Well republicans also won the senate and probably house so Trump has complete power it will be interesting to see what they do with it. When Democrats had complete power they didn’t codify roe v wade or do a bunch of things they could have. They tried to be more bipartisan and probably regretted it

I guess the new thing to hope for will be that Biden grows a pair and has some strong declarations/pardons/exec orders as he goes out

I've had a weird feeling all day and I am not even American so I can't imagine how non-republican voters are feeling right now

What a grim day. :/

A lot of people on TV saying how did the polls get it wrong again, they didn’t. Atlas Intel was spot on pretty much everywhere. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls People just got sucked in by some bizarre Iowa poll. The last few weeks the polls and markets said Trump was going to win but people preferred to believe it was polymarket effecting things or dismissed polls they didn’t like. It was forecasted pretty well mostly. Definitely not a failure of polling plus polling can influence stuff too. That Iowa poll definitely helped Trump&s ground people get the vote out maybe even caused the Joe Rogan endorsement as they needed to swing back momentum.

Harris due to speak publicly at 18.00 ET (23.00 GMT).

A lot of people on TV saying how did the polls get it wrong again, they didn’t. Atlas Intel was spot on pretty much everywhere. https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls People just got sucked in by some bizarre Iowa poll. The last few weeks the polls and markets said Trump was going to win but people preferred to believe it was polymarket effecting things or dismissed polls they didn’t like. It was forecasted pretty well mostly. Definitely not a failure of polling plus polling can influence stuff too. That Iowa poll definitely helped Trump&s ground people get the vote out maybe even caused the Joe Rogan endorsement as they needed to swing back momentum.

 

The large number of polls who went towards a tied race definitely herded - even if some of them turned out right, the sheer amount and lack of variation around a tie is poor methodology. Of course, some of them were right and more right than Selzer or Lichtman, which is somewhat difficult to believe on its surface, but true nonetheless.

 

Polling industry certainly has one thing to reckon with though, and that is the sheer number of polls associated with the GOP and billionaire apparatus that are about more than checking public opinion, rather clearly flooding the zone in attempts to lead public opinion. Just like newspapers and Musk's ownership of Twitter, putting thumbs on the scale to shift the result. Not that I'm saying this made the difference, or that it's solely responsible for the Democrat loss, but it's been clearly realised as a method for the billionaires to move towards their preferred result. The sudden appearance of Iowa polls following Selzer was particularly egregious.

So much for the pictures of a few rows of empty seats at Trump rallies at the end, really thought Harris would win when those pics were released. The results did start off well for her in some counties in Indiana but...

Edited November 6, 2024Nov 6 by TheSnake

So much for the pictures of a few rows of empty seats at Trump rallies at the end, really thought Harris would win when those pics were released. The results did start off well for her in some counties in Indiana but...

 

Clearly this had very little to do with the campaigns, because anyone paying attention to either would see a low energy poorly attended Trump campaign and a high energy inspiring Harris one, even if you like Trump or don't like Harris. The problems were clearly a lot more fundamental and likely an inevitable disappearance of Democratic voters due to bad feelings about the economy.

Not to wish death on someone but after there already being 2 assassination attempts on Trump this year I would be surprised if no one tries it again within the next 4 years.

 

 

I'm worried about the next few week even before Jan 20th.

Trump didn't GAIN voters. He couldn't. He has his base, and after 2020 insurrection, he had no chance to expand on it. Kamala shed 14 million votes. She almost lost New Jersey. The problem is, the Democrsts offered nothing. They need to move left. Centrism is dead.

Trump didn't GAIN voters. He couldn't. He has his base, and after 2020 insurrection, he had no chance to expand on it. Kamala shed 14 million votes. She almost lost New Jersey. The problem is, the Democrsts offered nothing. They need to move left. Centrism is dead.

 

If they move further left it will be a one-party system!

I guess it's easy to see in retrospect now but it seems like the Democrats fell into the trap with just assuming that Trump is a laughing stock and (rightfully) completely unelectable and saying how worse it could be under him, but not actually making it clear why them. Through misinformation or otherwise, the average American has not been happy with the current administration and there's no promise of change, they have an option of change so they'll take it, no matter how internet-popular and celebrity-endorsed the alternative is. That may work in the likes of California, but the swing states work a bit differently.

