The only way most of the press could have come up with pretty much the same story on Sunday's announcement can be from a government source.

 

Most of the plans are already out there, you just need to piece the puzzle together. Not saying there isn't a leak in the government though, clearly the hard-right in the party want the economy opened as quick as possible. Problem we have now is social distancing is going to kill a large part of the economy full stop.

@1258497092953219072

Interesting analysis on stats from europe

Yes, in Britain there's no way that such a small proportion of coronavirus deaths are occurring in care homes. Even with the official stats, the UK edges out in front of Italy, Spain and Belgium as the worst hit country. The true figures - once undercounting is taken into account - are likely to reveal that it's the worst hit European country by a huge distance.

Edited May 8, 20205 yr by Harve

The only way most of the press could have come up with pretty much the same story on Sunday's announcement can be from a government source.

 

100% THIS!! And that official was Demonic Cummings.

Yes, in Britain there's no way that such a small proportion of coronavirus deaths are occurring in care homes. Even with the official stats, the UK edges out in front of Italy, Spain and Belgium as the worst hit country. The true figures - once undercounting is taken into account - are likely to reveal that it's the worst hit European country by a huge distance.

The key figure is the percentage of extra deaths (above the long-term average for the time of year) attributed to coronavirus. In Germany, France, Sweden and Belgium almost all of the excess deaths are officially due to coronavirus. It is reasonable to assume that the same is true throughout Europe in the absence of any other plausible explanation. That suggests that the figures from Germany, France, Sweden and Belgium are pretty accurate but that the real figures from the UK and the Netherlands are probably almost double the official figure. The notable absence from that graphic is Italy.

4649 new cases, 626 deaths. We do not have this under control.

4649 new cases, 626 deaths. We do not have this under control.

The number of deaths is down from 2 weeks ago and the test capacity has gone up to show more cases, so I do think it’s under control and lockdown is working.

 

However, the care home tragedy needs to be urgently tackled.

The number of deaths is down from 2 weeks ago and the test capacity has gone up to show more cases, so I do think it’s under control and lockdown is working.

 

However, the care home tragedy needs to be urgently tackled.

But the fall in deaths hasn't been nearly as steep as other countries. When 600 people are dying in one day it is not under control.

The lockdown has clearly worked - community spread and therefore the effective 'R' number have fallen dramatically.

 

I can only assume that the additional cases and deaths are now mainly spread through hospitals and care homes. My friend's grandfather was admitted to hospital with an unrelated illness, contracted Covid-19 in hospital (but did not show symptoms until after), was discharged, but was not tested and has tragically died subsequently. My friend is completely distraught and furious with government. Understandably.

 

The government has also eroded public trust through the massaging of the daily testing figures so that they can self-congratulate themselves on developing sufficient testing capacity a full month after the virus cases peaked.

This isn’t heartless but....... deaths is a poor measure of what is happening now. It lags weeks if not more than a month behind the actual picture. Daily new cases is an ok measure but checking the number of new hospital admissions is probably the best measure to see how it’s going.

 

 

I remain unconvinced that it is under control. The number of new cases in Scotland are falling on a 7 day cumulative measure with increased testing but UK wide its a plateau. Somewhere in the country something is going badly wrong.

But the fall in deaths hasn't been nearly as steep as other countries. When 600 people are dying in one day it is not under control.

It’s been falling over the last couple of weeks so it is under control, especially given the addition of care home deaths to the stats now.

If it’s not under control in your opinion, what else can we do? We are almost the most extreme distancing. So what’s the cause of the lack of control?

If it’s not under control in your opinion, what else can we do? We are almost the most extreme distancing. So what’s the cause of the lack of control?

 

I think he means not under control within care homes / hospitals. The answer there would be: insufficient PPE.

I think he means not under control within care homes / hospitals. The answer there would be: insufficient PPE.

Fair point. Awful situation.

I have been saying it since Monday and I stick by it, sorry Rooney, but the time to make the announcement was BEFORE the holiday, not after.

 

NOT advising has led to people hedging their bets.

 

Not to crow or anything but EXACTLY what I predicted would happen, happened - despite the fact some of you were saying to me that the very idea that people would assume a change if no announcement came was ludicrous. The weather was hot, it was VE day, people knew that Boris was making a big announcement on Sunday - not Thursday, as they'd been prepared for - and so they assumed what the content of that announcement would be. And the fool government - DESPITE having daily briefings still every day - made ZERO effort to correct that assumption. With the result that loads of people - including many people in the most at-risk groups, over 60s and so on - literally went out into their streets and neighbours' houses to party and celebrate, paralleling the end of the war with, as they assumed, the end of lockdown.

I would argue though that anyone who broke the rules today did so because they were going to do so anyway, rather than because no announcement had been made. In my area no one broke the rules, people came out and had tea and cake on the doorstep with their families and had bunting up but no one actually broke the social distancing rules. I’m not sure about elsewhere but that’s what happened here.

 

So I don’t think any rule breaking was anything to do with uncertainty, just the same reckless people as always.

Well, whichever it was, bigging up 'an announcement' for Sunday did nobody any favours & is just (yet) another example of Boris's Tories trying to play this as a PR crisis rather than a medical crisis.

Well, whichever it was, bigging up 'an announcement' for Sunday did nobody any favours & is just (yet) another example of Boris's Tories trying to play this as a PR crisis rather than a medical crisis.

 

Oh no disagreement there. But I still suspect there was going to be a massive announcement of loosening restrictions and schools returning but they’ve had to go back after Scotland and Wales have not backed it. I completely believe they’re trying to read the public rather than lead them.

 

But who knows, maybe Boris will get up on Sunday and detail a coherent plan for exiting lockdown. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

I’ve seen Nicola Sturgeon getting so much abuse from non SNP voters online and people in England calling her selfish for extending the lockdown. We’re still having a large amount of cases and deaths and the longer we stay in lockdown the better chance we have of being able to get to normality quicker.

 

My only issue with the coronavirus is the lying of causes of death, I had a friend who died four weeks ago and it was non corona related but that was listed as reason of death. I’ve seen a lot of things on social media about people saying this too, I don’t get why the government would want to have more deaths listed as corona if they want to get back to some sort of normality!

Only those who have definitely tested positive will have Covid-19 on their death certificate - it is why the figures are actually significantly underestimated. Though it is difficult to assign a definitive cause in most cases as a majority have underlying health conditions which ultimately end up killing them, though they obviously have been exacerbated by the presense of the virus (so-called comorbidities).

 

What you are describing is what is happening in Belgium (e.g. all excess deaths are assumed to be Coronavirus related), though I would be wary about news on social media - much of it, particularly the reactionary stuff is fake.

I think he means not under control within care homes / hospitals. The answer there would be: insufficient PPE.

 

I know it’ll be an outlier, but in the care home that my grandad used to be in it seems like they have too much PPE and a lot is just sitting there not being used. :unsure: