I don't think there will be a second wave (=exponential growth in cases as in March and April), for what it's worth. Unless you mean a second wave to be a prolonged first wave, which is what we're seeing now.

 

There will probably continue to be local clusters sprouting up in places but in the context of a slow, Europe-wide decline.

@1272187402107457536

I have...no words lmao

Nah, those kept the 1st wave afloat

 

Edit: Also it was a RISK of a spike in new cases, but it seems like the good weather is playing a role as the BLM protest in Amsterdam also didnt cause a lot of new infections, which was feared.

 

But we do not know enough yet to be 100% sure about how this virus spreads in whichever circumstances. Thats why every risk is a scare at the same time. Just look at the recent flare up in Beijing

 

You have zero evidence to prove that is what specifically kept the first wave afloat,

You have zero evidence to prove that is what specifically kept the first wave afloat,

 

I don't think Tim was quite saying that - anyway, what do YOU think is the reason that the UK and the US have new case rates 10 X higher than most other western countries that have went through the peak of Covid-19 cases in late March?

You have zero evidence to prove that is what specifically kept the first wave afloat,

It sure was a contributing factor amongst other things though. The platteau is there.

 

However I do think the UK was on the right side of the decline when things started loosening etc. You only have to look at the south of the US to see what happens when restrictions are loosened too quickly

Germany is likely to ban big events till the end of october according to the news. Mutti Merkel is discussing that amongst loosening other resteictions today

@1273179792414855171

 

Our app has been downloaded 6,5m times in a day as well!!

 

We have a big flare up in Berlin but like everywhere it seems to be connected to a particular event rather than widespread community transmission. The authorities aren’t too worried.

 

 

Not opposed to mass events continuing to be banned to be honest. Feels like a smart precaution at this time. Some outdoor events should be able to return though as the risk is significantly lower

@1273179792414855171

 

Our app has been downloaded 6,5m times in a day as well!!

 

We have a big flare up in Berlin but like everywhere it seems to be connected to a particular event rather than widespread community transmission. The authorities aren’t too worried.

Not opposed to mass events continuing to be banned to be honest. Feels like a smart precaution at this time. Some outdoor events should be able to return though as the risk is significantly lower

 

Am I right in thinking most of the outbreaks across Western Europe have been predominately think to healthcare areas/ care homes post lockdown? And the odd big event, which can be tracked. Banning large events seems the most sensible, I would hope the UK would follow suit and continue to do so for the rest of 2020. Especially when we have new epicentres across India and Latin America.

 

It's why I'm starting to question the validity of the R0 number in the UK as there is such a low data set. In the city I live in we have had no new cases verified for 8 days now for example and I'm sure there are similar trends across the country in mid-size cities.

@1273179792414855171

 

Our app has been downloaded 6,5m times in a day as well!!

 

We have a big flare up in Berlin but like everywhere it seems to be connected to a particular event rather than widespread community transmission. The authorities aren’t too worried.

Not opposed to mass events continuing to be banned to be honest. Feels like a smart precaution at this time. Some outdoor events should be able to return though as the risk is significantly lower

The code for the app is open source which means it can be copied and adapted by other countries free of charge. The UK, meanwhile, blunders on trying to create its own "world-beating" app.

Am I right in thinking most of the outbreaks across Western Europe have been predominately think to healthcare areas/ care homes post lockdown? And the odd big event, which can be tracked. Banning large events seems the most sensible, I would hope the UK would follow suit and continue to do so for the rest of 2020. Especially when we have new epicentres across India and Latin America.

 

It's why I'm starting to question the validity of the R0 number in the UK as there is such a low data set. In the city I live in we have had no new cases verified for 8 days now for example and I'm sure there are similar trends across the country in mid-size cities.

The big outbreaks I know of in my neighbourhood are at a mink factory in NL, Coal mine in PL and about half a dozen meat processing factories across DE. Then within Germany there’s been quite a few linked to religious services, all Christian I believe. One apartment block in southern berlin has had a major outbreak, not wholly sure what it is linked to.

 

The R0 still has some value but when you’re on a low number of cases it is hyper volatile to small changes in infections

 

The code for the app is open source which means it can be copied and adapted by other countries free of charge. The UK, meanwhile, blunders on trying to create its own "world-beating" app.

The app is also pretty gold standard when it comes to data privacy, given the Nazi and DDR regimes it really needed to be in order to get the trust of people here to download it. Many are saying they won’t for data privacy reasons still, even with the precautions.

 

Hopefully they roll it out on the international App Store and other countries use it

Always the big worry with these apps, that they will be used for data tracking. The ones in China are directly tied to the big payment methods which force real-name and mobile number attachments, but it's not like I was expecting anything less.

 

If the German one is good on privacy and open source, then the only two reasons I can think for governments who haven't got their own yet to not use it is either to save face or because they wish to avail themselves of an opportunity for data harvesting.

