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Padam Padam Week 8 Predictions 25 members have voted

  1. 1. How Will Things go on week 8?

    • It Will Climb
      18
    • It Will Drop
      5
    • Non Mover
      1
  2. 2. Is a New UK Peak Possible this week.

    • Yes a new peak is possible
      2
    • No, Number 8 will be its peak
      22
  3. 3. Australia

    • Do you think it can climb in Australia this week
      6
    • No it will keep dropping now and leave the chart
      18
  4. 4. Ireland

    • Yes it will climb and yet again reach a new peak
      4
    • No it drop
      14
    • It will be a non mover
      6

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I think Kylie should rise back into the top 10, perhaps even re-peaking. Taylor will be fairly front loaded and I can only see "I Can See You" from her latest release charting higher.

 

4 songs are going to ACR which should all fall below Kylie. Her spotify/apple music streaming is fairly consistent. Plus Kylie has reached new peaks on Amazon which should help boost the song a little bit.

 

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Not entirely sure about Australia or Ireland as I don't follow it's progress there but I put non mover for Ireland and Australia falling.

 

Still think #8 will be it's peak here but it's done so amazingly that it doesn't overly matter as longevity is just as essential and it's doing exactly that which is fab to see.

  • Author
I cant see it achieving any higher in the UK than Number 8 either which is still a massive result, id love to be proved wrong of course and for it to climb higher.
Let's form a prayer circle, and chant "number seven, number seven" over and over again - let's manifest it into happening x

^ :lol: We'll make it happen!

 

Here's my latest sales/chart summary post...

 

PADAM PADAM

 

WEEK 8:

 

Sunday 9th July - first look

#9

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 7:

 

Friday 7th July - final official chart position

#12 (=)

Overall Sales: 21,976 (+5,161)

Download Sales: 2,338 (+250)

Streaming Sales: 19,618 (+4,910)

Cassette Sales: 20 (+1)

 

Thursday 6th July - midweek

#12 (-1)

Overall Sales: 16,815 (+2,848)

Download Sales: 2,088 (+215)

Streaming Sales: 14,708 (+2,633)

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 19 (±0) [Cassettes?]

 

Wednesday 5th July - midweek

#11

Overall Sales: 13,967 (+2,750)

Download Sales: 1,873

Streaming Sales: 12,075

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 19 [Cassettes?]

 

Tuesday 4th July - midweek

(Position unknown)

Overall Sales: 10,947 (+1,928)

 

Monday 3rd July - midweek

#8 (-1)

Overall Sales: 9,019 (+3,953)

Download Sales: 1,414

Streaming Sales: 7,599

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 6 [Cassettes? / Note: CD Single no longer available, therefore has sold 0 copies]

 

Sunday 2nd July - first look

#7

Overall Sales: 5,066

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 6:

 

Friday 30th June - final official chart position

#10 (-1)

Overall Sales: 22,814 (+5,685)

^ Sales split unknown. My estimates: 20,130 streaming, 2,630 downloads, ~50 physicals (impossible to know how many physical sales might have been added)

 

Thursday 29th June - midweek

#9 (=)

Overall Sales: 17,129 (+3,279)

Physical Sales: 47 (±0) [CDs: 32 / Cassettes: 15]

Download Sales: 2,255 (+664)

Streaming Sales: 14,827 (+2,615)

 

Wednesday 28th June - midweek

#9

Overall Sales: 13,850

Physical Sales: 47

Download Sales: 1,591

Streaming Sales: 12,212

 

Tuesday 27th June - midweek

No update.

 

Monday 26th June - midweek

#9 (+1)

Overall Sales: 8,149

CD Sales: 27

Download Sales: 1,067

Streaming Sales: 6,985

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 70 [i'm assuming cassettes and download "bundle" sales]

 

Sunday 25th June - first look

#10

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 5:

 

Friday 23rd June - final official chart position

#8 (-1)

Overall Sales: 25,549 (+6,009)

Physical Sales: 304 (+31) [CDs: 115 / Cassettes: 189]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 25,245 (+5,978)

^ Streaming vs download split is unknown. My estimates: 22,025 streaming and 3,220 downloads.

