One day last week Scotland added over 900 cases. In the last WEEK, the state of Berlin added 826 cases TOTAL. (5.5m vs 3.7m). What the actual FUCK is going on over in Plague Island.

 

 

The reopening UK wide has just puzzled me endlessly. Its been so badly handled. Here, like in some other EU countries, reopening has been done in a much smarter way I reckon. Dining out, non-essential shopping, hairdresser etc - all of that required negative rapid test results. Which the absolute majority of folks have been happy to comply with without complaint. I see a lot of people actually praising it (me included, i love the concept). For us it has meant that doing all of this stuff is safer than it has been since Jan 2020, we have the knowledge were surrounded by everyone that tested negative. We also use FFP2 masks and have an extraordinarily high compliance rate and you don't really see anyone saying that theyre exempt. I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw someone in a store without a mask.

 

 

My current working theory is that the extremely large availability of free rapid testing combined with the legislative requirement to show negative results (or be fully vaxxed or recently recovered from the rona) to do more normal things means that we are testing so many people per day here and because of that we are properly rooting out a lot of the cases and driving the community spread down. We can buy self tests for 3€ in the supermarket, there's pics all over social media of friend groups meeting up for a night in and everyone has a little self test with their name on it. Vaccination is an important measure for sure, but the UK seems to be using that as its sole measure rather than as part of a package of measures to control spread.

 

I know most folks can now order two rapid tests to the house each week but thats voluntary. You guys opened pubs and had a super spreading weekend (i have seen plenty of social media pics and not ONE was within the rule of 6) and as restrictions have eased your cases have rocketed but when we did the same we had a fall in cases and it continues to plummet even tho more and more restrictions are being lifted here. I believe its mainly because we all had to have negative test results to do the newly unlocked things. (part vax is about 46% and full vax is 21.6% currently, although ours are counted in terms of total population rather than adult pop.)

A negative lateral flow test ≠ you are 100% Covid free (23.2% are false negatives).

 

We have them at work ('yay') but everyone continues to observe social distancing/mask wearing in communal indoor areas etc. and the only action taken is if you get a positive, where you go home to get a PCR and then self-isolate if that comes back positive.

 

Personally I think a negative Covid result may give unwarranted overconfidence and cause more issues than it solves.

Obviously, it doesn't mean you are free of it. But its a far better indicator of your infection level than doing heehaw is.

 

 

Our case numbers speak for themselves. Federally our 7-day rate is 20.6. Our world in data reports that Germany's infection rate is currently less than half of that of the UK. Our test result is valid only for 24hrs so we get tested multiple times per week. We are catching and isolating new cases extremely fast as a result. No overconfidence here at all, and no indication that the test requirement will leave any time soon either. Testing is a proven tool and the UK is ignoring it and look at the vertically rising numbers you have, again.

 

 

 

This is the safest I have felt during the pandemic when out and about

I don't think things have been handled that badly here, I mean what else can we do internally? The problem has been people think covid is over. The numbers are not great but you have to look at them beyond the data too.. the UK is carrying out far more PCR testing compared to lots of Europe (say Spain for example). It's just this tricky exit wave which we are in and other countries will likely experience too.

 

I think the positive rate of tests is like 0.8% vs 4.4% in Spain, who have lower cases numbers. Plus the surge testing in hard-hit areas is finding more positive cases so from a geographical split it's lopsided. But the danger now is that it will inevitably spread across the country.

 

Yes maybe in hindsight there is something that could be done with rapid testing, but I don't know.. it's all bit excessive for low risk activities? I think it should be done if you're going to spend hours in one particular place but not sure I see the benefit of it otherwise. Seems a bit too Big Brother for me and feeds in to the anti-vaxx nonsense.

In my opinion the constant hysteria-causing thinkpieces do not help people take covid seriously.

 

When it's the third or fourth time the variant 'that might escape the vaccines and cause mass hospitalisation of young people!!!' hasn't done that, or even anything close to it, people start getting suspicious.

 

In my view this is incredibly dangerous because it really is a boy that cried wolf situation in that if there actually becomes a danger in the future, after so many false alarms, who will believe it?

Is this a Germany good UK bad debate?

In my opinion the constant hysteria-causing thinkpieces do not help people take covid seriously.

 

When it's the third or fourth time the variant 'that might escape the vaccines and cause mass hospitalisation of young people!!!' hasn't done that, or even anything close to it, people start getting suspicious.

 

In my view this is incredibly dangerous because it really is a boy that cried wolf situation in that if there actually becomes a danger in the future, after so many false alarms, who will believe it?

 

The problem the NHS have is not that it might cause hospitalisation of the young people, it's that it overwhelms the service with general care. It's going to be a crazy few years to catch up with the backlog created by covid and that's not even considering the missed screenings, routine appointments, cardio vascular rehab etc. that has not taken place.

 

The vaccines work and the link is proven to reduce mortality, the problem is we're probably about 3 months away from having some form of real herd immunity so we're in this messy situation which could go either way, but we don't really know.

