There was a poll the other day that had a Labour (-3) and Green (+3) that got people talking a bit. Honestly though, it feels like that while a bit of this is Labour a bit weaker than otherwise and some of its coalition is gone to the Greens, some of it may also be former Lib Dems.

 

There's also a bit of talk I've seen about how this is Labour's patriotism but I think that is the right route for them in the long run, promote a kind of patriotism that makes voters want to stand up and make their country better and worthy of being beloved. More likely it's just the vaccine boost so the current 'need' for opposition to the government is lesser and voters are exploring other parties.

 

It's a really bad poll, on the one hand we should expect those right now, on the other, Labour should be doing far better given the government's handling of... everything. They need to be looking like they can govern well in advance of 2024.

There was a poll the other day that had a Labour (-3) and Green (+3) that got people talking a bit. Honestly though, it feels like that while a bit of this is Labour a bit weaker than otherwise and some of its coalition is gone to the Greens, some of it may also be former Lib Dems.

 

There's also a bit of talk I've seen about how this is Labour's patriotism but I think that is the right route for them in the long run, promote a kind of patriotism that makes voters want to stand up and make their country better and worthy of being beloved. More likely it's just the vaccine boost so the current 'need' for opposition to the government is lesser and voters are exploring other parties.

 

It's a really bad poll, on the one hand we should expect those right now, on the other, Labour should be doing far better given the government's handling of... everything. They need to be looking like they can govern well in advance of 2024.

 

The Government are riding off the back off of 14 million people getting vaccinated. Labour should probably be doing slightly better in the polls I agree, but the Tories will ride this wave until the spring at least and probably beyond.

 

Longer term I agree the patriotism move is where Labour need to move to and the reality is in 2024 if Labour were able to get in to power, it would be a coalition with the support of other parties. My only concern with Labour is the shadow Cabinet seem to be pretty weak in terms of media profiles. A couple of them could really do with getting their names out there a bit more and trying not to be so on the fence.

It's almost back to pre-coalition days but with the "plague on both your houses" vote evenly split between Lib Dems and Greens.

It's almost back to pre-coalition days but with the "plague on both your houses" vote evenly split between Lib Dems and Greens.

 

And the saddest thing about FPTP is that that 16% of votes would equate to just 9 seats. We desperately need electoral reform.

I'm expecting the Green Party to garner more and more support as the decade goes on. I wouldn't be surprised to see them polling in the 10-15% range in a few years.

 

One thing I'm interested in is to see if Nigel Farage's new party makes any splash. It could make a dent in the Con's numbers.

Why aren't Labour doing better? They are against the worst-performing, most authoritarian government in a century; they should be 20 points ahead, but they aren't! It must be the centrist leader. It just goes to show the UK is not a centrist country. Under a different leader, rhey would be 20 points ahead.

And the saddest thing about FPTP is that that 16% of votes would equate to just 9 seats. We desperately need electoral reform.

We've needed it desperately for decades!

Why aren't Labour doing better? They are against the worst-performing, most authoritarian government in a century; they should be 20 points ahead, but they aren't! It must be the centrist leader. It just goes to show the UK is not a centrist country. Under a different leader, rhey would be 20 points ahead.

 

Put your puff down Michael.

Under a different leader, they would be 20 points ahead.

 

 

Who would you suggest that may be then Michael?

Why aren't Labour doing better? They are against the worst-performing, most authoritarian government in a century; they should be 20 points ahead, but they aren't! It must be the centrist leader. It just goes to show the UK is not a centrist country. Under a different leader, rhey would be 20 points ahead.

 

Their leader isn’t challenging the government effectively even though it’s basically an open goal. It’s like Starmer is afraid of Johnson making new sound bites about him.

There's also a bit of talk I've seen about how this is Labour's patriotism but I think that is the right route for them in the long run, promote a kind of patriotism that makes voters want to stand up and make their country better and worthy of being beloved. More likely it's just the vaccine boost so the current 'need' for opposition to the government is lesser and voters are exploring other parties.