 

Thursday 22nd June - midweek

#7 (=)

Overall Sales: 19,540 (+3,274)

Physical Sales: 273 (+11)

Download Sales: 2,868 (+319)

Streaming Sales: 16,399 (+2,944)

 

Wednesday 21st June - midweek

#7 (+1)

Overall Sales: 16,266 (+3,509)

Physical Sales: 262 (+38)

Download Sales: 2,549 (+353)

Streaming Sales: 13,455 (+3,118)

 

Tuesday 20th June - midweek

#8 (=)

Overall Sales: 12,757 (+2,365)

Physical Sales: 224 (+118) [CDs: 93 / Cassettes: 131]

Download Sales: 2,196 (+376)

Streaming Sales: 10,337 (+1,871)

 

Monday 19th June - midweek

#8 (-1)

Overall Sales: 10,392

Physical Sales: 106

Download Sales: 1,820

Streaming Sales: 8,466

 

Sunday 18th June - first look

#7

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 4:

 

Friday 16th June - final official chart position

#9 (+4)

Overall Sales: 25,867 (+7,959)

Physical Sales: 2,137 (+1,778) [CDs: 633 (+274) / Cassettes: 1,504]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 23,730 (+6,181)

^ Streaming vs download split is unknown. My estimates: 20,100 streaming and 3,600 downloads.

 

Thursday 15th June - midweek

#13 (+1)

Overall Sales: 17,908 (+4,184)

CD Sales: 359 (+113)

Download Sales: 3,112 (+466)

Streaming Sales: 14,437 (+3,605)

 

Wednesday 14th June - midweek

#14 (-1)

Overall Sales: 13,724 (+2,444)

CD Sales: 246 (+62)

Download Sales: 2,646 (+387)

Streaming Sales: 10,832 (+1,995)

 

Tuesday 13th June - midweek

#13 (-1)

Overall Sales: 11,280 (+3,314)

CD Sales: 184 (+86)

Download Sales: 2,259 (+369)

Streaming Sales: 8,837 (+2,859)

 

Monday 12th June - midweek (Missing Data: Apple Music, YouTube)

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966 (+3,131)

CD Sales: 98 (±0)

Download Sales: 1,890 (+394)

Streaming Sales: 5,978 (+2,737)

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10 (-7)

Overall Sales: 4,835 (+3,702)

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,496

Pure Sales: 1,594 (+461 // CD+Download Sales, combined)

Streaming Sales: 3,241

 

Saturday 10th June (#1: Sex Pistols / #2: BTS)

#3

Overall Sales: 1,133

Pure Sales: 1,133 (CD+Download Sales, combined)

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 3:

 

Friday 9th June - final official chart position

#12 (=)

Overall Sales: 20,837 (+4,955)

CD Sales: 2,598 (+241)

Download Sales: 2,567 (+450)

Streaming Sales: 15,672 (+4,264)

 

Thursday 8th June - midweek

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 15,882 (+1,974)

CD Sales: 2,357 (+64)

Download Sales: 2,117 (+386)

Streaming Sales: 11,408 (+1,524)

 

Wednesday 7th June - midweek

#10 (=)

Overall Sales: 13,908 (+3,026)

CD Sales: 2,293 (+16)

Download Sales: 1,731 (+380)

Streaming Sales: 9,884 (+2,630)

 

Tuesday 6th June - midweek

#10 (+1)

Overall Sales: 10,882 (+2,058)

CD Sales: 2,277 (+325)

Download Sales: 1,351

Streaming Sales: 7,254

 

Monday 5th June - midweek

#11 (-5)

Overall Sales: 8,824

CD Sales: 1,952 (22.12%)

Download Sales: Not revealed (12%)

Streaming Sales: Not revealed (66% = 65% Audio Streaming + 1% Video Streaming)

 

Sunday 4th June - first look

#6

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 2:

 

Friday 2nd June - final official chart position

#23 (+1)

Overall Sales: 15,788 (+4,108)

Download Sales: 2,811 (+358)

Streaming Sales: 12,977 (+3,750)

 

Thursday 1st June - midweek

#24 (=)