I have it and can confirm it’s data privacy credentials. I haven’t had to give any details to sign up. No email of phone number. It has no location tracking abilities and when it warns about a contact being positive it doesn’t when where or who - mainly because it doesn’t know the last two.

 

You can only mark yourself as sick with a QR code from your health authorities following a positive test, so no false positives

The big outbreaks I know of in my neighbourhood are at a mink factory in NL, Coal mine in PL and about half a dozen meat processing factories across DE. Then within Germany there’s been quite a few linked to religious services, all Christian I believe. One apartment block in southern berlin has had a major outbreak, not wholly sure what it is linked to.

 

The R0 still has some value but when you’re on a low number of cases it is hyper volatile to small changes in infections

 

I didn't know there were so many big outbreaks, for me it just shows the benefit of a track and trace. It's naive across all countries to suspect there won't be any large outbreaks, but the key to it all is recognising if you are infected and then self isolating to stop the spread.

 

Totally agree about the R0 number as well, I think in the UK we are mainly OK. It does appear that some regions/areas seem to be badly affected more than others but the data that is shared does not allow us to make the assumption thoroughly.

 

Worrying for me is the growth of infection in India and Brazil in particular as I mentioned before. Seems like it has totally spiraled out of control, which is why I am all for the border restrictions/quarantine and possible air bridges with European countries in the short term at least. The news in Beijing is concerning as well as the symptoms appear to be different. But I have a hard time to believe what is coming out of China's mouth at the moment as it doesn't add up.

I'm not sure I trust everything about China's data but I do believe some things that suggest they contained it better than many European countries are broadly true. Unlike, say, the UK, I believe the virus has been indeed mostly contained to one province, and unlike France, community transmission has been eradicated more decisively, which would make China's situation a lot better than what catastrophists were claiming in March (my colleague was talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths there).

Edited June 17, 20205 yr by Harve

I didn't know there were so many big outbreaks, for me it just shows the benefit of a track and trace. It's naive across all countries to suspect there won't be any large outbreaks, but the key to it all is recognising if you are infected and then self isolating to stop the spread.

 

Totally agree about the R0 number as well, I think in the UK we are mainly OK. It does appear that some regions/areas seem to be badly affected more than others but the data that is shared does not allow us to make the assumption thoroughly.

 

Worrying for me is the growth of infection in India and Brazil in particular as I mentioned before. Seems like it has totally spiraled out of control, which is why I am all for the border restrictions/quarantine and possible air bridges with European countries in the short term at least. The news in Beijing is concerning as well as the symptoms appear to be different. But I have a hard time to believe what is coming out of China's mouth at the moment as it doesn't add up.

Air bridges with which countries? Most of the candidate countries have a lower infection rate than the UK which would make those countries wary of any agreement with the UK. The discussion about the possibility seems to be aimed at blaming "forrinaz" when those countries refuse any offer of an air bridge. The headlines "Europe says to Brits - we don't want you" are all too predictable.

Air bridges with which countries? Most of the candidate countries have a lower infection rate than the UK which would make those countries wary of any agreement with the UK. The discussion about the possibility seems to be aimed at blaming "forrinaz" when those countries refuse any offer of an air bridge. The headlines "Europe says to Brits - we don't want you" are all too predictable.

 

Sweden is probably on offer.

 

I see the UK has seeded a new outbreak in New Zealand, doesn't it make you proud??

And that was a crazy story indeed! Just goes to show even the most lauded governments can have one minor oversight and panic will ensue again. This will be just as tricky to manage from now as it was initially especially now borders are re-opening.

I'm not sure I trust everything about China's data but I do believe some things that suggest they contained it better than many European countries are broadly true. Unlike, say, the UK, I believe the virus has been indeed mostly contained to one province, and unlike France, community transmission has been eradicated more decisively, which would make China's situation a lot better than what catastrophists were claiming in March (my colleague was talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths there).

 

The recent outbreak in Beijing (cancelling flights, testing tens of thousands of people in the city in a matter of days) has made everybody quite nervy again from what I can tell. Whatever else you can say, they aren't lax at dealing with cases when they do show up. I fully expect that if I'd been to Beijing recently I'd have been asked to take a quarantine.

 

Public transport in particular is still very strictly controlled.

Air bridges with which countries? Most of the candidate countries have a lower infection rate than the UK which would make those countries wary of any agreement with the UK. The discussion about the possibility seems to be aimed at blaming "forrinaz" when those countries refuse any offer of an air bridge. The headlines "Europe says to Brits - we don't want you" are all too predictable.

 

Well the countries which need tourism to survive would be pretty keen. I am not 100% sold on the idea, it works both ways as we need to protect ourselves and other nations and hope to keep our airlines from going completely bust. Spain and Portugal seem to be pushing the idea of air bridges pretty hard.

The code for the app is open source which means it can be copied and adapted by other countries free of charge. The UK, meanwhile, blunders on trying to create its own "world-beating" app.

Speaking of blunders...

 

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