Saturday at 10:005 days Super weird dynamic in this by-election because voting Labour is likely to result in deposing the unpopular Labour prime minister. A Reform win is the most likely result that somehow keeps Keir Starmer in office?! I have no idea how Reform campaign or how Reform-minded voters make a decision. Given that it's likely to be portrayed more as a vote against Keir Starmer and for Andy Burnham then I think it's a Labour win. If it's seen as a vote for or against Labour then it will not go well for Labour.I think the result might therefore overstate the Andy Burnham effect who does have a personal vote but under normal circumstances is not strong enough to overpower headwinds against an unpopular government in a seat that's quite Reform-friendly. Starmer's unpopularity will be irrelevant in the future.
1 hour ago1 hr Author Saw someone saying the other day that the best thing Keir Starmer could do in the by-election is go and canvass in Makerfield, telling the voters that "a vote for Andy Burnham is a vote of confidence in me". Looks like he's going to do just that. If Burnham wins, he can take the credit for it. If he loses, then Keir can keep going for another year. BBC NewsStarmer says he will campaign for Burnham in MakerfieldThe prime minister says Labour needs to "all pull together and fight", after a revolt against his leadership.
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