Overall Sales: 11,680 (+2,122)

Download Sales: 2,453 (+323)

Streaming Sales: 9,227 (+1,799)

 

Wednesday 31st May - midweek

#24 (=)

Overall Sales: 9,558 (+1,525)

Download Sales: 2,130 (+329)

Streaming Sales: 7,428 (+1,196)

 

Tuesday 30th May - midweek

#24

Overall Sales: 8,033

Download Sales: 1,801

Streaming Sales: 6,232

 

Monday 29th May - midweek

No update due to bank holiday

 

Sunday 28th May - first look

#18

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 1:

 

Friday 26th May - final official chart position

#26 (+2)

Overall Sales: 14,649 (+4,568)

Download Sales: 4,601 (+2,029)

Streaming Sales: 10,048 (+2,561)

 

Thursday 25th May - midweek

#28 (-1)

Overall Sales: 10,081 (+1,873)

Download Sales: 2,572 (+380)

Streaming Sales: 7,487 (+1,486)

 

Wednesday 24th May - midweek

#27 (=)

Overall Sales: 8,208 (+1,903)

Download Sales: 2,192 (+562)

Streaming Sales: 6,001 (+1,334)

 

Tuesday 23rd May - midweek

#27 (-1)

Overall Sales: 6,305 (+1,408)

Download Sales: 1,630 (+265)

Streaming Sales: 4,667 (+1,135)

 

Monday 22nd May - midweek

#26 (-5)

Overall Sales: 4,897 (+2,054)

Download Sales: 1,365

Streaming Sales: 3,532

 

Sunday 21st May - first look

#21

Overall Sales: 2,843

 

------------------------------------------

 

Friday - final official chart positions - comparisons

 

7th July - Week 7

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 21,976 (-838)

Download Sales: 2,338 (Estimate: About 300 less than previous week)

Streaming Sales: 19,618 (Estimate: About 500 less than previous week)

Cassette Sales: 20 (Estimate: About 30 less than previous week's physical total)

 

30th June - Week 6

#10 (-2)

Overall Sales: 22,814 (-2,735)

^ Estimates: 20,130 streaming, 2,630 downloads & ~50 physicals. Roughly -1,900(ish) streaming, -600(ish) downloads & -250(ish) physicals.

 

23rd June - Week 5

#8 (+1)

Overall Sales: 25,549 (-318)

Physical Sales: 304 (-1,833) [CDs: 115 (-518) / Cassettes: 189 (-1,315)]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 25,245 (+1,515)

^ Estimates: 22,025 streaming & 3,220 downloads. Roughly +1,900(ish) streaming & -400(ish) downloads.

 

16th June - Week 4

#9 (+3)

Overall Sales: 25,867 (+5,030)

Physical Sales: 2,137 (-461) [CDs: 633 (-1,965) / Cassettes: 1,504]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 23,730 (+5,491)

^ Estimates: 20,100 streaming & 3,600 downloads.

 

9th June - Week 3

#12 (+11)

Overall Sales: 20,837 (+5,049)

CD Sales: 2,598

Download Sales: 2,567 (-244)

Streaming Sales: 15,672 (+2,695)

 

2nd June - Week 2

#23 (+3)

Overall Sales: 15,788 (+1,139)

Download Sales: 2,811 (-1,790)

Streaming Sales: 12,977 (+2,929)

 

26th May - Week 1

#26

Overall Sales: 14,649

Download Sales: 4,601

Streaming Sales: 10,048

 

------------------------------------------

 

Totals

 

(The following data doesn't include sales achieved on Thursday 18th May) -

 

7 weeks overall total: 147,480

 

Approximate guess for 7 weeks of Streaming + Download sales, combined: 142,370 (estimate)

Approximate guess for 7 weeks of Streaming sales: 120,535 (estimate)

Approximate guess for 7 weeks of Download sales: 21,835 (estimate)

 

Approximate guess for 4 weeks of CD sales: 3,380 (estimate) (Note: It was taken off sale within 4 weeks of going on sale)

Approximate guess for 4 weeks of Cassette sales: 1,730 (estimate)

Approximate guess for 5 weeks of Physical sales: 5,110 (estimate)

 

Including an estimate of the Thursday 18th May sales (900 sales?), Padam Padam's overall total could now be approaching 148,400! Including around 26,950 pure sales (physicals + downloads).