 

The boost for the Conservatives is definitely as a result of the successful vaccine rollout. However, I completely disagree with you that a focus on patriotism is the right route for Labour to fight back and win in 2024. I don't think those that shifted from LAbour>Conservatives (mainly in the over 65s) are ever coming back, for the simple reason of simple self-interest. Property owning boomers who have a nice pension linked up to the stock market are always going to favour the Conservatives who will do everything in their power to keep house prices artificially high. Secondly, I think that the disingenuous flag waving comes across as quite fake and the general public are not stupid and will see through it, possibly damaging their chances at an election win ever further. Furthermore it just doesn't speak to the younger generations who put climate change near the top of their political priorities, something that will require the nations of the world to work together closely for and not obsess or fall into this pit of damaging isolationist nationalism nonsense. We've seen how horrendous the collaboration has been globally on a pandemic, it will be even worse on climate change.

 

You don't win an election by attempting to win back part of an electorate that are sticky, have huge inertia and basically aren't moving - but instead motivating that larger progressive majority that at the moment just aren't voting in large enough numbers. Given the proposed boundary review is going to favour even more that aging electorate of boomers having an even more disproportionate impact on the election, I at this stage from what I've seen from Starmer see absolutely zero hope of Labour winning the 2024 election. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think sadly I will be.

The boost for the Conservatives is definitely as a result of the successful vaccine rollout. However, I completely disagree with you that a focus on patriotism is the right route for Labour to fight back and win in 2024. I don't think those that shifted from LAbour>Conservatives (mainly in the over 65s) are ever coming back, for the simple reason of simple self-interest. Property owning boomers who have a nice pension linked up to the stock market are always going to favour the Conservatives who will do everything in their power to keep house prices artificially high. Secondly, I think that the disingenuous flag waving comes across as quite fake and the general public are not stupid and will see through it, possibly damaging their chances at an election win ever further. Furthermore it just doesn't speak to the younger generations who put climate change near the top of their political priorities, something that will require the nations of the world to work together closely for and not obsess or fall into this pit of damaging isolationist nationalism nonsense. We've seen how horrendous the collaboration has been globally on a pandemic, it will be even worse on climate change.

 

You don't win an election by attempting to win back part of an electorate that are sticky, have huge inertia and basically aren't moving - but instead motivating that larger progressive majority that at the moment just aren't voting in large enough numbers. Given the proposed boundary review is going to favour even more that aging electorate of boomers having an even more disproportionate impact on the election, I at this stage from what I've seen from Starmer see absolutely zero hope of Labour winning the 2024 election. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think sadly I will be.

 

But I can present a counter argument that going after the progressive vote will turn a lot of Labour voters off, especially in the heartlands up north and voters over 40+. While I am all for some progressive change, the harsh reality is lots of the electorate don't like change and if you push too much, they will go and cast their vote elsewhere out of fear. It's kind of a lose-lose situation.

I completely disagree, the public WANTED change and Boris Johnson was offering that. Leaving the EU, a fresh start, loads of new hospitals. It was quite a left leaning (but socially conservative ) approach, and it worked.

 

It bugs the centrists, but it's true.

 

Edit- also, the age at which you were more likely to vote Conservative than Labour surged to 47 in 2017 under Corbyn's progressive manifesto.

But I can present a counter argument that going after the progressive vote will turn a lot of Labour voters off, especially in the heartlands up north and voters over 40+. While I am all for some progressive change, the harsh reality is lots of the electorate don't like change and if you push too much, they will go and cast their vote elsewhere out of fear. It's kind of a lose-lose situation.

 

Worked fine in 2017 before the media savaged Corbyn, and he still got more votes in 2020 AFTER said savaging than Blair. The policies were only ever a problem so much as it made the establishment go on fight for its privileged life mode.

I completely disagree, the public WANTED change and Boris Johnson was offering that. Leaving the EU, a fresh start, loads of new hospitals. It was quite a left leaning (but socially conservative ) approach, and it worked.

 

It bugs the centrists, but it's true.

 

Edit- also, the age at which you were more likely to vote Conservative than Labour surged to 47 in 2017 under Corbyn's progressive manifesto.

 

I think you're mixing up what change I mean. There are a lot of people, most middle aged who see so much change in the world it scares them. I don't think Labour need to win these types of votes, but they definitely need to avoid any sort of idealism that excludes them for this and are idological fault they may have. Labour focusing on patriotism isn't necessarily a bad thing if it is done right - e.g. increase in spending on public services & NHS for example.

Edit- also, the age at which you were more likely to vote Conservative than Labour surged to 47 in 2017 under Corbyn's progressive manifesto.

 

Which dropped back down to 39 at the 2019 General Election.