 

Having said that, it did seem like this was always coming as the polls were almost completely static throughout and the swing states were just unsatisfied with how things were so while Biden definitely should've never ran for re-election in the first place and they should've made it clearer that there will be changes, they had an uphill battle whoever they picked, especially with the double standards in the media (the amount of furore over Biden's suitability due to age compared to Trump's is ridiculous)

 

It'll be a tough four years with full Republican dominance for at least the first two (really worried about Ukraine in particular) but silver linings and all that - he'll do about as well as last time, the world will still be turning and then he'll finally be gone for good (no way the term limits thing is going to be altered, that is steeped in their constitution and could start a civil war if that were changed, and I can't see any of his family having the same impact, he's a once in a generation candidate that we'll hopefully look back and one day sign in relief that we survived it).

If they move further left it will be a one-party system!

 

Further left??? They didn't move left AT ALL. THEY MOVED TO COURT REPUBLICANS!! Republicans are gonna say they are communistd anyway. They even called BIDEN!!!!! a communist lol. May as well give something to people ro vote for, rsther than, we're not THAT OTHER guy! The leftists won their seats with ease, so...

I guess it's easy to see in retrospect now but it seems like the Democrats fell into the trap with just assuming that Trump is a laughing stock and (rightfully) completely unelectable and saying how worse it could be under him, but not actually making it clear why them. Through misinformation or otherwise, the average American has not been happy with the current administration and there's no promise of change, they have an option of change so they'll take it, no matter how internet-popular and celebrity-endorsed the alternative is. That may work in the likes of California, but the swing states work a bit differently.

 

Having said that, it did seem like this was always coming as the polls were almost completely static throughout and the swing states were just unsatisfied with how things were so while Biden definitely should've never ran for re-election in the first place and they should've made it clearer that there will be changes, they had an uphill battle whoever they picked, especially with the double standards in the media (the amount of furore over Biden's suitability due to age compared to Trump's is ridiculous)

 

It'll be a tough four years with full Republican dominance for at least the first two (really worried about Ukraine in particular) but silver linings and all that - he'll do about as well as last time, the world will still be turning and then he'll finally be gone for good (no way the term limits thing is going to be altered, that is steeped in their constitution and could start a civil war if that were changed, and I can't see any of his family having the same impact, he's a once in a generation candidate that we'll hopefully look back and one day sign in relief that we survived it).

 

California is quite close this time. New Jersey id swing state levels-close. No one voted for Democrats, as the Democrsts did not offer them anything to vote for. Time to go left.

I guess it's easy to see in retrospect now but it seems like the Democrats fell into the trap with just assuming that Trump is a laughing stock and (rightfully) completely unelectable and saying how worse it could be under him, but not actually making it clear why them. Through misinformation or otherwise, the average American has not been happy with the current administration and there's no promise of change, they have an option of change so they'll take it, no matter how internet-popular and celebrity-endorsed the alternative is. That may work in the likes of California, but the swing states work a bit differently.

 

Having said that, it did seem like this was always coming as the polls were almost completely static throughout and the swing states were just unsatisfied with how things were so while Biden definitely should've never ran for re-election in the first place and they should've made it clearer that there will be changes, they had an uphill battle whoever they picked, especially with the double standards in the media (the amount of furore over Biden's suitability due to age compared to Trump's is ridiculous)

 

It'll be a tough four years with full Republican dominance for at least the first two (really worried about Ukraine in particular) but silver linings and all that - he'll do about as well as last time, the world will still be turning and then he'll finally be gone for good (no way the term limits thing is going to be altered, that is steeped in their constitution and could start a civil war if that were changed, and I can't see any of his family having the same impact, he's a once in a generation candidate that we'll hopefully look back and one day sign in relief that we survived it).

 

Important to note the term limit only became a thing following 1945 when Roosevelt had a third term.

 

Trump didn't GAIN voters. He couldn't. He has his base, and after 2020 insurrection, he had no chance to expand on it. Kamala shed 14 million votes. She almost lost New Jersey. The problem is, the Democrsts offered nothing. They need to move left. Centrism is dead.

 

He gained a few % points in heavy Dem areas and she didn’t keep up with Joes % in the same areas, add this up throughout the counties it works out to an easy win in the swing states.

 

Pretty much this. I’ve had a shit day today and I’m all honesty it began soon after I woke up and saw the way these results were going. Gluttons for punishment, the lot of them.

Kamala speech coming up at 7pm