That's the biggest ever YouGov lead- a polling company with a reputation for inflating Tory leads over the last decade (although recently think they changed their methodology)

 

If events move as quick as today no way Truss can last more than 2 years in power. But have a feeling no U turn in short term.

 

Using Electoral Calculus' model on the proposed boundaries, those figures would result in Labour winning 416 seats and the Tories winning 142 seats. An even bigger majority for Labour than in 1997!

There’s no way they will win that many seats - they will need 30/40 Scottish seats to do that in 2022 that won’t happen!

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According to Electoral Calculus, that would leave the Tories with three seats :lol: The Lib Dems (with only one-third as many votes as the Tories) would win eight.

They are truly fuked. The conference will be absolute gold at the weekend.

According to Electoral Calculus, that would leave the Tories with three seats :lol: The Lib Dems (with only one-third as many votes as the Tories) would win eight.

 

And does Electoral Calculus take into account tactical voting? Be ause I predict big fat zero then!

T W E N T Y P O I N T S A H E A D (well, 33 in that first poll (!!))

 

it finally happened, now the meme can die

Good to see the new leader bounce taking effect

And does Electoral Calculus take into account tactical voting? Be ause I predict big fat zero then!

The default is not to take that into account but you can change that.

Oh my god.

 

The levels of self sabotage by Liz Truss (in less than a month!) is truly staggering. Incredible.

Edited September 29, 20222 yr by blacksquare

This is incredible. One model I saw had the Tories left with 2 Scottish seats, and the political commentator was like “so, zero then”

 

A total wipe out 🥰

Has it been categorically disproven that she's actually a Lib Dem mole yet?

Any other leader would be 40 points ahead 😤

 

never in my wildest dreams did I predict she'd tank the Tory vote this hard.

 

 

It's a shame we have to wait so long for the next election.

 

Is there any way we can get a snap GE next year?

 

It does look like we're going to see a repeat of the 1997 election when Tony Blair won by a landslide. Perhaps an even bigger landslide win.

It's a shame we have to wait so long for the next election.

 

Is there any way we can get a snap GE next year?

 

It does look like we're going to see a repeat of the 1997 election when Tony Blair won by a landslide. Perhaps an even bigger landslide win.

 

I think the only possible route to a GE next year is literally a Tory split where those who voted for Sunak form a new party and pretend to be this mythical actually-Conservative Tory party in an attempt to retain their safest seats and then vote with Labour for an election where the plan is to go into opposition and watch Labour have to come to power fixing things up.

 

so, not likely. Way more likely is they stumble on as Major did.

An election one might want to begin studying if figures like this hold:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

 

result: governing Progressive Conservatives reduced from governing with 156 to 2 (!) seats (interestingly, with a PM with less than 6 months in office, also in a great moment for women's rights in Canada, their only female PM to date), have to disband their party and rebrand after merging with a slightly more successful UKIP equivalent.

 

Bloc Québecois became the official opposition. Obvious parallels there too with the models that have been going around after that poll.

 

(do think the models are underrating Lib Dems and Tories even in the event of complete Tory collapse to about those figures, some true blue rural areas would still vote Tory by default and Lib Dems are second in enough of the south that they'd be the anti-Tory party and not Labour, but SNP would still be of a comparable size to either on those figures and that's incredible)

Having moaned about Scotland becoming a “one party state” it’s hilarious that the electoral calculus models are now all showing that Scotland is the only thing preventing the whole bloody country becoming a one party state because the Tories have collapsed so hard. The Schadenfreude is real

 

The SNP becoming HMs Opposition would be glorious. Even if it was only for the couple of months while independence was being negotiated

I had to re-read that YouGov poll several times to check it's real. Holy moly! It's delicious to see the Tories facing electoral wipeout after everything they've put the country through. Obviously we're far from an election so unlikely we'd actually end up in the scenario predicted.

 

Also love that you wait so long for a poll of 20+ point lead and you get two on the same night (also one from Survation). The YouGov poll cannot just be an outlier!