I think you're mixing up what change I mean. There are a lot of people, most middle aged who see so much change in the world it scares them. I don't think Labour need to win these types of votes, but they definitely need to avoid any sort of idealism that excludes them for this and are idological fault they may have. Labour focusing on patriotism isn't necessarily a bad thing if it is done right - e.g. increase in spending on public services & NHS for example.

 

Yeah, I see what you mean Rooney. I just think the focus on patriotism is wrong - it will continue to erode Labour's support in Wales and Scotland and fail to really pick up any votes elsewhere because nobody is buying it.

 

Also the desperate attempt to conveniently get the public to forget that he supported a second referendum when he was the driving force behind it (and the eventual 2019 electoral drubbing it led to) is comedy value.

Yeah, I see what you mean Rooney. I just think the focus on patriotism is wrong - it will continue to erode Labour's support in Wales and Scotland and fail to really pick up any votes elsewhere because nobody is buying it.

 

Also the desperate attempt to conveniently get the public to forget that he supported a second referendum when he was the driving force behind it (and the eventual 2019 electoral drubbing it led to) is comedy value.

 

It could be wrong but who knows. Whatever Labour were doing before wasn't working either. I think if it is done right and the pandemic leads to greater increases in people wanting the Government to invest in UK based public services then it could be good.

 

Starmer has to forget about the second referendum, as does the whole country. I think in the end, a lot of us who were Pro-EU ultimately forgot that while there were many people who voted to stay in the EU, a large proportion of these people just wanted it over and done with. It's done now and we have to move on as a country in the medium term.

The boost for the Conservatives is definitely as a result of the successful vaccine rollout. However, I completely disagree with you that a focus on patriotism is the right route for Labour to fight back and win in 2024. I don't think those that shifted from LAbour>Conservatives (mainly in the over 65s) are ever coming back, for the simple reason of simple self-interest. Property owning boomers who have a nice pension linked up to the stock market are always going to favour the Conservatives who will do everything in their power to keep house prices artificially high. Secondly, I think that the disingenuous flag waving comes across as quite fake and the general public are not stupid and will see through it, possibly damaging their chances at an election win ever further. Furthermore it just doesn't speak to the younger generations who put climate change near the top of their political priorities, something that will require the nations of the world to work together closely for and not obsess or fall into this pit of damaging isolationist nationalism nonsense. We've seen how horrendous the collaboration has been globally on a pandemic, it will be even worse on climate change.

 

You don't win an election by attempting to win back part of an electorate that are sticky, have huge inertia and basically aren't moving - but instead motivating that larger progressive majority that at the moment just aren't voting in large enough numbers. Given the proposed boundary review is going to favour even more that aging electorate of boomers having an even more disproportionate impact on the election, I at this stage from what I've seen from Starmer see absolutely zero hope of Labour winning the 2024 election. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think sadly I will be.

 

Mostly I'm in agreement with Rooney on this, largely because I don't want to abandon easy rhetoric about 'levelling the country up' and 'being proud of your country' to the right, which can definitely be done without falling to nationalism. I think it can be done without losing left-leaning principles, including shifting the ideas of patriotism around to be less uncritically loving of the past so that when elements of the left (which I am in full agreement with) start to bring up, say, legitimate criticisms of Churchill, that that can be done without the general public losing its shit at our side. I see Labour looking towards elements of English patriotism as something needed so we can start to reclaim it from its poisonous associations.

 

I think the future progressive majority are able to accept a bit of flag-waving that isn't harmful. It's the sort of thing that gets them better press in the long run and while it probably won't win many votes itself, it's a backbone for the average voter to consider them. It doesn't have to be exclusive to internationalism either, which is definitely more broadly the better way forward. My main concern about Labour is what they'll be offering to structurally challenge the age divide and inequality in the country, that's what will win or lose them the younger progressives. Perhaps I shouldn't have said a focus, I just want them to have it so they don't get hit with easy attacks.

 

If Labour are going to have a future in the UK before it gets broken up, they'll need that. I do think you definitely have a point about how their issues are bad in the devolved areas and patriotism won't help and will come across as too England-centric, it's depressing when the best projection I can come up with for them is that they'd do best with the UK broken up as fast as possible. Outflanking the SNP on progressive Scottish nationalism is pretty impossible and unfortunately detrimental to their chances elsewhere, as for Wales, their lack of major opposition to Westminster might hurt them in the long run.

All the polls make me think now is how do Labour win a majority government without Scotland?