Public Health Scotland has a Tableau dashboard where you can see the demographics and most cases are in Men aged 25 to 44. Vax effects are evident though with no uptick in 85+ and a much lower uptick in the over 75s than in the general population. So it appears that the populations that have been fully vaccinated are still being well protected so far, this is at least some good news.

It's certainly looking like the UK is heading for a substantial 'exit' wave that may even eclipse January given the insistence that full unlocking will go ahead. The only saving grace so far is hospitalisations remaining relatively stable despite the surge in cases.

 

What's strange is the surge in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK? All nations have similar vaccine uptake (Wales a bit ahead) and fairly similar level of restrictions.

 

It does seem more than a coincide that the big surge started in the 48 hours following England v Scotland! That really can't have helped at all.

As to why Scotland would be worse I definitely think lockdown fatigue is the culprit.

 

Too much for too long was always going to drive people to breaking point.

As to why Scotland would be worse I definitely think lockdown fatigue is the culprit.

 

Too much for too long was always going to drive people to breaking point.

 

Really think Scotland having lower levels of natural immunity is having an effect due to lower infections before.

After not doing too much/being really safe the last year or so, I'm finally getting back to some sense of normality. I met up with some friends I hadn't seen at a pub last week which was a lot of fun and today I went to the cinema with some friends for the first time in a long time.

 

I've had my first dose and try to be safe/wash hands etc. I'm feeling quite positive at the moment and hope that even with the surge in cases, things will work out to be OK. Vaccination and continuing with some safety procedures (mask/washing hands etc) I feel good about. First dose of vaccine is 75% effective vs hospitalisation after a couple weeks and adhering to safety procedures should help reduce the initial viral load if I were to contract covid.

 

Looking forward to my second dose though in August. After my second dose I think I'll be confident to do non-socially distanced activities again like going to a club/bar.

Humza Yousaf this morning admitting that Football is a leading cause of the spike. Partly from everyone watching indoors together and partly from all the party Trains, Planes & Busses that went down to London.

 

Speaking on Good Morning Scotland today he noted that there is a major disproportionate skew towards men under 40 in the case numbers.

 

 

 

*However* the lack of up tick in the populations with near complete vaccination programmes is a very good bit of news for everyone watching in concern.

Interesting thread here from Prof. Christina Pagel (Indie SAGE) who is advocating for children to be vaccinated and arguing against current Government policy.

 

Assuming the Delta variant of Covid-19 has an R₀ of 7 that would require 1−( 1 / 7) = 85% of the population to be vaccinated to arrive at effective herd immunity. Children make up approx. 21% of the population in England, therefore you cannot get to herd immunity without vaccinating children, or simply letting the virus rip through the <18 population.

 

@1409865926942642178

Good points & I agree

I see a lot of articles today complaining about school bubbles isolating and suggesting we need to stop isolating bubbles when cases are confirmed. It has been a big annoyance but on the other hand, steps have never been made to make schools safe. And if we can lift these kind of restrictions in the places most heavily populated with unvaccinated people, then why would we hold on to restrictions in other places?

 

Always nice to know that children are an inconvenience.

Interesting thread here from Prof. Christina Pagel (Indie SAGE) who is advocating for children to be vaccinated and arguing against current Government policy.

 

Assuming the Delta variant of Covid-19 has an R₀ of 7 that would require 1−( 1 / 7) = 85% of the population to be vaccinated to arrive at effective herd immunity. Children make up approx. 21% of the population in England, therefore you cannot get to herd immunity without vaccinating children, or simply letting the virus rip through the <18 population.

 

@1409865926942642178

 

Pfizer has been approved for use in 12-17 year olds by the MHRA and the data around it is good. Canada and the US have been vaccinating 12-17 year olds I believe, so it isn't as if no country is currently vaccinating people under 18. I do think we will see a change in policy and see a push to vaccinate secondary school children over the summer holidays/before the new school year.

 

I guess the main issue will be how quickly can the pfizer vaccine be supplied.

Perhaps a compromise should be that they should allow the vaccine for 12-17 year olds but the government/health service should not, in the media, promote vaccination for that age group in any way?

Edited June 29, 20213 yr by sn👠ke

Pfizer has been approved for use in 12-17 year olds by the MHRA and the data around it is good. Canada and the US have been vaccinating 12-17 year olds I believe, so it isn't as if no country is currently vaccinating people under 18. I do think we will see a change in policy and see a push to vaccinate secondary school children over the summer holidays/before the new school year.

 

I guess the main issue will be how quickly can the pfizer vaccine be supplied.

Was also approved by the EMA for this age group and some kids on the continent are getting it. About 1% of German kids in that age so far have had it, currently our vaccination committee only recommends that kids who are deemed to be clinically vulnerable be given it

 

 

Personally I think we should go all out to vaccinate as many of them as possible over the school holidays. Delta will rip through schools when they go back after the holidays so the more kids we can get dosed up the better chance we stand of minimising our 4th wave

So the UK now has more new cases than the entire EU, totally unrelated Iain Duncan Smith has called on the government to stop releasing the daily figures.

