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Padam Padam Week 4 Predictions 37 members have voted

  1. 1. How Will Things go on week 4.

    • It Will Climb
      18
    • It will Drop
      15
    • It will be a non mover
      4

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Here are my projections for this week, compared with Kylie, without the cassettes, and therefore how many cassettes she would need to sell to overtake these songs.

 

#10 Dave/CC - Trojan Horse +2,100

#11 Dave/CC - UK Rap +1,500

#12 Loreen +1,250

#13 Hannah Laing +700

#14 Kylie

#15 Fifty Fifty -300

#16 David Guetta -1,100

#17 Dua Lipa -1,500

 

Three caveats

1 - This would underestimate those on upward trajectories: Kylie, Hannah Laing; and overestimate those on downward trajectories: possibly Dave and Central Cee tracks and Loreen.

 

2 - This would overestimate those doing well on Amazon compared with Spotify and vice versa - so Hannah Laing, Dave/Central Cee and Dua Lipa could be underestimated.

 

3 - It hasn’t taken into consideration whether any of Monday’s data is still missing: it makes the assumption that all streaming data (apart from Amazon) inlcludes up to the end of Monday with Amazon up to the end of Tuesday.

 

Ultimately, even without cassettes, Kylie should eventually pull away from all those below her. Of those above her, Loreen looks to be within Kylie’s sights once cassettes are added; but the other three: Hannah Laing and the two Dave/Central Cee tracks will all depend on tomorrow’s updates, and could go either way.

 

My prediction? 14 without cassettes; 13 with - but 10-13 could be close!

 

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Why do I have this awful feeling she’s gonna end up at number 11?

 

Even that would be amazing – her highest charting solo single since ‘All The Lovers’. And I don’t feel that it has reached its peak yet.

 

WEEK 4:

 

Saturday 10th June (#1: Sex Pistols / #2: BTS)

#3

Overall Sales: 1,133

Pure Sales: 1,133 (CD+Download Sales, combined)

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10 (-7)

Overall Sales: 4,835 (+3,702)

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,496

Pure Sales: 1,594 (+461 // CD+Download Sales, combined)

Streaming Sales: 3,241

 

Monday 12th June - midweek (Missing Data: Apple Music, YouTube)

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966 (+3,131)

CD Sales: 98 (±0)

Download Sales: 1,890 (+394)

Streaming Sales: 5,978 (+2,737)

 

Tuesday 13th June - midweek

#13 (-1)

Overall Sales: 11,280 (+3,314)

CD Sales: 184 (+86)

Download Sales: 2,259 (+369)

Streaming Sales: 8,837 (+2,859)

 

Wednesday 14th June - midweek

#14 (-1)

Overall Sales: 13,724 (+2,444)

CD Sales: 246 (+62)

Download Sales: 2,646 (+387)

Streaming Sales: 10,832 (+1,995)

 

Thursday 15th June - midweek

#13 (+1)

Overall Sales: 17,908 (+4,184)

Physical Sales: 359 (+113) - Very likely to still only be CDs.

Download Sales: 3,112 (+466)

Streaming Sales: 14,437 (+3,605)

 

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Thursday comparisons:

 

Thursday 8th June - midweek

#12

Overall Sales: 15,882

CD Sales: 2,357

Download Sales: 2,117

Streaming Sales: 11,408

 

Thursday 15th June - midweek

#13 (-1)

Overall Sales: 17,908 (+2,026)

Physical Sales: 359 (-1,998)

Download Sales: 3,112 (+995)

Streaming Sales: 14,437 (+3,029)

 

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Week 1-3 data: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t&p=7364356

2000 sales ahead of last week but a place lower....come on Kylie.

 

Top ten on lock.

Edited by aeroco

My cassette has been marked with a Friday despatch date....CD today's date with a separate tracking number along with the EFY bundle.

 

All supposed to be part of the same order.

 

Maybe they haven't enough cassettes yet to fulfil all orders.

My cassette has been marked with a Friday despatch date....CD today's date with a separate tracking number along with the EFY bundle.

 

All supposed to be part of the same order.

 

Maybe they haven't enough cassettes yet to fulfil all orders.

 

Interesting they are splitting orders to get PP sales in! Maybe the 2nd batch of cassettes was not ready to go as soon as they thought they would be?

Think that would be the case....hopefully they're confident in the cassette sales ready to go today and save the rest to next week....whilst I'm wanting to help this weeks chart position, I also didn't want to risk it selling out so I'm pleased I put the order in. It's all going to PP's total sales anyway.

Here are my projections for this week, compared with Kylie, without the cassettes, and therefore how many cassettes she would need to sell to overtake these songs.

 

#9 Hannah Laing +600

#10 Rema +250

=#11 Kylie

=#11 Dave/CC - Trojan Horse

#13 Loreen -150

#14 Dave/CC - UK Rap -850

 

All six songs seem to be much closer than earlier on in the week.

 

There are caveats - Hannah Laing could move even further ahead; will Loreen’s CD’s count towards this week’s chart? And it feels impossible to judge how well the Dave and Central Cee tracks will do.

 

But overall I feel Kylie has a very good chance of being 10, possibly even 9.

Here are my projections for this week, compared with Kylie, without the cassettes, and therefore how many cassettes she would need to sell to overtake these songs.

 

But overall I feel Kylie has a very good chance of being 10, possibly even 9.

 

:wub: Praying that this comes true!

I cannot see how Trojan Horse and UK Rap with over 1.9 million streams on Spotify alone would be below PP? The gap on AM is not that big (they are #13 and #17 there) so would the sales benefit Kylie that much (worth of around 900k streams)?

Edited by Sour Candy

I cannot see how Trojan Horse and UK Rap with over 1.9 million streams on Spotify alone would be below PP? The gap on AM is not that big (they are #13 and #17 there) so would the sales benefit Kylie that much (worth of around 900k streams)?

 

We defeated this evil last week, we can do it again! B-)

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