:lol: excellent

I did not post her tirade as it was full of expletives and against Northerners.

I've looked at a few local authorities that do NOT have a university as well as Brighton & hove that has two. All their charts show a similar pattern to Exeter. Could it be that the weather got colder in October leading to more people gathering indoors rather than out?

I've looked at a few local authorities that do NOT have a university as well as Brighton & hove that has two. All their charts show a similar pattern to Exeter. Could it be that the weather got colder in October leading to more people gathering indoors rather than out?

 

That doesn't explain why the greatest number of cases/100,000 are in major university cities though? It hasn't been colder there!

 

Exeter has a rate of 267.9 per 100K.

Mid-Devon is at 45 per 100K.

 

Certainly there has been an increase widely and that is likely due to a number of factors including more mixing indoors (because of the colder weather), but the sharper increases show a considerable correlation with university cities.

But also you look at St Andrews and not only does the town not have the same curve but the county as a whole doesn’t. At Andrews is a very small town with a very high student population for its size (16k vs 9k) and the case levels there are very low. So I think that just blaming students and university towns is an over simplification and there’s clearly other matters at play like Simon suggests

Its not that students were inherently the problem - as in students due to BEING STUDENTS or due to THEIR BEHAVIOUR.

 

Rather its that student households forcibly mixed adults in a sustained way, in a way in which all of our other measures had been designed to prevent since April.

 

Take the example of households A, B, C and D, each of three adults. These are four households before going back to uni.

If someone in household D gets covid, they can only infect their two shared household adults.

However, if infected person D moves to uni, that household immediately expands to 10 people. Asymptomatic transmission is higher in younger people - with young adults prone to be superspreaders. Teaching doesn't need masks or social distancing. So infected person D will very quickly - just through being part of a new household and going to uni, following all the rules they've been told - be spreading the illness.

 

So much of the rhetoric about students fails to address that and instead peddles the idea that students INHERENTLY are careless and through reckless behaviour caused the issue, rather than everything about the student's baseline situation being set up to spread the illness even if all rules were obeyed.

 

E: Re the discussion above, it will be student accommodation that's the driving factor. A rich uni like St Andrews is less likely to make students share 10-bed cramped flats with shared facilities, which will limit how much damage spread can do off the bat. Whereas Northern England unis will be the opposite.

That doesn't explain why the greatest number of cases/100,000 are in major university cities though? It hasn't been colder there!

 

Exeter has a rate of 267.9 per 100K.

Mid-Devon is at 45 per 100K.

 

Certainly there has been an increase widely and that is likely due to a number of factors including more mixing indoors (because of the colder weather), but the sharper increases show a considerable correlation with university cities.

I'm sure you have been told many times that a correlation does not necessarily mean there is a causal relationship. There is a 99% correlation between the divorce rate in Maine and the US-wide consumption of margarine.

But also you look at St Andrews and not only does the town not have the same curve but the county as a whole doesn’t. At Andrews is a very small town with a very high student population for its size (16k vs 9k) and the case levels there are very low. So I think that just blaming students and university towns is an over simplification and there’s clearly other matters at play like Simon suggests

 

Have you got a link to that data, I can only see Fife?

Yes I’ve got a link. It’s been a fortnight since I last saw it so the cases have risen from 7 in St Andrews Central to 14. Still very low for a University town. The Uni is spread over the Neighbourhood of St Andrews North & Strathkinnes (all most all the self catered halls are here), St Andrews Central (HMO & Catered Halls) and St Andrews East (Self-Catered)

 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covi...643010/Overview

 

 

Public Health Scotland provide data at the neighbourhood level, it’s really good and handy dashboard. It’s taken them a long time to get to this level but I am really impressed by the level of detail they’ve provided the stats at.

 

 

Fife being both a central belt county and a university area is bucking the Scotland wide trend somewhat on new cases. There are some but not as many as the surrounding areas (Forth Valley to the west/south west & Lothian to the south)

Yes I’ve got a link. It’s been a fortnight since I last saw it so the cases have risen from 7 in St Andrews Central to 14. Still very low for a University town. The Uni is spread over the Neighbourhood of St Andrews North & Strathkinnes (all most all the self catered halls are here), St Andrews Central (HMO & Catered Halls) and St Andrews East (Self-Catered)

 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covi...643010/Overview

Public Health Scotland provide data at the neighbourhood level, it’s really good and handy dashboard. It’s taken them a long time to get to this level but I am really impressed by the level of detail they’ve provided the stats at.

Fife being both a central belt county and a university area is bucking the Scotland wide trend somewhat on new cases. There are some but not as many as the surrounding areas (Forth Valley to the west/south west & Lothian to the south)

 

Ok thanks -it is certainly better presented than the UK government tracker.

 

The case rate in Fife has climbed 10 times from 5/100K to 50/100K since the university reopened but the rate hasn't been as explosive as other areas granted.

 

There was certainly a lot of evidence available to the government to show that reopening universities could create large local spikes: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3365

 

But we know this was ignored because of our rentier economy: https://novaramedia.com/2020/09/29/covid-19...xploiting-them/

 

Needless to say, I am not blaming students here. Far from it, it is the ridiculous decision to encourage students to return to halls despite most courses being taught online this term.

But also you look at St Andrews and not only does the town not have the same curve but the county as a whole doesn’t. At Andrews is a very small town with a very high student population for its size (16k vs 9k) and the case levels there are very low. So I think that just blaming students and university towns is an over simplification and there’s clearly other matters at play like Simon suggests

 

I am not sure I agree. My City won't be far off Tier 3 at this rate.

 

I don't blame students for going back to University. But they have to take some accountability for their actions. Seen numerous local interviews where they drag about no social distancing and they don't want to be locked down as they "have had a shot year and want to have fun". Feck right off.