There was a commons Q&A with the nominated liar for Transport Grant Shapps. He irritated me with his shit answers so I did some light research to see if he was lying this morning and no surprise that he was

 

„Germany only sequences 1.5% we do 50%“ actually we did 19% last week but that varies by state and is as high as 35-40% in Berlin. „The JBC publishes all the data underpinning the traffic lights“ barefaced lie. JBC only published information for countries changing status not for countries on amber that by all forms of logic should be green. „The Data is published on JVCI & PHE“ another lie. No such data is published on either site. „EU27 have different vaccine passport systems“ Disingenuous and misleading. All have different front ends that connect to a single backend and the Uk gov DEFO knows that because they have been invited to participate. A vax passport from one is valid and verifiable in all.

 

 

Beyond sick of the UK And Scottish Govs not being open and honest about travel and the reasons for restrictions. It would be much easier to deal with if they just came out with the truth and said that they don’t want folks to travel at all so we will keep the green list super low. They don’t. So all you are left with is to assume the reasons they aren’t letting folks in is petty vindictiveness in return for shutting the borders to Brits.

It's so shitty to have to deal with. My sister gets marries back in England in early August and whilst as a fully vaxxed resident of Iceland there's nothing to stop me from going to the wedding, provided I have tests in and out...I'm just looking at the case numbers in the UK...and I'm like really? Do í really want to risk that? Say I test positive (vaccine doesn't stop you from getting it) and I'm stuck there for two weeks and I lose 2 weeks of work. :(

In no surprise whatsoever, the PM is now saying that the previous Terminus/Freedom day of July 19th may still have to have some precautions. As if the getting rid of all restrictions whatsoever can happen.

 

Personally although I love clubs and gigs I struggle to see how indoor events can happen without social distancing if it does create load on the NHS due to asymptomatic infections. Not sure what ones yet. Can't see them getting rid of masks in shops and on public transport although enforcing them will be a bugger.

Delta 37% of our cases now and estimated to already be as high as 50% - it was 17% a week ago. However, delta is becoming dominant while our overall case levels are continuing to fall nationwide. Think we stand at the beginning of the Delta wave for sure but with schools being out of session maybe our current restrictions on requiring negative tests for freedoms will be able to hold us over through the summer while we race towards Heard-immunity by the start of Sept.

 

4258 cases in the last 7 days in Germany. 4234 reported in the last 24h alone in Scotland. Scotland has completely lost the plot and thrown away so much work on aiming towards elimination. All the lockdown and extended restrictions in Glasgow for what?

It's so shitty to have to deal with. My sister gets marries back in England in early August and whilst as a fully vaxxed resident of Iceland there's nothing to stop me from going to the wedding, provided I have tests in and out...I'm just looking at the case numbers in the UK...and I'm like really? Do í really want to risk that? Say I test positive (vaccine doesn't stop you from getting it) and I'm stuck there for two weeks and I lose 2 weeks of work. :(

X-border families have just been hung out to dry. All the focus is on holiday destinations like the Spanish and Greek islands and the media fuel this too by constantly talking about „when can I go on my annual beach holiday to Benidorm where I spent 7 day in English bars screaming English slowly and loudly at Spanish waiters in lieu of learning dos cervezas por favor“ instead of giving even an inch of column space to the millions who are either immigrants to the UK or emigrants from the UK.

I continue to be aghast at how the UK government has just blatantly lied, lied, lied for 18 months. And the toothless BBC refuses to challenge it.

 

Did you see the other night Boris was allowed to completely get away with a false claim with zero interrogation whatsoever? It was reported uncritically as if it were a fact. What is the place coming to?

So the UK now has more new cases than the entire EU, totally unrelated Iain Duncan Smith has called on the government to stop releasing the daily figures.

 

So I see the logic in this, but still too early. 28,000 cases again today in the U.K. but the spread is mainly around the younger groups. The Euros have clearly been a super spreader event and I really do the government/NHS need to do better to update the symptoms with the new covid variant. You’re gonna see this happen right across Europe (well, it’s already beginning to happen in some countries). I thought cases might get to 25-30k but if you haven’t been jabbed you’re going to be really vulnerable as we’re not at herd immunity yet.

 

Honestly at this point I don’t know why they don’t just bin schools off and shut early for the non-important groups. Education is obviously important but half the schools are self isolating, it’s a joke.

I continue to be aghast at how the UK government has just blatantly lied, lied, lied for 18 months. And the toothless BBC refuses to challenge it.

 

Did you see the other night Boris was allowed to completely get away with a false claim with zero interrogation whatsoever? It was reported uncritically as if it were a fact. What is the place coming to?

The BBC still hasn't adjusted their approach to allow for the fact that Johnson is a serial liar. It used to be possible for them to report "Party A says X but Party B says Y" and for that to count as balanced (leaving aside that all other parties are ignored). That was fine when the parties were simply offering different opinions but it doesn't work when one party lies much of the time.