I like Starmer but he's not a radical by any length.

 

The thing with political parties when choosing a new leader is that they always highlight the previous leaders worst issues and change that to the extreme.

There's no point in Labour launching any radical new policies in the middle of a pandemic and with four years until the next election. Indeed, there are no elections of any sort (not even local byelections) until next May.

I like Starmer but he's not a radical by any length.

 

The thing with political parties when choosing a new leader is that they always highlight the previous leaders worst issues and change that to the extreme.

 

But doesn't this just highlight the problem that Labour cannot really be unified? I don't think the hardcore Corbynite left will truly get behind anyone that isn't one of their own, and none of their own have the ability to pull the rest of the party with them.

 

Just even having a shot at the next election in 2024 will be a tough task.

I think the 20 points joke just shows how inaccurate that statement was, you can't trust a paper of capital when it makes ridiculous claims about a left candidate like that.

 

Like with Biden in the States (and Starmer's far better a leader than Biden), my hope is that the left-wing will get concessions made in the form of policies as and when Starmer's Labour can sell them, doing so just as much because they can implement them as to keep the left happy. Starmer's Labour would be so much better at putting together a just society than the Conservatives, I'm going to be criticising Starmer over the next few years when he deserves it, but I hope to be largely supportive and not be relentlessly banging on over details.

 

Does of course rankle a lot that he's not ahead with the pandemic, and the Conservatives facing a Brexit disaster and Russian ties, but there's also so much of that it's hard to place himself as an alternative yet.

 

I suspect if the Lib Dems elect Layla Moran then they might be able to pull some numbers from Labour with social policies, which as it stands is probably my main worry for 2024 returning a Conservative government over anything else.

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 42% (-2)

LAB: 38% (+2)

LDEM: 6% (-)

GRN: 4% (-)

 

via @OpiniumResearch, 23 - 24 Jul

Chgs. w/ 17 Jul

Not the UK but I figured this poll was interesting (and positive, given the general political leaning of the people here) ahead of the New Zealand elections in September

 

@1287697695088324608

 

Ardern is going to landslide it.

Holy shit Ardern. Clear as day evidence that good quality empathetic leadership is a vote winner

Not the UK but I figured this poll was interesting (and positive, given the general political leaning of the people here) ahead of the New Zealand elections in September

 

@1287697695088324608

 

Ardern is going to landslide it.

 

Impressive!

 

For an apparent Blairirte, Labour's 2020 focus on public spending and progressive social issues is more Corbyn. It'll be interesting to see what they can pull off with a majority.

Edited July 31, 20205 yr by blacksquare

@1296121550354219008

@1299781777163255814

 

Finally not a Conservative lead - though on data they are EVER so slightly ahead (416-410 on the data numbers), but headline will be the tie. First time since last year. Shouldn't have taken this long but at least that's a threshold crossed.

@1299781777163255814

 

Finally not a Conservative lead - though on data they are EVER so slightly ahead (416-410 on the data numbers), but headline will be the tie. First time since last year. Shouldn't have taken this long but at least that's a threshold crossed.

 

Still not a lead for Labour however... the numbers behind the numbers are the interesting thing here. There was a Survation poll last month that showed Labour leading Conservatives in EVERY age group under 65, but with a massive 46 pt lead in the >65s. Basically the polarisation between the generations is increasing every year.

 

This is not normal (see below).

 

Labour's % of the vote amongst 18-24 year olds, 1992-2019 (via Ipsos MORI):

 

1992 ~ 38%

1997 ~ 49%

2001 ~ 41%

2005 ~ 38%

2010 ~ 31%

2015 ~ 43%

2017 ~ 62%

2019 ~ 62%

Can see it on a lot of polls at the moment. Brexit, Indy and in SNP vs Tory support in Scotland. There is a growing young vs old divide that seems to be more pronounced than the typical social category and education markers

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 42% (+2)

LAB: 39% (-1)

 

via @OpiniumResearch

Chgs. w/ 28 Aug

 

If this was Corbyn.....

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 40% (-2)

LAB: 40% (+3)

LDEM: 6% (-)

 

via YouGov

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 40% (-1)

LAB: 40% (+1)

LDEM: 7% (-1)

GRN: 5% (-)

 

via Redfield & Wilton, 22 - 23 Sep

 

Rumours that in a poll out tonight Labour have taken the lead over the Conservatives for the first time since June 2019.

A pity that it's still 4 years until the next election then. But it's been good to see Labour able to bring themselves back to being competitive in the polls so quickly. I'm optimistic for 2024.

A pity that it's still 4 years until the next election then. But it's been good to see Labour able to bring themselves back to being competitive in the polls so quickly. I'm optimistic for 2024.

 

 

The Tories will probably have a younger dynamic leader by then though and be reaping the rewards of a successful Brexit with Covid just a distant memory. Write them off at your peril.

The Tories will probably have a younger dynamic leader by then though and be reaping the rewards of a successful Brexit with Covid just a distant memory. Write them off at your peril.

 

I mean you say that, but who knows really. If Brexit is the likely disaster it is, it will affect the poorest. I know the Tories had a massive majority last time, but the election in 2024 will be like no others with the backdrop of Covid and Brexit. We're still talking about the implications of the financial crash in 2008, so I really can't see Covid being a distant memory. Anyone who suggests this is living in cuckoo land. Rishi is the obvious choice clearly, but if the economic outlook is as bad as the forecasts its not going to be a great PR move - see Labour with Brown.

 

Plus at the next election I could see far more tactical voting between Labour, SNP, Greens & Lib Dems seeing as we don't have Corbyn in charge hell bent on forcing a large Conversative majority on us all.

Tactical voting in Scotland plays out along nationalist/unionist lines rather than anti-Tory lines. See the many councils where the Tories are propped up by labour or libdems where the SNP are the biggest party.

 

Im currently working on the basis that Scotland won’t be voting in 2024 for Westminster’s election