I always love your sales update info.

:wub: I’m glad. It might be the only time I get to do this for a Kylie single so I’m making the most of it :lol:

  • Author

And i will make the post of you posting it!

Great to see padam padam at 9 again today, really hope it can hold on in the top 10 now but my gut feeling is it will.

Just hope the streaming holds up all year and PP achieves at least a Gold cert.

 

Thank you Jay, it’s been great tracking a bona fide Kylie streaming hit, helps understanding of the current chart system.

Edited by aeroco

Thank you Jay, it’s been great tracking a bona fide Kylie streaming hit, helps understanding of the current chart system.
Jay - the king of stats :cheer:

:wub: Thank you both!

From Ryan on SH FB :wub:

 

Tuesday Mid week Update

 

8 (12) Padam Padam

 

Sales: 10,623 (sales -5%, was -10% yesterday) smile.gif

 

Yesterday's sales (2,544) was the 12th biggest seller of the day (13 the day before)

 

Digital: 1,291

 

Streaming: 9,320

 

Aud: 995,648

 

Vid: 80,924

 

5) 12,332 6) 12,250 7) 11,623 8 ) 10,623 9) 10,572

 

More midweek info!

 

Firstly, Padam Padam has also sold 12 cassettes so far this week.

 

Its current streaming status is that it's -2.3% down on the previous Tuesday, so as things stand it is on course to start the decline to ACR. So far this week it has 1,076,572 streams. Unfortunately we weren't given last Tuesday's information... but it would have been something like 1,102,000. So that's approaching 25,500 less streams than the previous week.

 

Regarding Padam Padam being the 12th best seller of yesterday, these are yesterday's sales:

 

1. Midweek #1: 7,826 - Dave/Central Cee

2. Midweek #2: 5,371 - Olivia Rodrigo

3. Midweek #3: 3,448 - J Hus/Drake

4. Midweek #4: 3,427 - Taylor Swift (Cruel Summer)

5. Midweek #6: 3,396 - Taylor Swift (I Can See You)

6. Midweek #5: 3,117 - Peggy Gou

7. Midweek #7: 2,877 - Hannah Laing/RoRo

8. Midweek #12: 2,711 - D-Block Europe & Clavish

9. Midweek #11: 2,602 - Harry Styles

10. Midweek #14: 2,579 - The Weeknd/Madonna/Playboi Carti

11. Midweek #9: 2,545 - Nathan Dawe/Joel Corry/Ella Henderson

12. Midweek #8: 2,544 - Kylie Minogue

13. Midweek #16: 2,517 - Gunna

14. Midweek #13: 2,352 - Jorja Smith

15. Midweek #15: 2,122 - Dua Lipa

16. Midweek #17: 1,985 - Tom Grennan

17. Midweek #18: 1,980 - David Guetta/Anne-Marie/Coi Leray

18. Midweek #10: 1,905 - Taylor Swift (Mine)

19. Midweek #19: 1,903 - Anne-Marie/Shania Twain

20. Midweek #21: 1,871 - Loreen

 

~~~~

 

So Nathan Dawe only managed to sell 1 copy more than Kylie yesterday. The overall gap between them is just 51 copies, and Nathan is doing better than Kylie on streaming now. Although Kylie still has an edge with downloads. Comparisons:

 

Kylie: 1,291 downloads / 9,320 streaming / 12 cassettes

Nathan: 1,097 downloads / 9,475 streaming

 

Kylie's streaming is 98.36% of Nathan's streaming. Nathan's downloads are 84.97% of Kylie's streaming.

 

~~~~

 

The Weeknd... 35 more units than Kylie yesterday, and is 1,689 behind.

 

Harry Styles... 58 more units than Kylie yesterday, and is 717 behind.

 

D-Block Europe... 167 more units than Kylie yesterday, and is 804 behind.