 

In my City, the University borough accounts for 70-75% of the cases on a daily basis. I can see the data on a neighbourhood level too. I do agree they are being demonised but the figures in the student population have pushed the numbers through the roof where I live, this is a fact. And all the measures being implemented won't do much.. guess the scores on the doors will be in 2-3 weeks if that particular borough stays high and the rest level off. I'm in favour of locking down the local area if that's the case rather than the whole city.

From BBC News

 

"THE coronavirus pub curfew should be pulled forward to 6PM “or even earlier”, government health chief Jonathan Van-Tam has said.

 

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer reportedly made the comments when grilled by MPs over the effectiveness of the current 10PM closing time.

 

Mr Van-Tam was speaking to Greater Manchester MPs during a virtual summit on Thursday as ministers tried to persuade them to adhere to a Tier 3 lockdown in the region, the Telegraph reports.

 

According to one MP, when asked if the curfew had affected transmission rates, he said: “Not really. I’d prefer 6pm, or even earlier.”

 

Mr Van-Tam was also reportedly asked if closing pubs and bars altogether would help get a hold of the crisis, but he replied there was no guarantee.

 

 

His curfew comments came as Boris Johnson is locked in a bitter stand-off with the North over a covid clampdown.

 

Downing Street wants to plunge Greater Manchester into Tier 3 – the strictest lockdown conditions – meaning that pubs and bars will be closed unless they serve meals and households are banned from mixing indoors and in gardens.

 

But Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and other regional leaders have refused to accept the restrictions without greater financial support.

 

Mr Burnham has accused No10 of treating the North with “contempt” and called on the government to provide evidence that pub closures would work.

 

This weekend has seen crowds of drinkers gathering outside bars in central London’s Soho at closing time.

 

While 100 people were involved in incidents in Chippenham, Wiltshire, shortly before the 10pm curfew, cops said.

 

There were a number of reports of anti-social behaviour and a Section 35 dispersal order was enforced, which bans people from visiting the area for up to 48 hours.

Edited October 19, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

Wales to go in to national lockdown from Friday (until 9 November).

 

@1318151052072570880

Let's see if England and Scotland will follow..

What I (unfortunately) think will happen is they'll all have this 2-week lockdown (likely followed by ENG & SCO) but then the figures will still be stark because they'll be related to previous weeks' cases pre-lockdown so they'll keep on extending it. They did this the first time round, it was a 3-week lockdown then afterwards it was extended by another 3-weeks etc. so I fear this won't be a "short, sharp" lockdown as they've mentioned but one that will ultimately stretch through until at least December, by which time the reduction in cases should have manifested.

 

Obviously this all means nothing if noone follows it as strictly this time round but one can always speculate.

What I (unfortunately) think will happen is they'll all have this 2-week lockdown (likely followed by ENG & SCO) but then the figures will still be stark because they'll be related to previous weeks' cases pre-lockdown so they'll keep on extending it. They did this the first time round, it was a 3-week lockdown then afterwards it was extended by another 3-weeks etc. so I fear this won't be a "short, sharp" lockdown as they've mentioned but one that will ultimately stretch through until at least December, by which time the reduction in cases should have manifested.

 

Obviously this all means nothing if noone follows it as strictly this time round but one can always speculate.

 

Yes 3 weeks circuit breaker is nowhere near long enough to stem the rise in spread, maybe back in early/mid September it would have been but not now.

 

 

Yes 3 weeks circuit breaker is nowhere near long enough to stem the rise in spread, maybe back in early/mid September it would have been but not now.

 

This is all about biding time now for a vaccine/treatment. Looks like there will be something available in December/January but that's no good if our hospitals are at full capacity when its barely November.

Do you believe that though? I can't believe a fully successfully proven vaccine which has gone through all the relevant authorities will be widely available as soon as that considering how long it typically takes. Then on top of it there's the issue of public trust/willingness. Completely agree that the hospitals can't be overloaded but a 2-week circuit breaker isn't going to do anything in the medium-term. I personally hope it doesn't come to this but it looks as if they either have to choose between an undefined lockdown like first time round or none at all. A halfway house isn't really helping anyone imo.

Do you believe that though? I can't believe a fully successfully proven vaccine which has gone through all the relevant authorities will be widely available as soon as that considering how long it typically takes. Then on top of it there's the issue of public trust/willingness. Completely agree that the hospitals can't be overloaded but a 2-week circuit breaker isn't going to do anything in the medium-term. I personally hope it doesn't come to this but it looks as if they either have to choose between an undefined lockdown like first time round or none at all. A halfway house isn't really helping anyone imo.

 

Yes totally believe it, although it won't be widely available. Essential workers and then the vulnerable, that would at least unlock the doors somewhat to get us out of the mess. I've been keeping on top of all the news, seems likely to be deployed in 2021 Q1. We have barely started the flu vaccination programme either, which I believe is why the medical professionals are wanting tougher measures.

 

The problem the country has got is you're going to be asking medical professionals to choose who lives and who dies. We're not even in peak respiratory virus season yet and our hospitals look like in 2-3 weeks time they won't cope. At least a circuit breaker pushes that back 5-6 weeks. I don't like it as much as anyone, but they can't do nothing. At least a circuit breaker stops school transmission.

Load of shite if Scotland has one, we've just had two weeks of a harder lockdown than the rest of the UK already, which was pitched as what we'd be doing to avoid a circuit breaker full lockdown.

 

If it turns out we get one of those as well on top I can see a lot of rebellion tbh. Especially in places like Glasgow (or Aberdeen too?) that haven't even had the rule of 6 yet and have been in total forbidding household mixing restrictions since 6 weeks ago.