway. Just a decent majority to see Brexit through.

Looking forward to being able to dig down into the data on that. From my maths, excluding NI & the speaker, there are 5 seats unaccounted for. I'm guessing 4 Plaid & 1 Green (which means nothing for the Ashfield Indies).

I don't know the details but thinknits due to the populations within the constituencies, I'm sure DB or Brett will know the detailed answer.

 

 

It's still possible for them to get an overall majority on a 7% lead but any lower and it's another hung parliament. I bow to the superior knowledge of John Curtice and other polling experts.

Looking forward to being able to dig down into the data on that. From my maths, excluding NI & the speaker, there are 5 seats unaccounted for. I'm guessing 4 Plaid & 1 Green (which means nothing for the Ashfield Indies).

 

That's right - I didn't include them in my post as it didn't feel relevant but it does say that in the source I got the figures from.

 

The MRP poll last time did have an independent winning a seat (somewhere in Cornwall iirc?) but that didn't end up coming to fruition obviously. I'd guess those are harder for the model to predict as they wouldn't follow any national trends.

Well, that is a little more than I expected but still not very surprising. How depressing.

 

That potential Lib Dem performance is pitiful.

I am a bit surprised that the SNP weren't higher - suggests that Tories are possibly holding in Scotland (Unionist vote quite sticky?)

 

The Lib Dems absolutely wrecked their solid position with the ridiculous Revoke Article 50 policy, I've heard many people who were wavering that way (Remain voters) put off by it. *

 

*That and propping up the Tories for 5 years of austerity and completely screwing us over wrt Tuition Fees

God that's a depressing sight :(

Hmmm I wonder if the NHS papers will change anything - I mean depending on when the poll was carried out etc.

 

TBH given what was indicated before vs what happened, the poll trackers mean very little

Yay, the data's now there. Bolsover is being predicted for the Conservatives, although I think they may have underestimated Ashfield Indies (only given them 10% at most), and think that the Conservatives will win that seat, which given their candidate's comments, doesn't seem right.

YouGov MRP poll has a Tory majority of 68 (Tories 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Lib Dems on just 13). About what I was expecting really.

 

359 seats gives a majority of 34, not 68? (52 if you exclude NI seats).

 

It's honestly not as big of a majority as I thought would be projected. All it'll take is 2-3% swing to make a hung parliament. Given that momentum is currently on Labour's side, I feel that's where we're headed.

Latest Savanta ComRes:

 

CON 41% (-1)

LAB 34% (+2)

LD 13% (+1)

BRX 5% (-)

Other 7% (-)

 

25th - 26th Nov

 

(changes from Savanta ComRes/Sunday Express poll, Nov 23rd)

Expect the YouGov MRP in about 30 minutes.. expected to show a large Conservative majority (sadly).

 

Another poll showing the slimming lead of the Conservatives. There's a real possibility of a 2017 repeat given we have a couple weeks left to go and the potential upheaval from the NHS documents.

Just looking at the results - quite astonishing that in a CON maj of 68 Canterbury is still predicted to go Labour. There is a seismic shift in the demographics of party allegiances going on in the UK!

 

Could be critical come 13th.

359 seats gives a majority of 34, not 68? (52 if you exclude NI seats).

 

It's honestly not as big of a majority as I thought would be projected. All it'll take is 2-3% swing to make a hung parliament. Given that momentum is currently on Labour's side, I feel that's where we're headed.

 

The figure for the majority is the lead over all other seats combined (which does check out - 359 Tories, 291 non-Tories). Although their effective majority would actually be slightly higher than that due to Sinn Féin not actually taking their seats (plus the non-Tory count includes the speaker and the DUP (and all Northern Irish parties for that matter)).

 

Reading more about this poll it does indeed seem that it's much closer than the raw number indicates and a small percentage swing could still lead to a hung parliament. I'm not allowing myself to have hope here though.

 

Tories only losing 2 seats in Scotland, where is the promised wipeout? :( Labour have lost more Scottish seats than them! (Not too surprising considering Scottish Labour almost has no reason to exist when they have the SNP, but they started from a lower number than the Tories).

Just looking at the results - quite astonishing that in a CON maj of 68 Canterbury is still predicted to go Labour. There is a seismic shift in the demographics of party allegiances going on in the UK!

 

Could be critical come 13th.

 

Indeed. Like the Remain/Leave divide referendum, it looks like the cities are strongly Labour, with the towns and villages going more Conservative (with some exceptions).