The problem the NHS have is not that it might cause hospitalisation of the young people, it's that it overwhelms the service with general care. It's going to be a crazy few years to catch up with the backlog created by covid and that's not even considering the missed screenings, routine appointments, cardio vascular rehab etc. that has not taken place.

 

The vaccines work and the link is proven to reduce mortality, the problem is we're probably about 3 months away from having some form of real herd immunity so we're in this messy situation which could go either way, but we don't really know.

 

I'm not blaming the NHS, just the hysterical media reporting. It's extremely irresponsible. Properly convey the risks. Don't tell people the most extreme possible interpretation every time that they will then dismiss everything you say next time because what you said before didn't come true.

 

The media have responsibility and authority and they are pissing it away to create drama and clicks instead of doing their duty to inform the public of facts and things that are likely to happen.

I'm not blaming the NHS, just the hysterical media reporting. It's extremely irresponsible. Properly convey the risks. Don't tell people the most extreme possible interpretation every time that they will then dismiss everything you say next time because what you said before didn't come true.

 

The media have responsibility and authority and they are pissing it away to create drama and clicks instead of doing their duty to inform the public of facts and things that are likely to happen.

 

I'd say it depends where you source your media from, media is clickbaity as it creates ad revenue and traffic. It's why I prefer to use BBC as while they do this too, it's less likely compared to your tabloids and Sky for example. Although I have noticed on BBC news they are leading with deaths vs infections rather than infections vs deaths as was previously. I'd say it's fairly likely at this moment in time June 21st gets pushed back anyway.

Is this a Germany good UK bad debate?

It definitely seems like it - nobody was criticising Germany a month ago when the U.K. was below 2k cases a day and Germany were still struggling. Both countries have handled the second wave in different ways but to similar effect; Germany are evidently more effective in controlling case spread yet it would be foolish not to highlight that the U.K. has acted remarkably efficiently with its vaccination programme in comparison to E.U. countries such as Germany - I would say it’s counterproductive to compare the two, especially when there are so many variables involved.

Edited June 10, 20214 yr by mdh

Not sure if this applies to all ages - but a friend told me that it's now really easy to rebook your 2nd vaccine appointment and move it earlier by Managing your Booking on the NHS website. That was true - I was down for 5th July but moved forward to 23rd June. You have to cancel and rebook but apparently loads of appointments available (especially AZ). Could have done as early as next week but wasn't free then.

It definitely seems like it - nobody was criticising Germany a month ago when the U.K. was below 2k cases a day and Germany were still struggling. Both countries have handled the second wave in different ways but to similar effect; Germany are evidently more effective in controlling case spread yet it would be foolish not to highlight that the U.K. has acted remarkably efficiently with its vaccination programme in comparison to E.U. countries such as Germany - I would say it’s counterproductive to compare the two, especially when there are so many variables involved.

 

Ha, to be fair there has been months of criticism (and misplaced gloating) about the EU vaccination programme vs the UK...

:cheeseblock:

 

Finally. Three Green Traffic Lights again for the first time since September.

 

(Berlin has three traffic lights that in theory control restrictions but they introduced it then ignored it when shit went mental In Sept at the start of wave 2. The lights are the 4 day R0, % occupancy of intensive care beds and then the 7 day rate which is the one that has gone green for the first time since September as it dropped under 20) not saying it’s better, just explaining what it is so you understand my pure joy at seeing the third one finally green again

Figs in bbc news 12/42 deaths of people who died from delta variant had two vaccine doses.

Well it's been said all along it's merely a tool in the arsenal rather a silver bullet!

It's pretty much the ONLY tool in the UK's government's arsenal sadly. A very good one but not enough to give us freedom... (and not mentioning the sad number of deaths too).

It's pretty much the ONLY tool in the UK's government's arsenal sadly. A very good one but not enough to give us freedom... (and not mentioning the sad number of deaths too).

 

It's the only tool for the world really. I think the concerning thing, is if this Delta variant spreads across the world then it's going to be chaotic. The death size sample from 2 vaccine doses is way too small a sample size to read too much in to- we have no idea if they had underlying health conditions or how old/frail etc. they are.

 

I really do think June 21st will get pushed back, but no more than 4 weeks. I think Doctor Blind said it earlier, but ideally you want the exit wave to be in the summer before the autumn.

Perhaps by the time we've survived the Omega variant we might be out of it.

According to the well connected on Twitter, theres going to be a 4 week delay announced on Monday for the vast majority of restrictions. Hope they at least allow outdoor events like Parkrun to start.

Seems sensible, at least it's a delay rather than a return. Would've prefered if it were 2 weeks rather than 4 with the option to extend, but fair enough.

 

I can't see ParkRun being affected - the reason its return was delayed from 5th June to 26th June was due to them not having enough permissions from land owners, but they've now secured this, so even if there's an extension they can still have up to 500 people taking part as long as they carry out a risk assessment first.