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128 members have voted

  1. 1. First week sales prediction:

    • Less than 15k
      3
    • 15-30k
      1
    • 31-45k
      10
    • 46-60k
      24
    • 61-75k
      27
    • 76-90k
      27
    • 91-105k
      12
    • 106-120k
      10
    • 121-135k
      1
    • More than 135k
      3
    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    • 0

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I went for 76-90k.

 

I'm guessing it will still have a very strong opening week for the current climate but with the stinger that physicals will make up a more overwhelming proportion of the total than his previous albums and the streaming contribution will be notably down a lot and the knock on effect that it will have a lot less longevity on the chart than his albums are used to.

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Between 61-75k would be my guess.

 

It’ll still easily be amongst the years biggest sellers just not to his gigantic level.

 

I really hope he takes a break after this though. It really feels like he’s pretty much constantly had something out whether it’s his own material or featuring on other artists tracks or both since Divide without any significant break.

Edited by JLJ

Are multiple formats more of a thing since his last album released? Is he releasing many editions? That could seriously bump up his first week numbers.
So you think he'd drop from 94k below 50k in physical sales? That'd be a huge collapse if so.

 

To be fair 592k to 94k is a much much much bigger drop but that happened :mellow:

  • Author
The album is out in less than six days. Any last predictions?
I really hope he takes a break after this though. It really feels like he’s pretty much constantly had something out whether it’s his own material or featuring on other artists tracks or both since Divide without any significant break.

He may be forced to take a long break.

 

From MSN News

Ed Sheeran says he'll stop making music if he loses plagiarism case.

Ed Sheeran is on trial for a second case of alleged plagiarism. In 2022, he was sued over his track 'Shape of You.' He won that case, but it wasn't fun. Now, the dispute is about his single 'Thinking Out Loud.' And Sheeran is getting frustrated. In the Manhattan Court where he has to defend himself against claims that he stole from the famous Marvin Gaye song 'What's Going On,' Sheeran indicated that he'd had it. If the court were to find him guilty of making a song that sounded too much like Gaye's, he declared, "I'm done. I'm stopping."

 

According to the copyright owners of Marvin Gaye's song, the songs have a lot in common, and they are suing the British singer for plagiarism, demanding millions of dollars.

Maybe not.

 

JUST IN: A Manhattan jury found Ed Sheeran's hit "Thinking Out Loud" did not infringe on the copyright of the classic Marvin Gaye song "Let's Get It On." The jury determined that Sheeran did not wrongfully copy compositional elements or melodies from "Let's Get It On." CNN 48 mins ago

The instrumentals of the Marvin Gaye and Ed Sheeran songs are almost the same. I was re-watching old episodes of Big Brother from the 00's about a year ago and in one of them they had a karaoke task (or something similar) and the Marvin Gaye song was used, and I was puzzled for ages because I was thinking how on Earth could they be singing Thinking Out Loud in 2005? But then I realised it was the Marvin Gaye song. But I agree as well that it's hard to say it's plagiarism, and there are other possible explanations for why that could've happened.

 

I think Ed Sheeran likely knew in advance what the outcome would be, because I don't think he'd have made that statement about quitting music if he thought there was a realistic chance he could lose.

I feel as if there is almost zero hype around this album? Usually for an Ed release I see it everywhere in the run up to it coming out but feel like I’ve heard or seen hardly anything about this one.
Why anyone would be excited for an Ed Sheeran visual album I'll never know. He's hardly well known for serving amazing visuals and music videos
I think Ed Sheeran likely knew in advance what the outcome would be, because I don't think he'd have made that statement about quitting music if he thought there was a realistic chance he could lose.

How could he possibly have known in advance what the jury was going to decide? It was obviously just a statement he made in the heat of the moment and he almost certainly wouldn't have stood by it and just quit music completely.

Probably being pessimistic but I went with 31k-45k. With only one single that has been moderately successful and less commercial release, I don’t know how much demand there is to pick this up on release. At least = came out after two big singles and a busy Q4 schedule (expect there to have been people picking this up with 30 or Voyage). There is also an element of Ed fatigue.
How could he possibly have known in advance what the jury was going to decide? It was obviously just a statement he made in the heat of the moment and he almost certainly wouldn't have stood by it and just quit music completely.

 

It happens all the time that celebrities know the verdict in advance. It's got to the point where I just assume they always know in advance because it's so common.

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