 

~~~~

 

I assume Nathan Dawe will definitely end up ahead, the streaming is more in his favour and his downloads are at a similar level to Kylie and perhaps getting stronger than hers as this week goes on.

 

The Weeknd selling more yesterday doesn't seem to be a concern. I also think Kylie should be able to stay ahead of Harry.

 

Maybe D-Block Europe is a concern, but their downloads are weak (82 so far this week, vs. Kylie's 1,291) and their streaming isn't hugely stronger (9,737, vs. Kylie's 9,320). So who knows...

It seems so :cheeseblock: I think my prediction at this stage would be that it ends up at #9, I'll have some faith that it can stay ahead of D-Block Europe.

 

If it's any consolation for those who wanted it to be #7 (Me. I'm talking about myself. :kink: ) it looks like Padam Padam could end up being nearly 3k behind that position. So I doubt even my much longed for 7" vinyl would have made up that gap this week if it existed.

 

~

 

It's a bit annoying how sales were so high across the board when Padam Padam was at its strongest, but now the sales are quite a bit lower and Kylie unfortunately didn't remain consistent enough to take advantage of this.

 

For instance on Tuesday 20th June, Padam Padam was midweek #8 with 12,757 sales. Yesterday, Tuesday 11th July's midweek #3 (J Hus) sold only a bit more than that - 12,958, while #4 (Taylor Swift) has sold 12,407 so far this week.

Comparing Kylie with Peggy Gou and Hannah Laing, whose songs actually have managed #7 peaks so far. These are their weeks spent in the Top 20:

 

16/06 - #09: 25,867 | Kylie - Padam Padam *its highest sales*

23/06 - #08: 25,549 | Kylie - Padam Padam *its highest position*

30/06 - #07: 24,976 | Hannah Laing/RoRo - Good Love *its highest sales & highest position*

07/07 - #07: 24,946 | Peggy Gou - (It Goes Like) Nanana *its highest sales & highest position*

07/07 - #08: 24,838 | Hannah Laing/RoRo - Good Love

23/06 - #09: 24,715 | Hannah Laing/RoRo - Good Love

16/06 - #13: 24,260 | Hannah Laing/RoRo - Good Love

30/06 - #09: 22,817 | Peggy Gou - (It Goes Like) Nanana

30/06 - #10: 22,814 | Kylie - Padam Padam

07/07 - #12: 21,976 | Kylie - Padam Padam

09/06 - #12: 20,837 | Kylie - Padam Padam

23/06 - #14: 18,889 | Peggy Gou - (It Goes Like) Nanana

 

Assuming Peggy Gou might end up at #6 in the upcoming chart (currently midweek #5, but Taylor Swift could overtake)... and it seems that Peggy's sales this week could still end up being lower than Kylie's best sales week.

 

I'll get over this... at some point! Just unfortunate timing that Padam Padam peaked when the chart was more competitive.

  • Author
Really hope it can avoid acr decline for a while yet but hopefully whether it does or not padam padam can stay top 75 for a good while yet.

PADAM PADAM

 

WEEK 8:

 

Tuesday 11th July - midweek

#8 (+1)

Overall Sales: 10,623 (+2,544)

Download Sales: 1,291

Streaming Sales: 9,320

Cassette Sales: 12

 

Monday 10th July - midweek

#9 (=)

Overall Sales: 8,079

 

Sunday 9th July - first look

#9

 

We didn't get a sales breakdown on Monday, did we?

As it has been number 12/13 for the day on Sunday (published Monday) and Monday (published Tuesday) - then once the final Spotify data is added, I can’t help but think that it will just miss out on the top 10. I hope I’m wrong! Of course, an additional release/remix today or tomorrow should fix that, but it has been mentioned here that there are unlikely to be further releases.
As it has been number 12/13 for the day on Sunday (published Monday) and Monday (published Tuesday) - then once the final Spotify data is added, I can’t help but think that it will just miss out on the top 10. I hope I’m wrong! Of course, an additional release/remix today or tomorrow should fix that, but it has been mentioned here that there are unlikely to be further releases.

 

I think the only two real threats to her top 10 position, the 3rd Taylor song seems to be in freefall and I don't think 'Popular' is quite doing enough to make up the ground from starting the week at #15.

 

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