500k for Sophie is impressive - two weeks ago we’d have expected that to be enough for #1 at this point. I can’t see Ariana debuting ahead of Noah at this rate.

 

She has a ton of CD's and Vinyls for her single this week...

His is only the week after, so I guess she can do it this way (hope not).

Depends if it turns out to be a Flowers/Sprinter kind of hit or just another Positions level hit (in terms of peak weekly sales). Impossible to gauge before hearing the song.

 

If she has a million streams opening which can be maintained, plus physicals, then it's a done deal. If it's a 500-600k opening then it's not. I'm finding it difficult to determine the hype level around Ariana at the moment, it feels like she's been away for ages and not as big a deal as she was five years ago, but is that simply because she's been away for a while? Maybe demand is pent up and it will be gigantic, who knows.

I feel like the world’s moved on and she isn’t that big anymore, but I’m not down with the kids so could easily be wrong haha!

Depends if it turns out to be a Flowers/Sprinter kind of hit or just another Positions level hit (in terms of peak weekly sales). Impossible to gauge before hearing the song.

 

If she has a million streams opening which can be maintained, plus physicals, then it's a done deal. If it's a 500-600k opening then it's not. I'm finding it difficult to determine the hype level around Ariana at the moment, it feels like she's been away for ages and not as big a deal as she was five years ago, but is that simply because she's been away for a while? Maybe demand is pent up and it will be gigantic, who knows.

 

I’m so used to the big names underperforming recently (Ed, Lewis, Adele (yes I know Easy On Me was huge but still), Dua, Rihanna), idk it’s hard to imagine Ariana bucking the trend unless the song is an undeniable smash. No one is really guaranteed a hit anymore on name alone

I'm wondering if "Never Be Like You" could poke its head in. There's a Saltburn edit going around and it's tripled its plays on last.fm over the past week, currently #73 on Aus Spotify.

Ariana's hype has NOT faded. She probably doesn't "feel" as popular to you anymore because she hasn't released anything of note for a while, after having literal years of non-stop releases. People are ready for her comeback. Her social media hype is insane (and yes, I know social media hype =/= real hype - but she's a household name too.. not just a social media name) I'm fairly certain she will debut high and stay high for a while (although Noah is definitely exceeding my expectations atm too - no way did I envision him hitting 700k at any point this far into his chart life). I do think Ari will be comfortably over 600k every day for about a week. May even progress IF the song is actually any good and resonates with people. I can see Tik Tok immediately jumping on it too.

I have no doubt the first few days will be very decent numbers for Ariana. There will no doubt be a large number of curiosity streams due to name power and hype. Will all depend on the song quality, but would be surprised if the first week numbers are any less than Positions first week.

 

 

This year already panning out like last year lol SS like Escapism and Ariana will be the Miley of this Jan and everyone thought there was no new releases in week of new year!

She’s still the 3rd most streamed artist in the world….thats without releases. How on earth are people saying her popularity has declined. If the song is good, it will be huge. If not, maybe just a week at no1.

She’s still the 3rd most streamed artist in the world….thats without releases. How on earth are people saying her popularity has declined. If the song is good, it will be huge. If not, maybe just a week at no1.

 

What? She's 16, how 3?

Anyway, she's big and all but not she's not 3rd.

After all the cack we get to number 1 over the last few years, I don't think the "song quality" will matter :lol: Nowadays, it will all depends on playlisting and how she/her team capitalises on the singles performance/how it will do on Tik Tok. Immediate (high) adds to all the main playlists and like I said, Tik Tok will be all over it, I imagine.

It's true, Ariana is 3rd in the world right now for monthly listeners on Spotify, behind only The Weeknd and Taylor Swift, you can see this info when scrolling to the bottom of an artist's page:

 

 

-x-

 

Nice to have a high profile release around the corner already a la Miley last year. It shall be interesting to see how both Ari and Lil Nas X do this week. In the 2024 predictions thread I included a #1 single for Ariana and a top 10 single for Lil Nas X this year so here's hoping to be able to tick something off. Who knows though, hard to say anything without even hearing either song yet :lol:

 

Amazing to see Sophie on 500k+ btw!

Spotify:

 

 

New Peak:

 

7. Teddy Swims- Lose Control

12. Drake, Sexyy Red, SZA- Rich Baby Daddy

26. Natasha Bedingfield- Unwritten

42. Mason, Princess Superstar- Perfect (Exceeder)

50. Zach Bryan- Something in the Orange

55. Songer, BL@CKBOX- Toxic (Freestyle)

62. Chris Brown- Angel Numbers/ Ten Toes

67. Flo Milli- Never Lose Me

85. Kanye West, Chris Martin- Homecoming

105. Timbaland, Keri Hilson, D.O.E.- The Way I Are

121. Hozier- Work Song

148. Creedence Clearwater Revival- Fortunate Son

 

 

Re-Entries:

 

157. Lewis Capaldi- Bruises

163. Rihanna, Mikky Ekko- Stay

171. Linkin Park- In the End

176. Billie Eilish- ocean eyes

187. Lewis Capaldi- Before You Go

191. Adele- Someone Like You

193. Kanye West, Labi Siffre- I Wonder

197. Wheatus- Teenage Dirtbag

198. The Police- Every Breath You Take

It's true, Ariana is 3rd in the world right now for monthly listeners on Spotify, behind only The Weeknd and Taylor Swift, you can see this info when scrolling to the bottom of an artist's page:

 

The fact that she has a very popular Christmas song definitely boosts this tho. Mariah’s currently #8 and I doubt she’d be top 100 normally.

I can’t confirm as I don’t follow it that closely, but I’m pretty sure Ariana is consistently high, even without xmas!

Yes Ariana has been high for ages. I do think she wasn’t this high prior to Xmas but she has been top 10 for ages. I think there’s hype. Maybe it’s just the side of the Internet I’m on but I’m constantly hearing about her comeback. I think she’ll manage #1, though stick season keeps getting bigger and bigger so I’m not sure if she’ll hold on like Miley did.

I wouldn't expect Ariana to chart any lower than #1 (i imagine her team expects no less either) especially given this is a proper comeback single, by the time Positions came out she'd barely been away a few months

 

Too early to say if it'll be dominant mass appeal hit like Flowers, if the song turns out to be generic and inoffensive enough then it could (though supposedly it's gonna have a disco/house kinda sound so....the jury's still out on that I guess x)

 

Dua Lipa is releasing a London Sessions version of Houdini tonight. It sounds incredible from the clips I've heard on X :w00t:

See I feel like there is quite a bit of hype for the Ariana comeback but it's really hard to gauge if that's just among online people or if the general public will be eagerly anticipating new music from her. My only prediction is that someone will unironically call it a flop no matter how well it does :kink:

 

Yay for 'Something In The Orange' cracking the top 50 *.*

Ariana is also doing a mv and there’ vinyl singles on her store too! I’m confident for a #1 debut but I’m not sure how long she’ll hold it